Delfina ERTANOWSKA^

“Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past.”
George Orwell

At the turn of 2021 and 2022, I wrote a series of articles on conspiracy theories and disinformation as instruments of information warfare during the COVID-19 pandemic. It was an extraordinarily broad subject, rich with every conceivable product of the human imagination, deliberately fuelled by Russia and China, which together were responsible for around 75% of all online disinformation relating to the pandemic and COVID-19 vaccines [Ertanowska, D., Melnyk, I. 2022].

It was during this period that George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four experienced a remarkable resurgence in popularity. Even then, it was evident that many readers fundamentally misunderstood the novel’s message. Orwell was not writing a prophecy about the future; rather, he was depicting methods drawn largely from the realities of the Soviet Union and the brutality of Soviet security services.

However, carefully selected quotations, stripped of their original context, proved highly effective. Phrases such as “Big Brother is watching you” [Orwell, G. 2020] were invoked to suggest mass surveillance-imagery far more reminiscent of Nicolae Ceauşescu’s Romania or the sophisticated systems of state surveillance employed in modern China than anything connected with a virus. Likewise, the Party’s slogans –”War is Peace. Freedom is Slavery. Ignorance is Strength.” [Orwell, G. 2020] – were appropriated as arguments against COVID-19 vaccination.

At the same time, the conspiracy theory claiming that vaccines contained micro-chips designed to control the population was already gaining considerable traction. Today, we will examine these old theories in their new forms – how they have evolved, adapted, and continue to be used to manipulate audiences across social media.

There are no studies encompassing the entire global population that could de-termine the exact percentage of people who believe in conspiracy theories. However, we can draw on findings from the European Social Survey, which covered 16 European countries, and the study Understanding Climate Change Conspiracy Beliefs: A Comparative Outlook, which examined eight countries across the world: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, Lebanon, Morocco, South Africa and the United States.

The European Social Survey considered belief in a range of conspiracy theories relating to politics, science and COVID-19, finding that approximately one-third of respondents (33%) agreed with at least one conspiracy theory [Becchetti, L., Lubicz, Ch. 2023]. The climate change study, which focused on the belief that “climate change is a hoax”, [Stockemer, D., Bordeleau, J-N. 2024] found that 18.7% of respondents agreed with this statement, while around 30% were uncertain.

On this basis, it is reasonable to assume that roughly one-quarter of the general population either believes in at least one conspiracy theory or, at the very least, does not rule out the possibility that such a theory may be true.

“UKRAINE IS A WESTERN PROJECT,
AND THE WAR WAS PROVOKED BY NATO”

This narrative claims that Russia was forced into war by the actions of Western states. One of its most common assertions is that NATO was responsible for provoking the conflict. Since 2022, the Kremlin has consistently promoted disinformation narratives centred on alleged “secret biological laboratories”, the supposed “genocide in Donbas”, the “2014 coup d’état”, and the need to combat “Nazism” [Hern, A. 2024] through the so–called “denazification” of Ukraine. These themes have formed one of the principal pillars of Russian information operations targeting the European Union since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

As these narratives gradually lost their ability to attract public attention, Russia increasingly returned to older disinformation campaigns in Central and Eastern Europe. In Poland in particular, this has involved reigniting historical grievances surrounding the Volhynia tragedy. Similar narratives featured prominently in Russian information campaigns between 2012 and 2018, although they were largely overshadowed first by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequently by Russia’s full-scale military aggression against the sovereign state of Ukraine.

Politicians associated with the far right and pro-Russian circles frequently compete over estimates of the number of Polish victims, while rarely acknowledging that atrocities were committed by both sides. During the same period, units of the Polish Home Army (Armia Krajowa), the National Armed Forces (Narodowe Siły Zbrojne) and the Freedom and Independence organisation (Wolność i Niezawisłość) were also responsible for the deaths of approximately 22,000 Ukrainians in Western Galicia. This aspect of the historical record, however, does not fit comfortably within contemporary prop-gandistic narratives.

AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF THE ‘ISLAMISATION OF EUROPE’

At the same time, anti-Muslim rhetoric is periodically revived whenever it proves politically expedient. It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that these themes are largely interchangeable: when one ceases to provoke strong emotional reactions, another is readily substituted in its place.

In recent days, social media accounts belonging to aspiring right-wing politicians have circulated a false claim alleging the existence of an illegal mosque in Kraków. Competing interpretations quickly followed. One politician called for “all mosques in Kraków have to be closed”, despite the fact that the city has no mosque. Others falsely claimed that the existing Arab Cultural Centre [Rafał Buca – Działalność Polityczna. 2026] was in fact an illegal mosque and demanded its closure. As a result, this cultural centre has become the target of online harassment and sustained criticism within radical Polish internet media and actors.

Experts in information manipulation emphasise that the primary objective of contemporary propaganda is often not to persuade audiences to accept a single version of events, but rather to generate confusion and undermine trust in all sources of information. Most disinformation campaigns therefore rely on preexisting narratives that have already proved effective at provoking strong emotional responses, deepening social polarisation and weakening public confidence in democratic institutions. In Poland, these narratives have also become an increasingly visible element of electoral campaigning and anti-government political messaging.

