Nicolae ILIE, PhD

Abstract. The paper reviews a concern regarding climate change and its effects on human society and what we can do to mitigate the impacts of severe weather. There was found that nearly one billion people around the world live in poverty, with less than 1.25$ per day. The most vulnerable countries regarding climate change are those from arid and semi-arid areas of the Earth. The haste of adaptation to climate change increases when specific failed mitigation policies and instruments are seen. Reviews of regional effects linked by climate change include the perceptions and motivations of supposed losers or winners. New security policy implications related to climate change are emerging in the Arctic, South-East Asia, Africa, and the Pacific. In Romania, to mitigate the effects of climate change, currently within S.C. Intervenţii Active în Atmosfera S.A., anti-hail rockets are used. Using this technique, significant mitigation for hail occurrence and an increase in rain was noticed. The rain increase ratio by using this technique was up to 10 or even 15%. In the future, within S.C. Interventii Active în Atmosfera S.A. other seeding clouds techniques are intended to be used, like aircraft, ground-based generators, and unmanned light helium balloons. The experimental programs conducted in the last period concluded that an increase in precipitations was noticed using any technique mentioned. For higher accuracy, these experimental programs were performed across the entire of Romania to see how these technologies work in relation to namely local features of the topography.

Keywords: climate change, food security, hygroscopic, ground-based generators, aircraft, anti-hail rockets

INTRODUCTION

Climate change represents long-term changes in weather patterns worldwide, from the Equator to the poles. It is a global threat that has put stress on various sectors (Kashif et al., 2022), with the agricultural sector’s vulnerability being a globally concerning scenario as sufficient food production and supplies are threatened due to irreversible weather fluctuations. The world has recognized and anticipated climatic changes for the twenty-first century, with global warming leading to changes on a global scale that are comparable to those experienced in the last 65 years or are unprecedented in that time. Climate change represents a complex global challenge with its influence over various components of ecological, environmental, socio-political, and socio-economic disciplines (Adger et al. 2005; Leal Filho et al. 2021; Feliciano et al. 2022). The problem of the earth’s climate has been amplified in various ways since the industrial revolution (Leppänen et al. 2014). Before the industrial revolution, significant climate change sources were natural, such as volcanoes, forest fires, and seismic activities, which were regarded as distinct sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as CO2, CH4, N2O, and H2O into the atmosphere (Murshed et al. 2020; Hussain et al. 2020; Sovacool et al. 2021; Usman and Balsalobre-Lorente 2022; Murshed 2022). Scientific climate change is characterized based on comprehensive long-term temperature and precipitation records and trends, as well as other compo–nents such as air-mass pressure and humidity levels in the surrounding environment. Besides, the irregular weather patterns, like the retreating of global ice sheets and the corresponding elevated sea level rise, are among the most renowned international and domestic effects of climate change (Lipczynska-Kochany 2018; Michel et al. 2021; Murshed and Dao 2020).

THE CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD INSECURITY

  Figure 1. Schematic representation of the cascading effects of climate change impacts on food security and nutrition

Source: https://www.fao.org/3/i5188e/I5188E.pdf

Climate change has a critical impact on food, as recognized by the United Nations, which reported that in 2015, 836 million people worldwide were living in extreme poverty, defined as earning less than USD 1.25 per day¹. According to a study by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), at least 70% of impoverished people live in rural areas and depend partly or entirely on agriculture for their livelihoods. It is estimated that around 500 million smallholder farms in the developing world support nearly 2 billion people, and about 80% of the food consumed by those 2 billion people is produced in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Unfortunately, the progress made in fighting hunger and malnutrition is being threatened by climate change. The latest assessment report from the Intergovern-mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that climate change is expected to increase and intensify risks to food security for vulnerable countries and populations². According to the IPCC AR5, four of the eight crucial risks caused by climate change include direct effects on food safety, such as loss of rural livelihoods and earnings, loss of marine and coastal ecosystems and livelihoods, loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems and livelihoods, and food insecurity and breakdown of food systems. The most vulnerable countries and populations, such as those in arid and semi-arid areas, landlocked countries, and small island developing states, will be the most impacted. Climate change will also have broader impacts on trade flows, food markets, and price stability, and could pose new risks to human health. Therefore, it is crucial to take immediate and greatly expanded efforts to respond to climate change in order to safeguard the capacity of food systems and ensure global food security. Figure 1 provides a visual representation of the concepts discussed in the previous paragraphs.

GEOPOLITICS: PLAYERS AND THEIR MOTIVATIONS

The current approach displays only the positions of a few essential govern-mental players, including the EU, USA, Russia, China, and India. However, important developed countries such as Australia, Canada, and Japan, as well as many developing countries ranging from the least developed to powerful emerging economies like Brazil, Indonesia, and Nigeria, have not been shown separately. To provide a complete treatment, it would be necessary to consider more states and other actors such as multinational industries, intergovernmental organizations, and non-governmental advocacy organizations.

The European Union

The EU climate change policy, with its 20-20-20 targets, is one of the most ambitious worldwide. EU heads agreed, back in 2007, on climate and energy targets to be met by 2020:

• A drop, across all the EU countries, in GHG (Green House Gases) emissions of more than 20% below 1990 levels.

• 20% of energy consumption comes from renewable sources.

• A reduction of 20% in primary energy use compared with projected levels by improving energy efficiency.

