Zmicier MICKIEVIČ^

After August 2020 Belarus got on the European political agenda in the result of mass protests after the presidential election (which was falsified in order to continue the already 29-year rule of Aliaksandr Lukashenka). The protests can be characterised as a peaceful manifestation of the people’s will, which was brutally suppressed by the Lukashenka regime forces – only according to open sources there are more than 1,500 political prisoners, 24 people were killed, more than 30,000 people were repressed. The repressions still continue. This led to the largest migration flow out of Belarus – according to different estimates up to half million people left Belarus.

Here it is essential to note, that in 2020, Lukashenka got the full support of the Kremlin during the protests all over the country, once involving around a million people (more than 10% of the population of Belarus). It was officially announced that Rosgvardiya troops (Russian national guard) were deployed near the border with Belarus ready to enter the territory of Belarus in case the Lukashenka regime is under threat. This was a crucial moment to ensure the loyalty of the military and law enforcement agencies to the regime. So, Lukashenka was in a powerful position and took the most hardcore action possible – the protests were dissolved, the bloody reaction had started and is still continuing – according to the statistics of 2023, at least 16 people are arrested or imprisoned for political reasons in Belarus EVERY DAY. The independent media as well as all civil society organisations are declared “extremist formations”: for any association with them one can get imprisoned for at least 3 years. For example, even the organisation called “The protection of the birds of the Motherland”, dealing with the issues of birds and nature, has been prohibited and dissolved. People are being imprisoned for the subscriptions, comments and likes on social networks. The political police, dealing with all that, has become the most important structure within the regime.

February 24, 2022 brought Belarus on the political agenda of the world once again. It was Belarusian territory that became the base for the Russian offence on Kyiv and the northern part of Ukraine. The attack on the Ukrainian capital was possible only with the use of Belarusian territory. Which, of course, gave birth to the rhetoric that “if in 2020 the West would have supported Belarusian people in their fight with the regime, in February 2022 Russian tanks wouldn’t have approached Kyiv”. The massacre organised by the Russian soldiers in the satellite cities of Kyiv – Bucha and Borodyanka – made this statement even more actual: this tragedy is the direct result of the action of the Lukashenka regime, which is the closest ally of the Kremlin. This is the best illustration possible of the approach to Belarus from the different geopolitical actors. While the West was reluctant to take any hard action for the promotion of democratic changes in Belarus in order to guarantee the security in the region, Russia declared full support to the Lukashenka regime and used the territory of Belarus to fulfill its geopolitical goals.

So, taking into consideration the above mentioned facts and the geographic situation of Belarus, we can speak about two options for the perspectives of this country as a part of the security architecture of Europe in the mid-term. The first one is being implemented right now: Belarus is the strategic balcony of Russian aggression against Ukraine and the West. Being under hybrid occupation of the Kremlin this only formally independent country has become the polygone for the experiments and preparation of attacks on the enemies of Russia. The second option is inclusion of Belarus in the regional system of security in Eastern Europe together with Ukraine and Moldova. This will require the democratic change in the country and the strong support of the West in order to maintain sovereignty and diminish Russian influence. Let’s take a closer look at each of these options, conditions for its fulfillment and its possible outcomes for Europe in the security dimension.

A RUSSIAN DOMAIN…

One can already see the results of this scenario, though it is already the beginning of Russian plans for usage of Belarusian territory. The main task of the Kremlin here is to execute pressure and pose a constant threat to all neighbouring states. The possibility of once again launching an attack on the Kyiv from the north is making the Ukrainian command stay prepared for such a scenario and keep in mind the ability of the troops’ being quickly redeployed to this direction.

At the same time, Russia isn’t likely to go for the formal annexation of Belarus, as it brings the Kremlin additional problems both in the inner politics and international level. First of all, it is an additional burden for the Russian budget, as Belarus doesn’t possess any significant resources and has only a few objects of interest for Russia’s top bureaucracy and court oligarchy. Secondly, such a step will require a formal reorganisation of the whole power vertical inside Belarus, which will bring instability inside the country. This will also definitely be not appreciated by the local population, which can result in mass riots, sabotage or even open resistance – Putin can’t afford such an image loss and instability outbreak in the region. That’s why he is in favour of “armenisation” of Belarus – the situation, when the Kremlin controls all essential spheres in the country (national security, defence, foreign policy, economy), but isn’t paying for anything of that directly and isn’t responsible for its actions on this territory according to the local laws.

