Cosmin PĂCURARU, PhD
COP 29 in the shadow of BRICS
COP 29 is actually the 29th United Nations (UN) conference dedicated to climate change. Started on November 11, it is taking place for two weeks in Baku, concluding on November 22. It should be noted that last year COP 28 took place in the United Arab Emirates, COP 27 in 2022 in Egypt, and the one in 2025 will be held in Brazil. All these countries are members of the geopolitical bloc led by the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation, and it seems that the United Nations has begun to legitimize the countries in this “club of dictators.” We also add that this autumn, the UN Secretary-General, the Portuguese Antonio Guterres, attended the 16th meeting of this “select group” of countries and that Azerbaijan made a gift to Vladimir Putin after his visit to Baku by submitting an application to join BRICS.
Foto cop29.az
We note that Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan, and Brazil are among the countries that produce, process, and export fossil fuels, which discredits any document emanating from these COP conferences, discredits the UN, and any action to reduce climate change. The discrediting also comes from the fact that the COP is presided over by President Ilham Aliyev and is sponsored by companies owned by the Aliyev family or their close associates. Azerbaijan has been ruled for 21 years with an iron fist by an autocrat, the second in the chain of hereditary dictatorship started by Heydar Aliyev, Ilham’s father, in 1967. It is impossible not to mention the scandalous “caviar diplomacy“, which is, in fact, a hybrid warfare action carried out by the Azerbaijani leadership in European Union institutions to cover up corruption (ranked 157 out of 180 according to transparency.org), human rights violations, and to facilitate the export of gas and oil to the EU.
New York Times journalists estimate that no agreement will be reached at COP 29.
Baku – a fertile ground for hybrid warfare
The European Union is participating with a large delegation at COP 29 and is calling for even more action in this “critical decade” in “establishing a new global goal on climate finance, with increased public and private contributions to support developing countries in their climate change actions, in finalizing negotiations under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement on international carbon markets, in phasing out fossil fuels, and in advancing global adaptation and resilience policies to climate change.” Efforts to detach the European Union from Russian gas exist, but Azerbaijan will likely sell 55 billion cubic meters of gas to the EU in 2024, about the same amount that the Russian Federation will sell. The EU will remain under the monopoly of gas imports from countries under dictatorship, as we showed in an analysis published in Karandeniz Press in August 2024. Additionally, the European Union has also come under the monopoly held by the People’s Republic of China in renewable energy.
The United States is present at COP 29 with an unrepresentative delegation that does not have an explicit mandate. It was to be expected because Donald Trump, the elected president who will begin his term in January 2025, will bring about a change in energy and environmental policies, steering the American federation towards business and energy supply security, with even the possibility that the USA might withdraw from the Paris Agreement.
In contrast, the People’s Republic of China has many initiatives, as expected. It is normal because it holds the global monopoly on metals and rare earth elements, which are components of the electricity generation capacities from photovoltaics (90%) and wind (over 50%), which generate the monopoly on the production of equipment and subassemblies in the renewable energy industry. So at COP 29, it is the most favorable opportunity for the People’s Republic of China to expand its market, as the technologies accepted at this global conference are only those in which the Chinese have assisted Azerbaijan and where they have advanced technology and a production monopoly, namely: wind, solar, hydro, and hydrogen production.
How China Wins with Azerbaijan as a Proxy
The novelty is that there is a desire to establish a Climate Finance Action Fund (CFAF), to which each country would contribute one billion dollars. The fund will be headquartered in Baku. This fund will invest in renewable energy and support climate projects in developing countries, with half of its resources allocated to limiting the temperature increase to just 1.5 degrees and 20% going towards a rapid response and disaster relief program.
In other words, the People’s Republic of China has achieved its goal: all countries will contribute to a fund from which renewable energy production facilities produced in China will be purchased. In translation, all countries will invest in the economy of the People’s Republic of China and in the economic war (part of the hybrid war) through which this dictatorship will make the countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America dependent on it, that is, precisely those that are developing.
Pollution in Baku
Over 200 countries are represented with delegations, and it is estimated (the data has not yet been made public) that over 10,000 representatives from various governmental or non-governmental organizations have been present over these two weeks.
The hypocrisy of COP 29 also lies in the fact that almost all the personalities used a private jet to travel to Baku. On the Sunday before COP 29 began, 45 private jets landed. “For CEOs who claim to care about tackling the climate crisis, using a private jet to get to COP 29 shows a flagrant hypocrisy,” said Alethea Warrington, head of energy, aviation, and heat at climate action organization Possible.
