Amna S. SANDHU
Mobeen ALI KHAN

“Today is a better day for the owners of small and medium enterprises in Pakistan. Substantial reforms at both federal and provincial levels over the past year have contributed to this improvement.”

Illango Patchamuthu, Word Bank Country Director, Pakistan

INTRODUCTION

Despite having an enormous potential in terms of abundant natural resources and geo-political location, Pakistan has been consistently struggling to reach a desired level of growth and prosperity. Though there are numerous national and international factors behind Pakistan’s socio-politico-economic unrest, persistence and optimism in Pakistani nation tend to steer the economy towards progression.

At present, economic development is the prime challenge for Pakistan. Global economic crisis coupled with bad governance has also impacted the already skewed economic growth situation in the country. Despite, a new era of economic growth and investment in different sectors, including industry, agriculture, energy, etc. has started. The current situation of Pakistan that deters international investors is dictated by the negative perception portrayed by the international media. As a result, Pakistan’s investment-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been hovering around 15% while other countries in the region like China and India have maintained the ratio well above 30%.

Table 1: Pakistan’s Foreign Direct Investment over past years

Only a decade ago, Pakistan ranked 85^th in the Ease of Doing Business, but it drastically fell to 148^th position in 2015. This decline could be attributed to many issues

such as long-hour load-shedding as well as political unrest in the country during the past years. However, most of these concerns have been resolved but that does not guarantee investors to start flocking to the country since change in perception requires significant amount of time. Though, recent developments show that Pakistan is heading on the right track (Table 1).

SITUATION ANALYSIS

The 2019 ‘Doing Business Report’ by the World Bank Group highlights that Pakistan has carried out major reforms in the past year that helped create employment opportunities and attracted foreign and local investment. In the fiscal 2017-18, the net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) received by Pakistan was $1.9 billion recording a 15.6% increase (Raza, 2018). As a result, Pakistan has advanced to 136^th position on the global ranking of Ease of Doing Business (Doing Business, 2019). According to this report, Pakistan also improved its score from 52 to 55 on the measure of absolute progress towards best practices, and performed well in the area of Protecting Minority Investors by earning 90% points in the extent of ownership and control index. The country globally ranked 26^th on the measure for governance safeguards that protect shareholders from undue board control and entrenchment.

This progress can be attributed to multiple factors though the main gamechangers for Pakistan are the combination of government policies, youth demographic and a vibrant start-up ecosystem (Ahmed and Qadir, 2018; Ahmed et al. 2019).

Table 2: Sector-wise Inflow of Net FDI in Pakistan

Source: State Bank of Pakistan, Annual Report 2018

According to the State Bank of Pakistan Annual Report 2018, Pakistan continued to attract foreign investment even though FDI inflows to South Asia during the fiscal year 2017-2018 had dropped. The major chunk of investment came from China in the form of China – Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The highest investment was made in sectors like energy and construction followed by telecommunication because of acquisition of telecom tower services by a Malaysian firm. While inflows from the US and the UK remain almost unchanged, inflows from Hong Kong grew significantly.

Institutional Reforms

Emerging markets around the globe have adopted serious reforms to advance the Ease of Doing Business in the past year. This area has witnessed a spike in reform activity worldwide, as 128 economies carried out a record 314 regulatory reforms that aimed to facilitate business climate and so has Pakistan. These developments need to be sustained and accelerated for continuous progress and to create a business-friendly environment.

The improvements mentioned above can be attributed to the reforms initiated by the incumbent policymakers. These reforms focused on areas such as business start-up, property registration, access to utilities, access to credit and effectively dealing with insolvency issues.

Firstly, some of the major barriers in the way of starting a business in Pakistan is multiple taxes, and cumbersome procedures to register and run a business. Thus, in order to facilitate the business community, the government launched an online one-stop registration system, replacing the older one that comprised an application having several forms. In the online system, the requirement of digital signature was also replaced with the personal identification number. This reduced the time and cost required to start the business. The reforms further established an active exchange of information between the registry and tax authority, reducing the hassle to register manually.