These resulted in a binding legislation called the ‘climate and energy package’ in 2009. The package includes several key elements, such as the ‘Emissions Trading System’ (ETS) as a vital tool to cost-effectively reduce emissions by up to 21% below the 2005 level by 2020. The ‘Effort Sharing Decision’ stipulates that emissions from sectors not covered by the ETS, such as transport, housing, agriculture, and waste, should be reduced by 10% from 2005 to 2020. The package also sets national targets for renewable energy, which aim to double the share of renewable from 9.6% in 2006 to 20% in 2020 on average. Finally, the package includes a legal framework to promote the development and safe use of carbon capture and storage (CCS). ETS covers 40% of its GHG emissions. Meanwhile, it is a ‘work in progress’ – as airline companies should have joined the scheme by 2012. An extension to other industries, like petrochemicals, ammonia, and aluminium, should have been followed until 2013. ETS showed that trading in GHG emissions is possible, but selling the concept has been less successful: a hoped-for OECD-wide carbon market is still far away. The internal weaknesses include over-allocation, carbon price volatility, and carbon leakage. ETS has been an open door for crimes: Europol estimated 90% of the market volume of emissions trading in some countries could result from tax fraud, costing governance more than 5 billion €. Most significantly, EU ETS is globally nonessential: it covers about 2 Gt emissions, i.e., less than 5% of the overall global GHG emissions: reducing them by 20% means a global emissions reduction of 1% only!

Most European politicians agree that achieving emission cuts of 80-95% below 1990 levels by 2050 requires decarbonizing the economy. However, they deeply split on the roles of nuclear energy and ‘clean coal’.

Given its importance to historical responsibility and development aid, the EU could serve as a bridge between developed and developing countries. The EU could exercise leadership by pursuing global-level pricing of carbon. One route would be to follow scaled-up post-2012 mechanisms that allows establishing a global carbon price; another way would be to impose an import tax on the content of CO₂ of all goods imported into the EU from countries that do not have their cap-and-trade system or equivalent measures (Branko, 2013). A critical effect of such a tariff is that it would always lower global emissions (Gros, D. and Egenhofer, C., 2010). However, such a tariff will face fierce resistance from countries whose economies depend on gas and oil exports, like Russia, and goods, like China and India.

USA

It is evident in Durban that the US intermediaries, envoys of a Democratic President (Barack Obama in 2009), showed little enthusiasm for almost any part of the international process. And a Republican President would most likely block inter-national climate negotiations. Most EU citizens consider climate change a serious problem and call for more action against global warming. In contrast, international polls reveal that more than one-third of Americans say climate change is not an issue. Only a minor percentage think it is the consequence of human activity. US society is addicted to auto-motive mobility and oil consumption, not the least because of the spatial distribution of human settlements. Oil and gas production subsidies have been estimated to be between 15 and 35 billion dollars per year. The ongoing revolution in production technologies for unconventional gas from shale has led to a decrease in gas prices and has decoupled them from rising oil prices (Gros et al., 2010). As a result, many coal-fired power plants in the United States (still 48% of total) have been replaced by gas-fired plants (now 18% of total). The role of nuclear power plants (currently 20%) will likely diminish. Despite the current reliance on automotive mobility and oil, and the strategic and military engagements related to it worldwide, the potential for future innovation in the US should not be under-estimated. While climate-friendly innovation may not be sufficiently driven at the federal level, bottom-up initiatives at the private, city, and state levels, notably California, have displayed an impressive pace (Kten Kate, W., 2008). Some analysts predict that the US and China will soon dominate the hotly disputed solar energy market. For instance, Solar World Industries America Inc and six other solar manufacturers have filed cases with the US Department of Commerce and International Trade Commission, accusing Chinese solar cell and module manufacturers of illegal dumping in the US market (World Bank, 2010, p. 215).

Russia

Regarding Russia, it has various reasons to believe it will be a geopolitical winner of climate change. Russia had no problems complying with Kyoto Protocol due to the baseline year 1990, which was followed by a collapse of its obsolete industry. Moreover, Russia expects climate change to increase agricultural yields and expand its ability to enhance and modernize rural food production and exports. Climate warming may also considerably increase its ability to explore and exploit fossil energy resources in Siberia and the Arctic Ocean. Russia, already heavily dependent on its oil and gas exports, has not hesitated to use these resources simultaneously as a strategic weapon in power play with its neighbors as long as there was a gas shortage in the world’s demands. At the same time, Russia increasingly thinks of itself as also an Asian nation (Hyun, 2014).

China

In its high-pace rise as a world economic superpower, China is working toward making a major geo-economic transformation that will help it secure a supply of various strategic essentials, including energy, food, and diverse industrial raw materials. Sustained economic growth of around or more than 10% over decades has been one of the causes of China´s growing contribution to world emissions of GHG. China’s elite relies heavily on fast GDP growth based on energy-intensive industries to retain power. Several counteracting factors may slow this trend (Helm – 2009, p. 32-33). First, much lower growth could be caused by a reserved world demand or erosion of China’s competitive advantages, such as cheap land and a cheaper workforce. A second opportunity is that an oil-price shock may disproportionately affect an energy-intensive China. China’s strategic choices in responding to higher oil prices include a scramble for resources notably in Africa and Central Asia, and further exploitation of coal reserves. A third possibility is a political implosion as part of a revolt against the communist party oligarchy and strict state control. This scenario remains unlikely as long as the attraction of high consumption keeps the wider population calm.