At the same time, Belarus is used by the Kremlin for avoiding sanctions imposed by the West. At the moment, the size and the nature of the sanctions against the Lukashenka regime and Russia are different, which allows the dictator in Minsk to use his privileged (in comparison to official Moscow) status very actively. For example, several companies, personally controlled by the Lukashenka family, are able to work in the EU almost without interruptions. They just formally changed the owners after the introduction of sanctions against the top officials and oligarchs of the Lukashenka regime, which allows them to continue their operation on the EU market. It opens possibilities for the Russian authorities as well. However, at the moment the issue of unification of the sanction regimes against the Lukashenka regime and Russia is being discussed in the EU. But it is also the issue of controlling these sanctions’ execution, which is also problematic for the EU, as there is no special mechanism or institution for that at the moment.

Therefore, Russia is trying to present Lukashenka to the international com-munity as an independent leader, who is completely responsible for everything happening in Belarus – both in the internal and foreign policy. This can also be a tactic of shifting responsibility for the actions of the Kremlin in Belarus to the dictator in Minsk. That’s how hybrid operations of Moscow against the West already work. For example, the migration crisis on the borders of Belarus with Poland and Lithuania, which started in summer 2021 (reached its peak in autumn 2021), had been planned and organised by Russian security services in close cooperation with the services of the Lukashenka regime. But mainly in the Western media as well as in the statements of many politicians, it’s the official Minsk who’s responsible for this crisis.

Russia has also deployed nuclear weapons in Belarus. There are both air and land means to carry and launch this weapons deployed on the territory of Belarus: Iskander missile systems as well as Su-25 aircraft specially modernised for that purpose. Both these weapons are in service with the Belarusian military. So, technically, if the nuclear attack happens from the territory of Belarus, it can be claimed that it was performed by the Belarusian military. However, Putin officially stated that he stays in control of the nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus.

Here it is necessary to underline that Russia is continuing using Belarus as a base for threatening the West and Ukraine. In case the situation in the region in whole and in Belarus in particular isn’t changing, the level of Russian threats will only rise. Russian propaganda states that it is important to carry out provocations against the EU member states in order to destabilise the situation inside of them as well as to see, which reaction is caused by a particular Russian action. For example, according to the Kremlin, even using nuclear weapons from the territory of Belarus can result in the West targeting objects in Belarus, not in deep Russia, which is more important for Moscow.

At the moment, the enterprises of the military industrial complex of Belarus are actively used by Russia in order to fulfil Russian “state military order” for waging the war against Ukraine. Russia also plans to use more entities of Belarusian industry to produce military equipment. This can lead to the situation, when industry in Belarus will be something like one during the USSR times – working for the system of a big state with a large role of military component. There is also a perspective of acquisition of the most profitable enterprises of Belarusian industrial complex, possessing unique technologies and boasting of a high working culture like Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant, KB “Radar”, Precision Electromechanics Plant, Peleng, etc. All that will be essential for Russia’s gaining more military potential to pose a threat to Europe. Now it is quite obvious that in case Russia is able to gain any significant victory in the war against Ukraine, it won’t stop and will continue using the military as their only tool of diplomacy. Then one can easily see the will of the Kremlin to restore its status of the “world power” and get control of at least the whole Eastern Europe.

One should note that Lukashenka has no instruments to diminish Russia’s influence on him as well as to refuse to perform Putin’s orders. So, this situation in whole can be described as “hybrid occupation” of Belarus – formally it is an inde-pendent state, but all key spheres are controlled by Russia, which is accompanied with Lukashenka’s personal hatred to Belarusian national culture in all its manifest-tations: language, symbols, traditions, etc. So, these spheres have been destroyed by the Lukashenka regime since 1994, which also undermines the possibilities for Belarus to resist Russian influence.

…OR A BORDER FORTRESS OF EUROPE?

This is the positive scenario, which is being discussed within several political circles in the West. Simply speaking, its main goal is to prevent the negative scenario described above from happening. Vice versa, it increases the role of independent Belarus to deter Russia in the region.

