“My gut tells me we will fight in 2025,” troubling words US Air Force General Michael Minihan has issued as warning to his command — raising questions about the US, Australia, and other regional allies’ modernisation and preparedness efforts.

This convergence comes at a time of growing antagonism and sabre rattling from Beijing seeking to solve its “Taiwan problem”, reinforced by growing speculation from leading US defence leaders like former Commander, US Indo-Pacific Commander, Admiral Philip Davidson testifying to the Senate Armed Services Committee, “Taiwan is clearly one of their [Beijing’s] ambitions before then. And I think the threat is manifest during this decade, in fact in the next six years.”

This ominous warning heralds a more concerning impact for the global order, should a conflict break out of Taiwan, with ADM Davidson further adding, “I worry that they’re [Beijing] accelerating their ambitions to supplant the United States and our leadership role in the rules-based international order, which they’ve long said that they want to do that by 2050. I’m worried about them moving that target closer.”

Now, those well-documented concerns of ADM Davidson have been further reinforced by General Michael Minihan, Commander, Air Mobility Command, who recently penned a letter to “all AMC Wing Commanders” which outlined: “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025. Xi secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022.

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