However, one crucial risk remains: environmental degradation – not only through future climate change but acutely due to water pollution and scarcity – may lead to a collapse of economic growth, massive health hazards, and ensuing widespread unrest. Indeed, a report by UNDP (UNDP China National Human Development Report 2009/10) concluded that if the negative impacts of climate change and environmental degradation are not adequately addressed in China, there is a danger that three decades of social and economic achievements may be reversed³.

Can the climate-change policies facilitate a benign decarbonization of the Chinese, Indian, and other rapidly developing economies over the next two decades? The central challenge of future negotiations is to achieve a significant and rapid reduction in emissions against a sharply rising trend. China has been praised for adopting a green growth strategy. Renewables already constituted 9% of the total primary energy mix in 2009, and there was planned to reach up to 15% by 2020. China just increased its 2015 target for solar power by 50%. China’s CO₂ intensity (CO₂ emission per unit GDP) is being reduced annually by an impressive 3% (Flückiger and Schwab 2010, p.113), but this should be seen in the perspective of its even more considerable average 8% to 10% annual growth of GDP during the last 30 years. This aspect means that unless there is a significant slowing down of economic growth, there remains a yearly growth of CO₂ emissions of 5%-7%, an awe-inspiring number. Coal burning mainly causes these massive emissions: China produces 43% of global coal consumption, most of it for domestic use.

Emerging countries:
who is responsible for paying mitigation and adaptation?

Lack of trust between emerging and developed countries in international climate change negotiations used to be common knowledge. The unequal distribution of past and present emissions between emerging and developed countries has been at the core of the controversy. But despite the still low energy consumption and emissions per capita, developing countries will dominate much of the future growth in total energy consumption and CO₂ emissions (World Bank 2010, p. 194).

The concept of the contradiction between developed and emerging countries under the Kyoto Protocol has become ideological, divisive, anachronistic, and unproductive, given that the so-called developing countries which were given a free pass, including South Korea and Saudi Arabia, as well as China and India, are now responsible for 58% of global emissions. Moreover, rapidly developing economies like China, oil-rich Gulf monarchies, or the poorest African countries are in different leagues and occasionally share identical interests. BRIC countries are merged in their wish to end the economic dominance of the West. At the same time, they are divided by political visions and rivalries, such as that between India and China (van Staden, 2011). Their strong support for the EU’s suggestions made it much harder for the Indians and Chinese to decry them as a developed-world plot against the poor and helpless.

THE ROLE OF ACTIVE INTERVENTION INTO THE ATMOSPHERE
WITHIN CLIMATE CHANGE

As discussed earlier, the rising global average temperature is associated with widespread changes in weather patterns. Scientific analysis shows that extreme weather events like heat waves and large storms will likely become more frequent or intense with human-induced climate change⁴.

This chapter focuses on two of the most important severe weather phenomena in Romania: severe storms with large hail and droughts, as well as how active interventions in the atmosphere can mitigate or even eliminate these risks.

First, a brief aspect regarding hail’s impact on human society: this phenomenon causes billions of dollars in damage to crops and property worldwide each year. Damage from hailstorms can exceed USD 1 billion, as shown by individual cases from Europe (Höller and Reinhardt 1986; Kunz et al. 2018), the United States (Changnon et al. 2003; Brown et al. 2015), and Australia (Yeo et al. 1999; Schuster et al. 2005). While small hail (i.e., less than 2 cm in diameter) can harshly affect agriculture (Changnon et al. 2009), it seldom causes property damage. To handle the risk hail poses to property, it’s necessary to examine precisely the occurrence of larger hail. Unfortunately, temporally and spatially homogeneous records of large hail over Europe are lacking. Most climatological analyses of hail occurrence in Europe do not focus on large hail. Instead, they refer mainly to hail larger than 2 cm, with the exceptions of Dessens (1986) for France, Burcea et al. (2016) for Romania, Tuovinen et al. (2009) for Finland, and Kahraman et al. (2016) for Turkey. This is because European weather stations generally do not record hail dimensions, unlike in China, where hail dimensions are observed at all stations (Li et al. 2018). Hail pad station networks, often installed in hail-prone sites such as northern Spain, southern France, or northern Italy, have enabled analysis of the range of observed hail sizes (Fraile et al. 1992; Fraile et al. 2003; Sánchez et al. 2009; Palencia et al. 2010), but they frequently miss the largest hailstones due to the gaps that exist between the hail pads (Changnon 1977; Smith and Waldvogel 1989).

In Romania, any action regarding active atmospheric interventions works by Act No. 173/2008. By this law, all the active interventions into the atmosphere are a set of weather modifications through specific means. All those actions are in the national interest and take place under the present law, following the World Meteo-rological Organization recommendations and international conventions on this field in which Romania takes part. The activities are complex, having a researching character and extreme weather phenomena disasters protecting role.

The present law considers hail suppression, local or widespread rain aug-mentation, fog dissipation, extreme weather phenomena mitigation, and other weather modification activities⁵.

Hail suppression techniques
applied by S.C. Interventii Active in Atmosfera S.A. – rockets technology

Let’s now observe a case study regarding hail suppression within the Hail Suppression Unit Moldova 1 – Iasi (Romania) in 2017 and 2018.

