CHO Han-bum
At the 9th Plenary Session of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) in December 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un declared a complete severance of relations with South Korea and presented the ‘Anti-U.S. Combat Principle’ focusing on strengthening national defense and nuclear capabilities. He emphasized expanding strategic cooperation with anti-imperialist countries and joint international actions against imperialism, signaling an intensification of North Korea’s new Cold War strategy.
North Korea’s new Cold War strategy has been in full swing since the breakdown of the 2019 DPRK-USA Hanoi Summit. North Korea reverted to its traditional approach after its strategy to improve relations with South Korea and the U.S. for tangible benefits, based on its nuclear arsenal, faced setbacks. In January 2021, at the party’s 8th Congress, Kim Jong-un pointed out that the essence of the U.S.’s policies toward North Korea never changes and emphasized the need to expand anti-imperialist capabilities and solidarity. In particular, Kim indicated an expansion of cooperation with socialist countries, specifically fore-casting increased collaboration with China and Russia. In December 2022, at a WPK meeting, he defined the current international situation as a new Cold War and multipolar structure. He also stressed the reality of a global-scale new Cold War and the strengthening of anti-U.S. and anti–Western alliances in his speech at the Supreme People’s Assembly in September 2022.
The core of North Korea’s new Cold War strategy involves China and Russia. With the intensification of U.S.-China strategic competition and the impact of the Ukraine war, a confrontation between the U.S.-led democratic camp and the autho-ritarian camp represented by China and Russia is forming, giving momentum to North Korea’s version of the new Cold War strategy. Despite North Korea’s numerous nuclear development activities since 2018, it’s essential to recognize that the UN Security Council has become virtually inactive. Additionally, China and Russia are rapidly expanding their nuclear infrastructure to gain an upper hand in the nuclear competition with the U.S.
Following the failure of the 2019 DPRK-USA Hanoi Summit, North Korea focused on strengthening its relationship with China, and the primary reason for the sustenance of the North Korean regime, despite severe sanctions, is China. However, China, being at the center of the international supply chain, finds it difficult to overtly support North Korea’s violations of international order.
North Korea is using Russia as a new breakthrough in its new Cold War strategy. In 2023, North Korea intensified its relationship with Russia to alleviate the costly deadlock in inter-Korean and DPRK – USA relations, enhancing its new Cold War strategy. Due to the Russia – Ukraine war, Russia has discovered the strategic impor-tance of North Korea as a military supply base, including ammunition, a major reason for the rapidly strengthening Russia-North Korea ties.
The visit of Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu to North Korea in July 2023 marked the start of North Korea’s weapon supply to Russia, and a Russia-North Korea summit in September led to an agreement on comprehensive relationship development. During this summit, President Putin openly promised to support North Korea’s reconnaissance satellite launch. Following the summit, North Korea’s Minister of External Economic Affairs visited Moscow in late September, and Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Pyongyang in October.
The military cooperation between Russia and North Korea is also accelerating. Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of Russia, stated on December 21, 2023, “We have established active and comprehensive cooperation with North Korea,” indicating close military collaboration between the two countries. On October 13, John F. Kirby, the White House National Security Council (NSC) Coordinator for Strategic Communications, revealed in a briefing that North Korea had provided Russia with over a thousand containers of military equipment and ammunition, showing related photos. On November 2, the South Korean military stated that North Korea might have supplied Russia with portable anti-aircraft missiles and short-range ballistic missiles, estimating about 2,000 containers sent to Russia.
The US-based North Korea-focused website ‘Beyond Parallel’ reported spotting containers at North Korea’s Rason Port: approximately 780 on October 23, 800 on November 12, 1,010 on November 15, 990 on November 20, 550 on November 25, and 490 on November 30.
Shin Won-sik, the Minister of National Defense of the Republic of Korea, mentioned in a press briefing on December 28, 2023, that the containers moved from Rason Port to Russia, initially about 2,000 by the end of October, had increased to about 5,000. This equates to over 400,000 rounds of 122mm rocket artillery and more than 2 million rounds of 152mm howitzer artillery.
More concerning is the quid pro quo for North Korea from Russia. Experts and South Korean and U.S. authorities believe that Russia supported North Korea’s successful third attempt in December 2023 to launch a reconnaissance satellite into orbit. North Korea is showing signs of converting its IL76 cargo planes, owned by Air Koryo, into Airborne Warning And Control Systems (AWACS). Given North Korea’s limited capability to produce AWACS, Russian support is likely. Russia has operated AWACS based on the IL76 platform. There is also speculation about Russia providing second-tier MiG-29 fighter jets to North Korea.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive in 2023 appears to have failed, and one reason for Russia’s successful defense of its occupied territories is believed to be North Korea’s ammunition supply. As U.S. and Western support becomes uncertain, Ukraine faces real issues in the logistics sector, including ammunition, while Russia is intensifying its offensive. Russia cannot overlook North Korea’s strategic importance as a military supply base. With the unclear end to the Russia-Ukraine war in 2024, the possibility of continued military cooperation between Russia and North Korea is significant. The likelihood of President Putin’s visit to North Korea is high, and the ‘dangerous bromance’ between Russia and North Korea will be a threat to security in both Europe and Northeast Asia in 2024.
Opening diplomatic channels is essential to effectively counter North Korea’s new Cold War strategy and to enhance dialogue with Russia. Leveraging the situation in Ukraine as a strategic tool is crucial to prevent the military collaboration between Russia and North Korea from exceeding acceptable limits. This approach is vital since, although North Korean ammunition might support Russia’s war efforts, supplying South Korea’s advanced weapons to Ukraine has the potential to notably alter the dynamics of the conflict. It’s important to acknowledge that the end of the Ukraine conflict could lead to a decrease in North Korea’s strategic importance. President Vladimir Putin is advancing a new Eastern policy aimed at developing Siberia and the Far East as a major national growth strategy.
Within this new Eastern policy framework, South Korea is a crucial collabo-rator, whereas North Korea is relegated to a mere transit role. Capitalizing on the differing strategic interests between Russia and North Korea is key to thwarting North Korea’s new Cold War strategy.