First of all, here we speak about the need to decrease the Russian presence and influence in Belarus. This is possible only in case of effective pressure on the regimes in Minsk and Moscow with the goal to defeat Russia in Ukraine, which will make its positions in Belarus weaker as well. The Lukashenka regime is fully dependent on the Kremlin – without its support it can’t last long for both economic and political reasons. That’s why it is important to weaken Russia in order to create a situation favourable for democratic changes in Belarus.

It is necessary to note that Belarusian democratic forces at the annual con-ference “New Belarus”, held on August 6, 2023 in Warsaw, officially declared their Euro-atlantic aspirations, firstly speaking about their will to integrate in the EU. It is essential to understand that this approach is supported by most of the supporters of democratic changes in the country. The start of the full-scale war of Russia against Ukraine with the use of Belarusian territory made more people think positively of the European integration of Belarus – at the moment it is understood as an essential part of ensuring Belarusian sovereignty and stable development.

Speaking about the security dimension one should also mention the geographic factor. Having Belarus as an independent state, integrated in the EU and security system of Europe, the border to protect will significantly decrease. At the moment, the borders of the EU states and Ukraine with Belarus are 2,334 km. So, in the current situation this is the border to be protected against hybrid and direct Russian aggression. If Belarus is in the EU and included in its security area, then the border to protect against possible Russian threat is decreased to 1,283 km. Quite a significant decrease. In such a situation Russia just physically won’t be able to project large aggression against many states in Eastern Europe (only having Kaliningrad oblast left as its bastion).

At the same time, integration of Belarus in the security system of Eastern Europe will also make it much easier to build a successful defence industry cluster in the region. Having a good engineering school in spheres of automobiles, wheel chassis, radar and optics construction, inherited from the USSR, Belarusian military industry can successfully cooperate with the enterprises of Ukraine and Poland in order to develop modern weapon systems that will be competitive on the world market. Previously, there were successful joint projects of Belarusian and Ukrainian defence industries in creating “Shershen” and “Skif” ATGM as well as “Stilet” short-range SAM. In these projects the guiding and launching system (as well as the chassis for the SAM) was Belarusian and the missile – made in Ukraine.

The development of cooperation of this kind can also play a big role in the industrial development of Belarus in whole: the transformation of the industry system from the communist standards to the modern and capitalistic one won’t be painful, as it will advocate more for modernisation, not the liquidation of many big enterprises. This will be positively appreciated by the society and result into its more strong commitment to the idea of European integration (here one has to note that Lukashenka regime propaganda actively promotes the stereotype, that entering the EU will bring to an end all industrial development of Belarus, the factories will be closed, the unemployment will become enormous and poor former workers will be begging for money in the streets). It is also important to say that this kind of regional cooperation in the security sphere will result in more intensive development and cooperation in science as investment in research and development is crucial for sustainability of the military industrial complex.

Such scenario will also require a transformation of the Belarusian army and law enforcement agencies according to NATO standards. At the moment, these structures look like their soviet predecessors in the late 80s: the same structure, equipment, tasks, command and, what is more important, style of organisation and thinking. This system should be made 100% transparent and controlled by the civil society, which will contribute to the drastic increase of its quality in all spheres of activities. The reforms necessary can’t be described in a single text, but they should be implemented in all spheres: from the conscription system to cooperation of the army with the military industrial complex of the state. This transition will require assistance from the EU, especially neighbouring states, having already experienced this kind of transformation. But in order to create the military, law enforcement agencies and special services able to deter Russian threat, these steps will be essential.

Of course, this scenario requires much effort from the EU and USA in order to help Belarusian people in their democratic and Euro-atlantic aspirations. At the moment it means confrontation with Russia to push it out from Belarus. But without these steps the negative scenario will be implemented. Ironically, it also means confrontation with Russia. But in this case Russia will be much more powerful and have more possibilities to threaten the EU in direct and hybrid ways.

At the moment we see some positive signs in this situation. There are more statements from the Western politicians that the EU and US have to intervene in the situation in Eastern Europe in order not to let Russia gain critical strength here. In early December 2023 the strategic dialogue “USA – Belarus” on the level of the US government and Belarusian democratic forces was declared. This will be a good sign if it will continue and result in real plans of tearing Belarus apart from the Russian sphere of influence in order to ensure security in Eastern Europe.