During the warm season of 2017 in Moldova, the most characteristic cases of convective cells were linked with westerly air-mass movements, accounting for 47.1%, followed by those from the northwest at 13.4% (fig. 2). These directions generated the most violent storms while the cold air from maritime-polar origins replaced the warm pre-existent air-mass. Due to global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather phenomena have increased in Moldova as well (IPCC, 2014; Kovats et al., 2014).

 Figure 2. Weigh of the convective cells’ movement across Moldova.
The convective period of 2017 (Axinte, 2019)

Besides the dynamic factor in convection materialization, the topography feature plays a significant role in generating convections over northern and central Moldova. The slightly arched shape of the Wooded Carpathian (Ukraine) and the Eastern Carpathian (Romania) gives some particularities to the atmospheric dynamics at the regional scale. As a result, the maritime-polar air mass from oceanic origins is blended into a northwesterly to southwesterly movement. These situations occur because of the ‘Coanda effect,’ which takes place at the local level (Bordei-Ion N., 1988).

The air mass replaced in this direction tends to gain higher speeds, leading to a sudden change in thermodynamics’ characteristics in the lower and medium troposphere. This context is most favorable for the evolution of severe storms on the northwesterly air-mass movements (13.4%).

THE HAIL SIZE ESTIMATED BY THE RADAR FOR THE STORMS THAT OCCURRED IN MOLDOVA. (Axinte, 2019)
Figure 3.	Figure 4.
The convective period of 2017	The convective period of 2018

Southerly air-masses movements (10.8%) and these from southwesterly (4.3%) take place in warm and moist air-mass movements in the cyclonic pattern (Ilie et al., 2016). In this scenario we can see that type of convective linear multi-cell clouds. According to local characteristics, cells stimulating the Carpathian Mountains range can cause severe weather events.

Low values, ranging from 5% to 10%, can be associated with easterly air-mass movements, including all their subdivisions, and are often related to retrogressive cyclones (Apostol, 2008). As these air masses move eastward, they meet high-pressure areas over Eastern Europe. Moreover, the warm waters of the western and north-western parts of the Black Sea contribute to a surplus of moisture that helps regenerate these depressions.

When studying and suppressing hail falls, it is critical to know where hail is most likely to form in the convective cell (Cumulonimbus), i.e., where the highest dimensions of hail are expected. To determine this, a section is needed to figure out where the cloud shows the highest reflectivity on RADAR.

Based on the archive associated with active interventions into the atmosphere during the 2017 year, there were alternating regions where hail size in the maximal reflective areas was huge (exceeding 3.71 cm or 1.46 in) with others where these values were shallow (under 1.27 cm or 0.5 in).

Therefore, the 2017 year was representative of convective cells that predo-minantly formed upon westerly and northwesterly movements with warm and moist air-mass replacements. In these convective clouds, hail of impressive dimensions, over 6 cm (2.36 in) in diameter, was formed. All of these situations were associated with northwestern movement, followed by a quick pass toward an anticyclonic regime (Ilie et al., 2016). Such tracks were characteristic of Moldova, Bistrita, and Jijia rivers. Also, on the Jijia River, the dimension of the hail was over 7.5 cm (2.95 in), mainly in Botoşani County (fig. 3)

In contrast to the previous year, 2018 experienced a high rate of cloudiness, which resulted from the clouds being regenerated from the Black Sea. Despite this, the size of hail was smaller compared to the previous year. In situations where low-pressure areas are associated with a retrogressive trend (Apostol, 2008), the largest size of hail tends to be concentrated mainly in the eastern and southeastern parts of the studied area (see fig. 4). When north-westerly or westerly air-mass convection occurs, severe weather conditions are often present. In such cases, the precipitations of southeasterly or easterly air-mass movements are more contiguous, with a more uniform spread (Bordei-Ion E., 1983). As a result, all the precipitations associated with retrogressive cyclones are crucial for the annual trend of the pluvial regime. Such synoptic situations diminish long periods of drought.

In 2017, hail size averaged between 1.27 to 1.91 cm (0.5 to 0.75 in) with over 50% frequency. In 2018, however, hail size under 1.27 cm (0.5 in) in diameter prevailed. These dimensions, followed by those of 1.27 (0.5 in) and 1.54 cm (0.61 in) – with a combined frequency of approximately 70% (see fig. 4).

Two significant cases were taken into account when the hailstorms represented an immediate risk for Cotnari protected area (fig. 5). Also, for the Huşi protected area. Both of them are within the Hail Suppression Unit ‘Moldova 1’ Iasi.

 Figure 5. The convective cells evolution influenced into the protected area of Hail Suppression Unit ‘Moldova 1’ Iasi on June, 23rd, 2017 (Axinte, 2019)

 Figure 6. The convective cells evolution influenced into the protected area of Hail Suppression Unit ‘Moldova 1’ Iasi on June, 28th, 2018 (Axinte, 2019)

For Cotnari protected area, the most threatening situations are linked with westerly and northwesterly air-masses movements. These air flows can generate the most damaging storms, including hail. Thus, the day of June 23^rd, 2017, was charac-terized by a violent warm air-mass replacement with another cold by maritime-polar origins (mP).