Secondly, the government introduced several amendments after many investors reported registering property as a major deterrent to investment across the country and even in the Special Economic Zones (SEZs). For example, the government has streamlined and automated the administrative process. The online system shows fee schedule and list of all necessary documents. The government also introduced measures to improve transparency of the provincial land administration system. As a result, time period needed to register property in major cities like Lahore fell by 13 days on average. However, it still requires 144 days whereas the south Asian average is 114 days. These reforms still require more steps in the right direction.

Thirdly, Pakistan ranked 167 and 166 in the provision of utilities like electricity and permissions for construction respectively (Doing Business, 2019). The report highlighted that it takes almost 161 days to get electricity connection in Pakistan whereas the regional average is 98 days. The cost for utilities is almost 50% higher in Pakistan as compared to elsewhere in the region. In order to strengthen this area and reduce the cost of production, reforms have been introduced such as reduction in gas prices for five export-oriented industries in order to make them more competitive internationally. Pakistan also initiated measures to facilitate imports and exports by developing a new container facility, enhancing customs platforms and setting up electronic document submission facility. Furthermore, the government is also working on developing a national tariff policy to address anomalies in the existing tariff structure and to facilitate business community.

Fourthly, the State Bank of Pakistan also worked on improving access to credit and financial information. The bank introduced laws to guarantee the rights of borrowers and lenders so as to inspect relevant data such as credit history. The credit bureau also expanded their borrower coverage. The policymakers announced the first-ever National Financial Inclusion Strategy (NFIS, 2015) as an effort to combine Government of Pakistan and private sector initiatives to tackle issues related to commercial investments. This strategy outlines new credit products tailored for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), as it plans to increase the proportion of SME lending to total bank credit to the private sector from 7% to 15% by 2020.

Lastly, the report discusses reforms on resolving insolvency as well. This was done by allowing the debtor to continue their business during insolvency proceedings. Consequently, Pakistan improved its position from 82^nd to 53^rd last year. Regulations have also focused on contract enforcement, tax payments and protection of intellectual property rights. These reforms aim to reduce regulatory burden on the private sector and also improve transparency in regulatory governance.

It is significant to capitalize on these improvements, however, there are ample opportunities for further enhancement in many regulations for other areas under Ease of Doing Business. The business environment can be made conducive in terms of long-term business plans through transparent and consistent policies and a more consultative process in formulating regulations and enforcement plans.

Youth Demographic

According to UNDP, Pakistan currently has the largest percentage of young people ever recorded in its history. UNDP’s report titled: “Unleashing the Potential of a Young Pakistan”, cites 64% of the population falls below the age of thirty (30) whereas 29% is between the ages of 15 and 29 years, which is defined as the youth. Never have the opportunities for social, economic and political progress been so optimistic. The National Human Development Report for Pakistan identifies the youth of Pakistan as possibly one of the most powerful forces for transformational change. The government is providing numerous opportunities and support for meaningful social, political and institutional integration of youths into the very fabric of society; the realization of the above-mentioned goals seems all the more plausible.

The youth is further enabled to succeed by the constant urbanization and recent digitization of the country (Khan et al. 2016). Google, in a study, projected Pakistan as quickly becoming a digital-first country and expectedly the fourth fastest growing digital economy by 2030. The total number of mobile phone subscribers in Pakistan has reached 151 million by 2018 which accounts for 73% tele-density. 59 million individuals are 3G/4G subscribers with total internet subscribers at about 62 million. Through improved internet access to more than 2,000 cities across the country, Pakistan is home to the third largest population of professionals related to global online gig industry after India and Bangladesh according to the central bank report. Apart from this, the State Bank of Pakistan, in its first quarterly report on the state of economy for the fiscal year 2018/19, claimed Pakistan to be figuring prominently in its Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) segment.

Moreover, in recent times, Pakistan has made unprecedented strides towards women empowerment. Entrepreneurship and social enterprises are being recognized as central to advancing women’s economic empowerment and social innovation. With social enterprises, Pakistan is playing a small yet an impressive role in women empowerment. SDPI, in a publication, “Activist to Entrepreneur”, publicized the examples of social enterprises that are supporting vulnerable women through employment and training and providing affordable products and services. The publication states that there are proportionally four times as many women-led social enterprises than for profit businesses in Pakistan.