British researchers (not a joke!) from University College London (UCL) estimate that 60% of the greenhouse gas emissions from COP26 were attributed to international travel. To highlight the impact, they created a tool that calculates the carbon footprint of private jets arriving in Baku.
What did Romania do in Baku?
Let’s start with Emil Constantinescu, the former president of Romania, who is part of the International Advisory Committee. I believe he does not realize the geopolitical games he is legitimizing.
Romania has been involved for some time in various multinational projects that include Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Austria. None of these have even been started. Since the early 2000s, there have been discussions about the Nabucco Pipeline, AGRI, or White Stream. All these projects have been halted for various reasons, which we analyzed in Karandeniz Press in May 2024.
Right at the beginning of COP 29, Sebastian Burduja, the Minister of Energy, participated in the initiation of a document to launch the “Vertical Gas Corridor”. This project is nothing more than the reheating of the old AGRI project, initiated in 2010 in Tbilisi, Georgia. Back then, the Russian Federation and Azerbaijan were honorable countries being introduced into various joint projects with the European Union. Meanwhile, these countries have deviated and allied themselves with the BRICS geopolitical bloc, which seeks to overturn the current international agreements. The Russian Federation started the unacceptable war in Ukraine, and Azerbaijan and Turkey, the two sister countries, allied with China and Russia for a new world order.
Another project that the European Union wants Romania to be a partner in is the “Green Corridor,” which is a submarine cable connecting Azerbaijan to Europe under the Black Sea. This cable will be direct current and will transport the “green energy” produced in Azerbaijan. The problem is that Azerbaijan doesn’t produce much renewable energy. According to the 2022 World Fact Book data, the Azerbaijani energy mix was: 93.6% from fossil fuels, 0.2% from solar, 0.3% from wind, 0.4% from biomass and waste, and 5.5% from hydro. In other words, the Azerbaijanis will sell us gas energy for a few years until the Chinese install their windmills and panels. According to the Romanian minister’s statements, “the project company will become operational within a maximum of 30 days.”
Maybe we need an analysis of the new reality!
In the current context, the goal of having multiple energy sources needs to be re-evaluated. If the BRICS geopolitical bloc takes increasingly hostile positions towards the Euro-Atlantic countries bloc, it is possible that investments in these projects will be pointless, with the money coming from the taxes and duties of European Union citizens, including those of Romania.
Having experienced the “Russian energy stranglehold,” which was partially mitigated after its tightening from 2018 and which exacerbated the energy crisis generated by the war in Ukraine, it is possible that a coalition of dictatorships we are still dependent on could generate another energy crisis. However, Azerbaijan, an alternative energy reservoir for Europe, depends politically on Russia, Turkey, and increasingly evidently, China. Through Turkey passes the alternative energy corridor that supplies Europe with gas. Europe has connected with China through the renewable energy capacities it has imported in recent years.
The submarine cable that the European Union wants to bring direct current from Azerbaijan is a major vulnerability, especially when we analyze the hybrid attacks in the Baltic Sea: the cutting of the communication submarine cable that connects the continent to the Scandinavian Peninsula by a Chinese ship, the damage caused by another Chinese ship to the submarine gas pipeline connecting Finland to Estonia, or the damage to North Stream.
The European Union has not clarified its relationship with the United States after the Russian Federation’s attack on Ukraine and the onset of the European energy crisis, despite the significant U.S. assistance in LNG supply. We observe that the EU shifts the responsibility for security, including energy security, onto the United States, and they do not wish to assume it at any cost. The European Union is a major global economic power, but its members do not act with the cohesion they should have, with some members having different agendas and interests, which gives it a lack of predictability. Trump desires a strong European Union that can ensure its own security, including energy security.
The European Union has multiple energy dependencies that non-allied countries can exploit, generating new major crises. It is true that the United States has always helped Europe, being the “firefighter on duty”, but Donald Trump’s slogan, “Make America Great Again,” would translate into Romanian for all of Europe as ” brother, brother, but cheese costs money!”
Romania has energy advantages. Starting from the gas reserves it has and the geographical location that gives it geopolitical importance, still unrecognized, we need to clarify medium and long-term objectives, understand the hybrid attacks we have been victims of, and counter potential hybrid attacks. Thus, we must understand that we need to explain to our European allies and the Union leadership what we intend to do and negotiate with the European Commission for joint actions in ensuring energy security, as we have this strength.
The author’s article appeared in romanian on karandeniz-press.ro