In this context, there is a link between high atmospheric moisture, vegetation showing its maximum growth phase, and a long period of rain, which increases the instability rate to its maximum level. This situation is favorable for developing large hailstones within the high reflectivity of convective clouds (Cumulonimbus), where the diameter of the hailstones can reach up to 10 cm (3.94 in) or more. Such large hailstones were recorded at the west side of the protected area, around 20-25 km (12.43 to 15.53 mi) away (as shown in fig. 5). Within the protected area, the convective cell X1 produced hailstones with dimensions over 5 cm (1.97 in). After seeding the hailstorm, a decrease in the size of the hail can be observed. The slight variations that show an increase in size are due to the active influence against the convective cell being stopped. These periods were the result of restrictions on launching imposed by ROMATSA and during SMURD helicopter rescue missions. The restrictions lasted for 1 to 3 minutes. The subsequent cells that passed the Cotnari Protected Area, namely Q5 and E2, showed a noticeable trend of decreasing hail size, once the convective clouds had been influenced.

Another instance in which convective cells (Cumulonimbus) were influenced occurred on June 28th, 2018, in the Huşi Protected Area (Vaslui County). Here, interest is shown not only by westerly and northwesterly air-mass movements but also by movements from the east and southeast. That day, such atmospheric circulations were the primary vector of the convective cells.

In contrast to the previous situation, the hailstones were smaller in size (as shown in fig. 8) because there was no significant cold air movement involving a maritime polar air mass to replace the warm and moist air mass quickly. This time can be noticed for a long period with launching interdictions (fig. 6) when cell L6 has crossed the Protected Area of Huşi. During all of that time, the hail’s dimension continued to increase.

Once lifted, the launching interdiction and the influences against the cell have decreased the hail’s sizes. Also, the role of these active interventions in the atom-sphere is justified through the hail dimensions’ evolution over the next cells, L8 and V8, respectively. These situations represent the most favorable periods for hail occurrence, which is most frequent during noon and afternoon hours. Favorable circumstances are also often met in the evening hours.

Clouds seeding for precipitations enhancement

Cloud seeding technology is the most widely used method for weather modi-fication. In addition to cloud seeding, other terms used for this process include man-made precipitation enhancement and artificial weather modification. Cloud seeding involves spraying small particles, such as silver iodide, into clouds to increase the amount of precipitation. This method has been used in various drought-prone countries, including the United States, China, India, Australia, South Africa, the UAE, and Russia. Rainmaking or precipitation enhancement began in 1946 when American Vincent Schaefer and Bernard Vonnegut successfully seeded a cloud with dry ice at General Electric and then watched the snow fall from its base. Until recently, it was thought that rain could be induced by explosions, updrafts from fires, or by negatively charging the atmosphere. Generally, three methods have been developed:

1. Spreading water into warm clouds.

2. Seeding dry ice into cold clouds (where the dry ice freezes some water into ice crystals that act as natural nuclei for snow).

3. Wafting silver iodide crystals or similar crystals into a cold cloud from the ground or an airplane over the cloud (UWRL, 1971).

There are essential differences between continental clouds and others formed over the sea. Since larger droplets are needed if rain is to form, this means that con-tinental clouds were much less probable than maritime ones to be a good source of rain. The temperature of the upper levels of the cloud was found to be another critical aspect. In the case of both cumulus and stratiform clouds, provided this temperature is lower than −7°C, seeding would inevitably be followed by precipitation within 20-25 min (Ryan & King, 1997). Openly speaking, some cloud seeding techniques have a moderate success rate. To judge the viability of a rainmaking program, it is essential to establish that the seeding made a difference – that is, it results in rain from clouds that would not otherwise have produced it naturally. Nevertheless, it is difficult to decide whether fluctuations in rainfall that occurred at the time of cloud seeding were produced by seeding or would have occurred naturally. Similarly, the over-seeding can scatter a cloud sometimes. Research performed in China shows that even the best efforts of China’s rainmakers could increase rainfall by only 10%-15% (China Meteorological Bureau, 2004, p. 31).

Due to the thermodynamic aspects of the northern parts of Moldova, including Cotnari, the majority of clouds that generate precipitation move in a northwesterly to southeastern direction. Furthermore, the convective clouds associated with these trajectories, as previously shown, produce the largest hailstones.

The following figure (fig. 7) illustrates the precipitation deviation (2012-2021) compared to the 1991-2020 mean across the protected area of Cotnari. As a result, the Cotnari hail suppression unit has not only proven effective in suppressing hail but has also augmented rainfall in the area. A slightly positive deviation in the amount of precipitation can be observed in Cotnari and its surrounding areas. At the Cotnari weather station, which represents the entire hail group, the precipitation deviation was +22 mm compared to the 1991-2020 mean.⁶

In the case of southern Moldova where the Moldova 2 hail suppression unit is active, the thermodynamic features are linked with the movement of air masses from north to south. This leads to an increase in the amount of precipitation due to the seeding of convective clouds across the Vrancea Sud and Panciu area. As shown in the following figure (fig. 8), there is a noticeable increase in the amount of precipitation in the Vrancea Sud and Panciu area, with positive deviations of up to 40 mm or more compared to the 1991-2020 mean.

The role of the Dragasani hail suppression unit is also essential when it comes to rain enhancement. In this regard, the following material (fig. 9), which shows the precipitation deviation from the 1991-2020 reference period, highlights the importance of active interventions in the atmosphere, such as those performed by the GC Dragasani.

