Dr. Cosmin PĂCURARU

On Monday, November 11, the COP 29 summit began in Baku, Azerbaijan. COP 29 is the 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2024. The event will take place over the next two weeks, with tens of thousands of delegates expected to attend.

Fig. 1 – Baku Convention Centre – the building where COP 29 is taking place (source: cop29.az)

There is no doubt that all countries must make efforts to reduce the impact of pollution, but this should not be done at the expense of national security.

The situation is complicated.
Donald Trump won last week’s elections, and it is likely that in the first few weeks of his term, he will pull the United States out of the Paris Agreement, the international climate accord signed nearly a decade ago, and push for the return of fossil fuels in the U.S. energy mix, which will most likely extend to the European one as well. Let us not forget that after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Europe replaced Russian natural gas with LNG imports from Qatar and the United States.

On the other hand, China, the country with the largest pollution on the planet, is increasingly committed to reducing carbon emissions and has become the global leader in implementing renewable energy.

As shown in some articles, China, holding a global monopoly on metals and rare earths, and planning an increase in the processing of fuels for nuclear power plants, is involved in green energy projects around the world. Exports of government-subsidized machinery and components from Beijing have flooded the planet, making many countries dependent on photovoltaic and wind energy production capacities and lithium-based storage capabilities.

Both superpowers aim for as much geopolitical influence as possible, and the climate debate has become a battleground.

It’s hard to say who will emerge victorious from this confrontation, since one of the largest energy consumers, the European Union, is wavering between imported gas, in which the United States plays an essential role, and Chinese-made renewable energy installations. Germany is 50% dependent on Chinese lithium.
At COP 29, China is poised to expand its market, looking towards Africa and Europe.

U.S. Representatives at COP 29, led by Jonathan Pershing, a senior U.S. climate negotiator under the Obama and Biden administrations, lack a clear mandate and credibility due to the expected shift in climate and energy policies following the change in the White House on January 20, 2025.

China is represented by Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang, a close ally of Xi Jinping, who is prepared to create contacts and set up future contracts.

Expectations from COP 29 Summit

Certainly, each country will report on its emissions reductions and investments in technologies aimed at combating climate change. However, this does not address the growing demand for energy.

Discussions will cover technical solutions, energy policies, and financing solutions, with world leaders sending signals about the commitments of the countries they represent to reduce pollution and mitigate climate change. Various proposals negotiated by the representatives of participating countries over time are likely to be approved. There will certainly be a consensus to support global emissions reductions, but it remains to be seen whether the solutions will be implemented, given that progress has been too slow to limit the rise in global temperatures. Since COP summits began in 1995, emissions and temperatures have continued to rise, and we see the world facing extreme climate changes.

This year’s meeting is likely to generate a few major agreements: a new annual climate finance goal, an agreement on the functioning of multilateral carbon credit markets, and larger aid pledges for countries already affected by climate disasters.

Looking to the Past, We Draw a Conclusion

For 2024, Azerbaijan holds the presidency of COP29. In 2025, the presidency of COP30 will be held by Brazil. A year earlier, in 2023, COP28 took place in Egypt, and COP27 in 2022 was held in the United Arab Emirates.

In other words, the non-aligned countries that are part of the BRICS group, led by the People’s Republic of China, are gaining a global role.

BRICS is an intergovernmental organization that has evolved into a geopolitical bloc made up primarily of dictatorships or autocracies, with the goal of changing the world order. The founding members are Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, to which Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates have joined, with Turkey and Azerbaijan set to join as well, following invitations in October 2024. Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Nigeria, and Uganda are also among the countries invited.

After Vladimir Putin’s visit to Azerbaijan in August this year, the country made a gift to him: it submitted its application for BRICS membership.
It is worth noting that the UN, through Secretary-General António Guterres, attended this year’s BRICS meeting in Russia, which was hosted by Vladimir Putin.

It is clear to anyone that neither the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Azerbaijan, nor Brazil have a strong connection to renewable energy, as all these countries are major producers, users, or exporters of fossil fuels.

Fig. 2 – The energy mix of the COP-hosting countries (Source – ourworldindata.org)

Unfortunately, we can draw only one conclusion: The United Nations has come under the control of a group of dictatorships that seek to change the world order and legitimize the People’s Republic of China.

Note: This article was originally published by the author in Romanian on contributors.ro.