Dr. Vasile NAZARE
Abstract: The Syrian revolution, that has been so enthusiastically ignited under the influence of the Arab Spring phenomenon, unlike the ones started in Egypt, Tunisia or Libya, has brought to surface certain aspects which helped shaping theories regarding the revolutions from the 21st century.
Without any doubt, the Arab phenomenon has confirmed yet again the truth of a well-known thesis: the domino effect; the myth surrounding the invulnerability of authoritarian regimes; the decisive role of the internal factors; the inability of force regimens to prevent and stop other authoritarian regimes; revolutions do not always give birth to democratic forms of government, but sometimes they end up in absurd and devastating civil wars, especially when there are outside actors involved (see Libya’s case).
As opposed to other revolutions, the Syrian one presents unique elements such as: it didn’t remove the autocratic leadership of Bashar al-Assad due to people’s conviction or coercion to the system and also because of a strong, organized and loyal army. President’s followers have been supported by only a small part of population, a maximum of 20%, mostly coming from the Alawite and Christian communities and the Sunni bourgeoisie, all of them being afraid of Jihadists ascension. Governing over Syria has been and it still remains a family business, military commanders and all relevant decision making posts being held by family members or Alawite representatives; the “majority of minority” in ruling has proven to be of great efficiency in forging the Assad state; the most optimistic analysts have underestimated Syrian army’s capability to withstand and counterstrike.
Keywords: civil war, revolution, Arab socialism, Arab Spring, authoritarian regime, Islamic state, Sunnis, Shiites, proxy war
Conferenţiar universitar doctor, Asociaţia de Geopolitică I. Conea