dr. Vasile NAZARE
Abstract. No one could have foreseen the Brexit outcome due to the success of UK’s prime minister’s negotiations before the referendum (EU being ready to make several concessions regarding four domains: a. Sovereignty – parliament’s ability to modify or reject the implementation of EU decisions; b. Currency – the acknowledgement that euro is not the only currency available, which is also a mean of protecting states outside euro zone; c. Accented integration – the United Kingdom doesn’t want to become part of a tighter union, nor does it wish to contribute to the birth of an European Mega state; d. Social benefits – cutting emigrants access to social benefits and allowing it only after four years since residential visa is obtained), but also because surveys results’ from the 23rd of June were still favorable to the pro-European side (polls by IpsosMori and YouGov were extremely optimistic, predicting a win with almost 52%-48%, Popullus was forecasting a 55%-45%, Uhat UK Thinks Institute – 51%-49%; while polls that showed a pro-Brexit orientation were: ICM – 53%-47%; Opinium Institute – 45%-44%; TNS Institute – 43%-41%; ORB Institute – 49%-47%) and last, but not least, the pro-European state of mind of Scottish, Welsh and Irish people. To sum up, every aspect was ready to infirm the ”lack of loyalty” and euroscepticism of Great Britain towards Europe (de Gaulle).
The day of the vote, the 23rd of June, was going to enter history as the darkest day in the entire UE life of six decades. Growth was sudden replaced by contraction and integration by dissolution. The Great Britain, an EU member since 1973 and the fifth economic power in the whole world, has opted towards exiting the union. The referendum, with a high participation rate (72.2% from a 46 million electorate) has given an unexpected pro-Brexit twist (51.9% – 17.410.742 million), saying to get of the EU and asking the British government to activate Lisbon Treaty’s article 50, meaning that in the following two years UK should arrange its own exchange accords with the European market, just like Norway, Island or Switzerland.
Annalists opinions regarding the consequences of Brexit in different fields such as economics, geopolitics and security (European or global) are either optimistic or pessimistic, seeing the light or being afraid of the shadows, hoping for success or running from the disaster of both parties. Here, there is no competition between UK and UE, because we are talking about their own existence and survival. In Mark’s Rutte opinion (prime-minister of Holland), ”Brexit will transform the Kingdom into a medium economy, placed in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, between US and Europe”, scenario that will turn out to be ”severe for London’s financial center”.
Key words: integration, adhesion, exit, euroscepticism, sovereignty, commonwealth, European security, global security
Conferenţiar universitar doctor, Asociaţia de Geopolitică I. Conea