Skill development and job creation are the most common ways in which social enterprises in Pakistan are supporting women’s empowerment and often these activities go hand-in-hand. In a survey conducted under “Activist to Entrepreneur” report mentioned above, out of 114 social enterprises with an interest in this field, 95% of the social enterprises stated that they do empower women. As most social entrepreneurs are driven almost entirely by a desire to create social impact. The survey highlights 75% of women started a social enterprise to address the social or environmental concerns or to benefit their community while 25% started the same to purely earn some income. This is a much higher proportion to that found in the studies in Brazil, India, UK and the US. This clearly demonstrates that in Pakistan, social enterprise sector is playing a significant role in women empowerment.

Another enabling factor is that Pakistan is among the most urbanized countries of South Asia where urbanization is increasing at a yearly rate of three per cent, which is the fastest in South Asia. A large population is expected to shift from majority rural areas to majority urban areas within the next two to three decades. According to the United Nations Population Division, 50% of the population will be urbanized within the period. There is a strong link between urbanization and increased GDP (Mathur, 2013, p. 38). Urbanization has greatly benefited Pakistan by promoting greater trade and market liberalization. In order for cities to drive economic growth, they need a variety of enabling factors such as a supportive state that may facilitate research and development, build infrastructure and create industrial clusters (Yap & Thuzar, (Eds.), 2012), thus highlighting the dire need for investment. As discussed, the agglomeration of economic sectors in Pakistani cities is complemented by improved infrastructure and space for innovation, paving the way for sustainable economic growth.

Hence, in order to build a quality workforce for the future, educating and training youth is a priority for policymakers. Therefore, they have recently expressed an interest to invest in research and development sector. This will act as a backbone for an internationally competitive and knowledge-based economy. As investment in the youth and R&D can lead to development of innovative products and services that drive socioeconomic growth and improve national welfare.

Start-up Ecosystem

In addition to regulatory changes, a major factor for recent increase in FDI is the vibrant start-up activities in Pakistan. The State Bank report on ‘The State of Pakistan’s Economy’ for the first quarter (2019), presents that unlike previous years where China remained the only major healthy investor in Pakistan in December 2018, Netherlands and Norway also appeared as significant investors. Sector-wise, financial sector attracted the single highest investment worth almost $138 million in one month. This was followed by chemicals with $50.9 million and construction $45.1 million. Other sectors in Pakistan such as telecom, consumer goods and oil and gas have the potential to be the major recipient of the FDI.

On average, 1,000 new companies were registered every month in the past year recording a 30% increase (Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan, 2019). The highest number, i.e. almost 50% was registered in Islamabad, 30% in Lahore and 20% in Karachi. This substantial growth in the number can be attributed to the SECP’s reforms in the Ease of Doing Business especially for the start-ups. These reforms include simplified processes as well as improved online facility for company name reservation and registration, one-window facility for registration and National Tax Number (NTN) generation, reduction in registration fee and establishing new wings to assist investors with the whole process (Jabri, 2019).

Given the skilled educated youth interested in disruptive start-ups, it was noted that after these changes, 95% of the companies were registered online, 73% as private limited companies and 24% as single member companies whereas only 3% were registered as public unlisted companies, foreign companies and limited liability partnerships. The trading sector took the lead with 260 incorporations followed by 174 in services, 163 in IT, 154 in construction, 81 in tourism, 61 in food and beverages, 41 in education, etc. Out of them, only 67 new companies reported foreign investment from Canada, China, Denmark, Germany, Jordan, Netherlands, Nigeria, Middle East, Singa-pore, Turkey, UK and US (Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan 2019).

These improvements are the direct consequences of the efforts undertaken by the government in addition to regulatory changes. For example, numerous major initiatives have been taken such as National Incubation Centers, and Digital Skills Training Programs. Substantial labor force is being trained through public-private partnerships like DigiSkills Training Program introduced by the Ministry of Information Technology and Telecom. It is an online program that trains individuals in skills that are highly demanded by the industry and then connects them to work based on a gig economy.

