Marian Vasile NAZARE

In spite of the 2010-2011 Arab revolts and the increase of the oil and shale gas production (through hydraulic fracturing) in the USA and Canada, Saudi Arabia has remained the primary oil producer and exporter on the world market, the unchallenged leader of OPEC, the country which, for five decades, influenced the evolution and the regulation of the price of this resource at the European, USA and Far East stock exchanges. Surprisingly, starting with the second half of June 2014, OPEC, with a production of 30 million barrels/day and a share of 40% in the world production, has encouraged the appearance of an alarming economic phenomenon that tends to propagate: energy dumping or oil deflation. This fact has been confirmed during the Vienna OPEC summit (November 27) by the adoption of the decision of not diminishing the production (the offer). While in January 2013, the Brent Crude Oil or WTI price was floating at around $115/barrel, at the end of January 2015, this price fluctuated between $47 (Brent Crude Oil) and $49 (WTI oil), which means a 40% decrease in only one year; for the next period, a decrease down to $40 and a stabilization at $47/barrel for 2015, a slight increase and a stabilization at $63/barrel in 2016 are expected.
The gambit of Saudi Arabia at the Vienna OPEC summit, the selling of oil at prices below the break-even point (an approach also sustained by its huge forex reserves, approximately $750 billion), is in fact a part of this oil monarchy’s strategy to objectivize a series of regional economic, political and geopolitical interests (limitation of the increase of Iran’s influence in the region; countering the Shiites’ hegemonic tendency toward the Sunnites in the Middle East; elimination of the material and military Iranian support for Syria and Assad’s isolation; fighting the Islamic State; stabilization of Yemen, where, with Iranian logistic support, the houthis have recently taken over the power), as well as other global interests (maintaining the market share and the position of leading producer and exporter; countering and discouraging the American companies’ assault regarding the increase of shale oil production; inducing and amplifying a number of economic difficulties – contractions, crises, budget deficits – of states such as Russia, which provides material, military and diplomatic support to Syria, since it also needs to deal with Western sanctions regarding the Ukraine conflict; or Nigeria, which is in open conflict with islamic insurgents; or Venezuela, Cuba’s only ally, whose economic help contributes to the furtherance of the socialist political regime).
Saudi Arabia’s and the USA’s use of the persuasive political and geopolitical effects of the oil advantage against the common enemies – Iran, Russia, Venezuela and their allies – has become a characteristic of the 21st century geopolitics.