In all areas where such interventions occur, a positive deviation of precipi-tation up to 50 mm compared to the reference period can be noticed. This aspect is closely linked to the path of convective cells, such as towering cumulus and cumulo-nimbus, which should be seeded.

Analyzing the evolution of rain amounts during the warm season since the establishment of the Dragasani hail suppression unit in 2018, an increase in the amount of rain of up to 25% was noticed. This is an encouraging result for cloud seeding techniques that use anti-hail rockets for rain enhancement, in addition to hail suppression.

Rain enhancement by aircrafts

Cloud seeding involves loading a plane with silver iodide or salt when done aerially. Burners are placed on the wings and fuselage.

The pilot reaches a certain altitude where temperatures are ideal and shoots flares into the cloud. The silver iodide causes individual water droplets within the clouds to freeze, forming snowflakes that eventually become so heavy that they fall. Hygroscopic materials are used when the clouds are in a warm phase (temperature above 0°C).

Case study – October 14th, 2022
A weakly developed stratiform cloud approached the far south-western side of Moldova, which was included in an experimental program of cloud seeding by aircraft. The main movement of the cloud was from south to north at a speed of around 10-15 km/h. Since the cloud was in the warm phase, the aircraft released only hygroscopic material. The plane flew constantly at an altitude of 2,400 m, and the environmental temperature was near +2°C.

A more comprehensive understanding of the entire process can be obtained from figure 10, which shows the area, the aircraft’s track, and the thickness of the cloud, all provided by TITAN software and RADAR data from Grivita.

 Figure 10. Cloud seeding by aircraft in southern part of Moldova – October 14th, 2022

Rain enhancement by ground-based generators
Case study – October 3rd, 2022 Vrancea area

In this case, an increase of precipitations amount can be noticed as a result of using the ground-based generators in Vrancea area on October 3^rd, 2022 (fig. 11).

 Figure 11. Cloud seeding by ground-based generators in southern part of Moldova – October 3rd, 2022

On that day, the wind in all layers of the troposphere was blowing from west-north-westerly toward east-south-easterly. Also, the updraft was between 3 to 5 m/s, and by the forecasts made by the training staff within UCCG Moldova 2, Vrancea command center, the optimal areas where the silver iodide would be effective was at 3 to 4 km altitude. The amount of precipitation recorded in the described area above (fig. 11) was between 0.3 to 4 l/sq m. The highest amounts of rain can be easily seen in the northern side of the area, where the silver iodide (AgI) was released from the ground-based generators.

Rain enhancement by using unmanned light helium balloons
Case study – November 17th, 2022 Cotnari area (Northern Moldova)

‘LAICOTM is a complete solution allowing operators to perform reactive, safe and efficient aerial cloud seeding. It gathers a manual or a remotely controlled launcher, and a unique intelligent balloon. With LAICOTM you’ll be able to seed the clouds in less than 10 minutes. In its standard version, each balloon can embark either with 23 g of silver iodide or 220 g of hygroscopic salts.’⁷

  Figure 12A. The precipitations amount in northern part of Moldova – November 17th, 2022

Data provided by Barnova RADAR via ASU-MRL5 software

  Figure 12B. Cloud seeding by using unmanned light helium balloons
in northern part of Moldova November 17th, 2022

Following the map regarding the precipitations amount provided by Barnova RADAR via ASU-MRL5 (fig. 12A), a higher amount of precipitations can be noticed in the balloons’ path that overlaps the eastern air mass movement, the last one computed by the Balloon Trajectory Forecast by GFS weather numerical product. So, the inter-section between air mass movement and seeding area with NaCl is linked with the highest amount of precipitations in the north-north-eastern side of the Cotnari area.

As a result of cloud seeding activities, a significant increase in precipitations amount is noticed near 1 l/sq m when the clouds start to approach the area, and over 5 l/sq after the seeding process.

The estimated values by RADAR are in accordance with those recorded at the ground level, by the rain-gauge network placed in the area (fig. 12B). There can be said without any doubt that the seeding clouds by balloons result in a noticeable increase of precipitations amount.

CONCLUSIONS

Distinct socio-economic, socio-agricultural, and physical systems are essential for psychological well-being, and the disruption of these systems by climate change will have dire consequences. Climate variability and various anthropogenic and natural stressors affect human and environmental health and sustainability, with food security being a major concern. This scenario may result in low or compromised food quality, higher food prices, and ineffective food distribution techniques.

As global power shifts to the East, the geopolitical implications of climate change are becoming increasingly important. They are reflected in the positions of major players such as the US, Russia, China, India, and to some extent, the EU, in dealing with climate change and its associated problems. However, these players are not yet adequately prepared to manage the effects of climate change. In democracies, the electorate is unwilling to pay for mitigation costs, while authoritarian leaders of emerging economies prioritize economic growth to avoid widespread unrest. Climate change is given lower priority than preserving or increasing political and economic dominance.

S.C. Interventii Active in Atmosfera S.A. plays a crucial role in mitigating the effects of severe storms with large hail and droughts in Romania. As a result of active interventions in the atmosphere, significant increases in hail formation have been observed.