“THE GREAT REPLACEMENT”

The transition from the previous narrative to the Great Replacement theory is a natural one, as the two are closely interconnected and frequently appear together in short-form content on platforms such as Facebook Reels, Instagram and TikTok.

The Great Replacement theory claims that there is a deliberate plan to replace Europe’s native populations with migrants from outside the continent. Pro-Kremlin media regularly portray Europe as a civilisation being “destroyed by migration”, presenting immigration as an existential threat to European identity, culture and security.

Conversely, radical Islamist organisations promote an opposing but equally polarising narrative, claiming that Western governments are engaged in a systematic campaign against Muslims living in Europe. Although these narratives appear contra-dictory, they perform a similar function: they deepen social divisions, reinforce perceptions of civilisational conflict and fuel mutual distrust.

It is important to recognise that contemporary anti-Muslim sentiment is often reinforced by disinformation of the kind discussed earlier. The recent false claim concerning an alleged illegal mosque in Kraków provides a clear example of how fabricated stories can be used to inflame existing prejudices and generate public hostility towards minority communities.

Two years ago, I also examined conspiracy theories employing precisely the same rhetorical framework in relation to Ukrainian refugees in Central and Eastern Europe. At that time, many of the allegations now directed at Muslim migrants were instead aimed at people fleeing Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. While the target audience has changed, the underlying mechanisms of manipulation remain remarkably consistent: established narratives are simply adapted to fit new political and social circumstances while continuing to exploit fear, uncertainty and existing societal tensions.

Jennifer A. Whitson and Adam D. Galinsky demonstrated that “when individuals are unable to exercise genuine control over their environment, compensatory psychological mechanisms are activated. People begin to perceive connections between random stimuli and unrelated objects, thereby imposing meaning on present and future events and creating the impression that the future can be anticipated.” They further observed that “the more severe the consequences of a particular event, the more likely people are to assume that it was not the result of chance, but rather the product of deliberate design”. [Teorie Spiskowe – dlaczego w nie wierzymy? Psyche Plus 2021]

DAJJAL, TECHNOLOGY, THE DEVIL, AND THE “MARK OF THE BEAST”

In social media environments, there is a growing prevalence of conspiracy theories that combine Islamic eschatology with the development of modern technologies. Within these narratives, solutions such as identification microchips, biometric systems, artificial intelligence, and 5G infrastructure are portrayed as elements preparing the arrival of the Dajjal, or as a contemporary interpretation of the motif of the “Mark of the Beast”. Such framings contribute to narratives grounded in fears of lost autonomy, surveillance, and the global control of societies.

It should, however, be emphasised that such interpretations are not supported by mainstream Islamic theology or by the positions of the majority of recognised Muslim scholars, who regard them as unfounded speculations disseminated primarily by conspiracy-oriented circles and online influencers. These actors frequently instrumentalise religious motifs to reinforce disinformation narratives and to enhance their emotional appeal and persuasive impact.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, similar conspiracy theories circulated widely on social media, claiming that vaccines contained microchips used to monitor individuals or that they represented a contemporary form of the “Mark of the Beast” described in the Book of Revelation. As a result, in certain religious communities and among conspiracy theorists, vaccines were framed as instruments of satanic forces or as harbingers of eschatological events. Research indicates that these narratives combined religious motifs with misinformation concerning emerging technologies, drawing on biblical symbolism to strengthen their message and to generate fear surrounding vaccination, despite the fact that such interpretations are not part of the official teachings of the major Christian churches.

This represents a clear example of a coincidental convergence and the strategic appropriation of the same conspiracy framework, wherein factual elements are selec-tively reframed and manipulated in order to align them with a chosen religion, tradition, or cultural context.

References:

1. Becchetti, L., Lubicz, Ch. (2023). The socioeconomic roots of conspiracy beliefs. AICCON Research Center.

2. Ertanowska, D., Melnyk, I. (2022). “Media Społecznościowe jako przestrzeń dezinformacji o Covid-19: czynnik rosyjski”. W: Zagrożenia Bezpieczeństwa W Procesach Globalizacji, red. H. Chałupczak. Wydawnictwo UMCS, Wydawnictwo Akademii Zamojskiej, s. 473-487.

3. Hern, A. (2024). Online manipulation expert Renée DiResta: ‘Conspiracy theories shape our politics in extremely mainstream ways’. The Guardian.
   URL: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/jul/14/renee-diresta-invisble-rulers-internet-algorithms-media-disinformation-ai?utm_

4. Orwell, G. (2020). Rok 1984. Warszawa.

5. Rafał Buca (2026). “Działalność polityczna”. Facebook.
   URL: https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=122311286966034458&set=a.122109041480034458

6. Stockemer, D., Bordeleau, J.-N. (2024). Understanding climate change conspiracy beliefs: A comparative outlook. Harvard Kennedy School.
   URL: https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/understanding-climate-change-conspiracy-beliefs-a-comparative-outlook/?utm_

7. “Teorie spiskowe – dlaczego w nie wierzymy?” (2021). Psyche Plus.