Moreover, Higher Education Commission (HEC, 2019) Pakistan, supports the establishment of Business Incubation Centers in the public sector universities. It provides basic infrastructure and relevant facilities to entrepreneurs and researchers. Apart from these, the Higher Education Commission (HEC) facilitates higher education institutions to research sustainable growth in various areas. The Business Incubation Centers that are called ‘Offices of Research, Innovation and Commercialization” (ORICs) serve as a pivotal point encompassing all the research activities. They also provide strategic and operational support to the research activities / programs and moreover play a central role in facilitating the outcome of the university’s researches. These offices focus essentially on turning pure knowledge into innovation, products and production processes that ultimately impact the welfare of the community.

In private sector, there are currently 52 incubation centers and acceleration programs that also offer an array of targeted resources and services. On average, 15 start-ups are enabled to graduate annually, who are financially viable and freestanding. This system is further strengthened by co-working spaces, fellowship programs, increased angel investment and the launch of global initiatives like Start-up Weekend, Start-up Grind, Lean Start-up Machine, etc. Although they primarily fund small and medium enterprises, some also support organizations that are more social and civic minded. Incubators can be found in the education sector, including MIT’s Enterprise Forum Pakistan, or Institute of Business Administration’s Centre of Entrepreneurial Development. Others are built by private enterprises such as SDPls Centre for Learning and Development (CLD) that has been providing support for social enterprises since 1998. The Social Innovation Lab was launched by Lahore University of Management Science (LUMS), which provides a testing ground for social innovators to evaluate the sustainability of their business practice. A large number of graduates enter the workforce and the government’s unrelenting efforts to promote entrepreneurship are the key factors behind this growth. Moreover, Pakistan is hosting meetings for Google Developer Group and Business Groups regularly (Yasir, 2018). They have launched local chapters of the Organization of Pakistani Entrepreneurs (OPEN) and The Indus Entrepreneurs (TiE), further adding value to domestic start-up system. Consequently, the start-up culture in Pakistan is also flourishing.

In the developed world, services sector accounts for the largest share in total output and employment. The share of services sector in Pakistan’s economy is also increasing. In fact, the growth rate is higher than the growth rate of agriculture and industrial sector. Services sector accounted for approximately 60% of GDP (SBP) and little over one third of total employment (PBS Employment Trends 2018). The services sector has strong linkages with other sectors of the economy such as providing essential inputs to agriculture and manufacturing sectors. The increasing growth rate of services sector is attributed to the collective development of finance and insurance sectors along with the extremely accommodative policies adopted by the State Bank of Pakistan.

Investment Promotion Bodies

Recently, institutions like Board of Investment (BoI), Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) and the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) have made impressive efforts to promote investment and Ease of Doing Business in Pakistan (Abbas, 2018). They have initiated a meaningful dialogue with industry experts and policymakers that highlighted severe issues in business environment as well as policy flaws and technical inadequacies that act as a barrier to foreign investment. Shazia Syed, President of Overseas Investors Chamber Commerce and Industry, in an interview with Business Recorder on May 20, 2019, states that foreign investors’ interest is still limited to Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) as opposed to greenfield projects. This is because M&A transactions are without any hassle of regulations, approvals and delays.

Prime Minister Imran Khan while monitoring the BoI activities has taken steps to ensure socio-politico-economic stability in order to create a fair and attractive business ecosystem. BoI has been notified to task a steering committee to make efforts to improve the Ease of Doing Business (Abbas, 2018). The Prime Minister himself is the chair of the committee that also includes representation of ministers and members from five leading industries. The committee will introduce reforms to make the overall investment climate conducive for foreign investment. They have further established a special complaint and suggestion cell to facilitate the business community, address their complaints and further incorporate their suggestions in policy making.

OPPORTUNITIES FOR FUTURE

The wide-open space provided by Pakistan has the potential to develop an appetite for foreigners to invest in Pakistan. Investors while deciding whether to invest or not consider multiple factors such as the facilities available in the country as well as the business-friendly ecosystem that is supported by the government policies. Federal level legislation has to be aligned with provincial interventions. The government needs to introduce stringent measures such as strengthening institutions, ensuring supportive policies, long-term sectoral plans, skilled labor force, capital market reforms, etc. to make the business environment competitive.