So, where such operations were not conducted, the hail size reached enormous values, up to 10-11 cm in diameter inside the convective clouds (Cumulonimbus). In addition to hail suppression, after the clouds were seeded, an increase in rainfall was noticed too. By doing so, the clouds’ rate of precipitation increases with 10 to 15%, scattered even more. These aspects were noticed at the following launching points, such as Cotnari (UCCG Moldova 1 – Iasi), Vrancea Sud, and Panciu (UCCG Moldova 2 – Vrancea), and Dragasani (UCCG Oltenia) taken into consideration in the present survey.

In addition to hail suppression, in the last years, S.C. Interventii Active in Atmosfera S.A. conducted experimental programs of seeding clouds via aircraft. The results of these experimental programs are encouraging, with an increase in the precipitation rate of up to 5-15%. Moreover, this technique can also be used for hail suppression, especially across urban areas where anti-hail rockets usage is strictly forbidden.

In the last year (2022), further seeding cloud techniques were used, via ground-based generators (Vrancea County) and unmanned light helium balloons (Iasi County). After seeding clouds via ground-based generators and unmanned light helium balloons, a significant increase in precipitation was noticed. So, three hours after the ground-based generators had started, the rain-gauge network recorded an average increase in precipitation by 2 to 3 l/sq m. Also, after the unmanned light helium balloons were launched, an increase in the precipitation rate was noticed after 10-30 minutes.

In the future, it is meant that all these technologies (anti-hail rockets, aircraft, ground-based generators, and unmanned light helium balloons) will be used simul-taneously. Using any of them, we can also mitigate the risk of hail and increase the clouds’ precipitation rate. Given its climate features, Romania needs both to mitigate the risk of hail occurrence and increase precipitation. The period for hail suppression is from April to October, with the highest probability of occurrence from May to July. The highest risk for drought, and when the clouds must be seeded to increase the precipitation rate, is in autumn and winter (September to January).

March 9^th, 2023

References

1. Adger, W. N., Arnell, N.W., Tompkins EL. (2005) – Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Glob Environ Chang Nr. 15, Vol. 2, p. 77-86.

2. Apostol L., (2008) – The Mediterranean cyclones – the role in ensuring water resources and their potential of climatic risk, in the east of Romania. Present Environmental and Sustainable Development, Iaşi, Vol. 2.

3. Axinte, A-D. (2019) – The hail falls at the Moldova level and the importance of the hail suppression unit ‘Moldova 1’ Iasi. Present Environmental and Sustainable Development, Iaşi, Nr. 2, Vol. 13, https:// doi.org/10.15551/pesd2019132009

4. Bordei-Ion N. (1988) – Fenomene meteo climatice induse de configuraţia Carpaţilor în Câmpia Română. Ed. Academiei Române, Bucureşti, România.

5. Bordei-Ion, E. (1983) – Rolul lanţului alpino-carpatic în evoluţia ciclonilor mediteraneeni, Edit. Academiei, Bucureşti.

6. Branko, B. (2013) – Environment and Climate Change as Geopolitical Issues in the Asias: What Can Be Learned from the European Experience? Globality Studies Journal. Global History, Society, Civilization. Nr. 35.

7. Brown, T.M., Pogorzelski, W.H., and Giammanco, I.M. (2015) – Evaluating hail damage using property insurance claims data. Wea. Climate Soc., 7, https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0011.1.

8. Burcea, S., Cica, R., and Bojariu, R. (2016) – Hail climatology and trends in Romania: 1961-2014. Mon. Wea. Rev., Nr. 144, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0126.1.

9. Changnon, S.A., (1977) – The scales of hail. J. Appl. Meteor., Nr. 16, https://doi.org/ 10. 1175/1520-0450(1977)016<0626:TSOH>2.0.CO;2.

10. Changnon, S.A., and Burroughs, J. (2003) – The tristate hailstorm: The most costly on record. Mon. Wea. Rev., Nr. 131, https://doi.org/10.1175//2549.1.

11. China Meteorological Bureau. (2004) – China meteorological report (in Chinese). Beijing: China Meteorological Bureau.

12. Dessens, J. (1986) – Hail in southwestern France. Part I: Hailfall characteristics and hailstrom environment. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., Nr. 25, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1986)025< 0035:HISFIH>2.0.CO;2.

13. Feliciano, D., Recha, J., Ambaw, G., MacSween, K., Solomon, D., and Wollenberg, E. (2022) – Assessment of agricultural emissions, climate change mitigation and adaptation practices in Ethiopia. Clim Policy.

14. Flückiger, S., Schwab, M. (2010) – Globalisierung – die zweiteWelle. Was die Schweiz erwartet. Verlag Neue Zürcher Zeitung, Zürich.

15. Fraile, R., Berthet, C., Dessens, J., and Sánchez, J.L. (2003) – Return periods of severe hailfalls computed from hailpad data. Atmos. Res., Nr. 67-68, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(03)00051-6.

16. Fraile, R., Castro, A., and Sanchez, J.L. (1992) – Analysis of hailstone size distributions from a hailpad network. Atmos. Res., Nr. 28, https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-8095(92)90015-3.

17. Gros, D. and Egenhofer, C. (2010) – Climate change and trade: taxing carbon at the border? CEPS Paperback, Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels.

18. Gros, D., Egenhofer, C., Fujiwara, N., and Guerin, S.S (2010) – Climate Change and Trade: Taxing Carbon at the Border? Centre for European policy studies Brussels.

