professor dr. Sureyya YIGIT
Abstract. The Ukraine crisis has entered its seventh year and shows no sign of an imminent peaceful settlement. Crimea remains annexed by the Russian Federation and Eastern Ukraine, primarily the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, continue to be under occupation. In such territories, Ukraine has no government control and human rights violations continue to be reported. Therefore, the country remains torn apart and under severe duress. This research aims to identify the sequencing of the crisis, analyzing the antecedents and existing differences with similar historical processes in Ukraine as well as exploring the role of the different state and supra-state actors in the crisis, and finally, offers hypothetical scenarios, which may rule out or support the possibility of an emerging new Cold War.
Keywords: Ukraine, Donetsk, Russia, Crisis, New Cold War
The end of the Cold War eased global tensions. The threat of a nuclear confron-tation between the United States and the Soviet Union disappeared due to the disappearance of the latter. Despite the possibility of greater global cooperation and strengthening of mutual trust and confidence there remained pockets of instability.
Since the Kosovo crisis, the “colour revolutions” of the early 2000s or the brief 2008 Russo-Georgian war, there had been no major tensions within the post-Soviet space, where Russia, having passively accepted the expansion of NATO, was attempting to achieve an active presence with increased geopolitical influence. The decision of the pro-Russian Ukrainian government of Yanukovych, to reject a strengthened commercial association with the EU, was at first a sufficient factor for the reaction of the Ukrainian civil opposition and later for Russian foreign policy repercussions to unleash the most serious political and military crisis in the Post-Cold War era since the Yugoslav disintegration. It remains a crisis that possesses varying dimensions.
In this research the aim is threefold: to firstly identify the sequencing, analyzing the antecedents and existing differences with similar historical processes in this particular area; secondly, to explore the role of the different state and supra-state actors in the crisis, and finally, to offer hypothetical scenarios, which may be glimpsed in the near future, aggravating or moderating, according to the different movements of those actors, of ruling out or supporting the possibility of a new “Cold War.”
Professor of Politics and International Relations School of Politics and Diplomacy New Vision University Tbilisi, Georgia