Pakistan has a strategic geopolitical location. With a mega infrastructure project, like CPEC, the government aims to craft policies that attract foreign investment. Research (Tahir et al. 2015; Ahmed et al. 2013) shows that significant inflows of foreign investment lead to greater economic growth for a country through access to investors’ expertise, experience and networks, thus, boosting employment, greater productivity and making value chains efficient. The government is undertaking promising measures to improve Ease in Doing Business by introducing productive and investor-friendly policies such as establishment of investment facilitation centers to address bottlenecks in an efficient and timely manner. Inspired by Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad, Prime Minister Imran Khan has accepted that making legitimate money is a right of investors and businesses (Ali, 2018). Therefore, optimizing the relationship between public and private sector to entice more opportunities for domestic and foreign investment.

Furthermore, the start-up system in Pakistan is on the rise given the youth demographic and mature supportive policies. Start-ups are turning youth into job providers rather than job seekers as they revitalize neighborhoods and commercialize new technologies with innovative and transformative products and services. The National Human Development Report by UNDP (2018) reveals that Pakistan enjoys the status of being the second country in the world with significant young working-age population. Pakistan has a population of 208 million and is one of the most populous countries in the world, thus, it is a huge market for growing businesses. Foreign investors are attracted to countries with skilled labor force and knowledgeable workers.

Domestic investors have exhibited the ability to repose confidence in the system by having a personal stake and entering into joint ventures with foreign investors. According to the 021 Disrupt Investment Roundtable White Paper released by The Nest I/O (2019), local investors have found a strong foothold and are also attracting foreign investment in either global businesses that are running operations in Pakistan or in indigenous products and services such as Telenor Microfinance Bank and CarFirst. They also highlighted three most prominent joint ventures with international partners, including Sarmayacaar, SparkLabs and i2i ventures. The year 2019 is expected to fuel more capital for both local start-ups and technology companies as Pakistan has started to gain traction as one of the most promising start-up eco systems in the Asian region.

Lastly, China has agreed to extend duty free access on additional 313 tariff lines from July 1^st 2019 as part of the second phase of the China – Pakistan Free Trade Agreement (CPFTA). Out of these 313 priority lines, 103 are agriculture-based categories, 28 for seafood, poultry milk, honey, etc., 24 for yarn and carpets, 21 for prepared food stuff, 20 for leather, 12 for cereals and fruits and 07 for oilseeds and vegetables (Hasan, 2019). As a consequence, Abdul Razak Dawood, Adviser to PM on Commerce and Textile, discussed with Dawn on April 24^th, 2019 in an interview that it is expected that the country’s exports could potentially increase by $ 500 million within a period of 18 months as seen after the first CPFTA in 2007-2008 the bilateral trade went up from $4.77 billion to $16.6 billion. This presents a head-start to tap Chinese market in short to medium-term. This CPFTA would also eliminate the issue of under-invoicing and routing material through the third country.

CONCLUSION

To further improve the flow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Pakistan needs to globally showcase its positive aspects, opportunities in the country and areas of investment. Every investor knows that no country is without issues. What makes the difference is how does the government chooses to address and manage these issues. Current Prime Minister, Imran Khan has vowed to take promising initiatives to maximize facilitation and simplify the tedious procedures in order to bring Pakistan under 100^th position in the ranking of Ease of Doing Business Index.

These significant steps have begun the process of Ease of Doing Business but the task is challenging and Pakistan has a long way to go. It requires dynamic political leadership that is determined to pursue a pragmatic reform agenda. Going forward, the government efforts to transform regulatory framework, improve ease of doing business, security situation and macroeconomic stability, aim to instill confidence in investors both foreign and domestic. Higher education institutions also have a role to play in creating a new breed of young educated Pakistanis, who are fit to lead the business industry with innovation and ingenuity. Business community has the potential to work as the bleeding edge of economic development. Therefore, in order to achieve the medium and long-term goals of Pakistan’s economic policy, it is necessary for all the stakeholders to work together to attract foreign direct investment and use it wisely to generate profits for investors and to boost the Pakistan’s economy.

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