19. Helm, D. (2009) – Climate-change policy: Why has so little been achieved? In: The Economics and Politics of Climate Change (D Helm and C Hepburn, Eds.). Oxford University Press.

20. Höller, H., and Reinhardt, M.E. (1986) – The Munich Hailstorm of July 12, 1984-Convective development and preliminary hailstone analysis. Beitr. Phys. Atmos., Nr. 59.

21. Hussain, M., Butt, A.R., Uzma, F., Ahmed, R., Irshad, S., Rehman, A., and Yousaf, B. (2020) – A comprehensive review of climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation on environmental and natural calamities in Pakistan. Environ. Monit. Assess. Nr. 192, Vol. 1.

22. Hyun, C.L. (2014) – Global Challenges in Asia: New Development Models and Regional Community Building. Seoul National University Press.

23. Ilie N., Apostol L., Olaru L.M. (2016) – Air-synoptical conditions which had an influence on air temperature regime during warm season, in northern Moldova, in the past 20 years (1994-2013). Present Environmental and Sustainable Development, Iaşi, Nr. 1, Vol. 10, Doi: 10.1515/pesd-2016-0016.

24. IPCC. (2014) – Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change: Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Cambridge Univ. Press.

25. Kahraman, A., and Markowski, P. M. (2014) – Tornado climatology of Turkey. Mon. Wea. Rev., Nr. 142, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00364.1.

26. Kashif, A., Muhammad, Z. Q., Huaming, S., Muntasir, M., Haider, M., and Ijaz, Y. (2022) – A review of the global climate change impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Nr. 29.

27. Kovats R. S., Valentini R., Bouwer L.M., Georgopoulou E., Jacob D., Martin E., Rounsevell M., Soussana J. (2014) – Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York.

28. Kten Kate, W. (2008) – Lichten op groen in de Amerikaanseklimaatdiscussie? Internationale Spectator 62.

29. Kunz, M., Blahak, U., Handwerker, J., Schmidberger, M., Punge, H.J., Mohr, S., Fluck, E., and Bedka, K.M. (2018) – The severe hailstorm in southwest Germany on 28 July 2013: Characteristics, impacts and meteorological conditions. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., Nr. 144, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3197.

30. Leal Filho, W., Azeiteiro, U.M., Balogun, AL., Setti, AFF., Mucova, S.A., Ayal, D., and Oguge, N.O. (2021) – The influence of ecosystems services depletion to climate change adaptation efforts in Africa. Sci Total Environ 146414.

31. Leppänen, S., Saikkonen, L., and Ollikainen, M. (2014) – Impact of Climate Change on cereal grain production in Russia: Mimeo.

32. Li, X., Zhang, Q., Zou, T., Lin, J., Kong, H., and Ren, Z. (2018) – Climatology of hail frequency and size in China, 1980-2015. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., Nr. 57, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0208.1.

33. Lipczynska-Kochany, E. (2018) – Effect of climate change on humic substances and associated impacts on the quality of surface water and groundwater: a review. Sci Total Environ Nr. 640.

34. Michel, D., Eriksson, M., and Klimes, M. (2021) – Climate change and (in) security in transboundary river basins Handbook of Security and the Environment: Edward Elgar Publishing.

35. Murshed, M. (2022) – Pathways to clean cooking fuel transition in low and middle income Sub-Saharan African countries: the relevance of improving energy use efficiency. Sustainable Production and Consumption Nr. 30, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2021.12.016.

36. Murshed, M., Dao, N.T.T. (2020) – Revisiting the CO₂ emission-induced EKC hypothesis in South Asia: the role of Export Quality Improvement. GeoJournal. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-020-10270-9.

37. Murshed, M., Nurmakhanova, M., Elheddad, M., and Ahmed, R. (2020) – Value addition in the services sector and its heterogeneous impacts on CO₂ emissions: revisiting the EKC hypothesis for the OPEC using panel spatial estimation techniques. Environ Sci Pollut Res Nr. 27, Vol. 31, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09593-4.

38. Palencia, C., Giaiotti, D., Stel, F., Castro, A., and Fraile, R. (2010) – Maximum hailstone size: Relationship with meteorological variables. Atmos. Res., Nr. 96, https://doi.org/10.1016/j. atmosres.2009.08.011.

39. Ryan, B.F., and King, W.D. (1997) – A critical review of the Australian experience in cloud seeding. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Nr. 78.

40. Sánchez, J.L., and Coauthors, (2009) – Characterization of hailstone size spectra in hailpad networks in France, Spain, and Argentina. Atmos. Res., Nr. 93, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.09.033.

41. Schuster, S.S., Blong, R.J., Leigh, R.J., and McAneney, K.J. (2005) – Characteristics of the 14 April 1999 Sydney hailstorm based on ground observations, weather radar, insurance data and emergency calls. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., Nr. 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-5-613-2005.

42. Smith, P.L., and Waldvogel, A. (1989) – On determinations of maximum hailstone sizes from hailpad observation. J. Appl. Meteor., Nr. 28, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1989)028 <0071: ODOMHS>2.0.CO;2.

43. Sovacool, B.K., Griffiths, S., Kim, J., and Bazilian, M. (2021) – Climate change and industrial F-gases: a critical and systematic review of developments, sociotechnical systems and policy options for reducing synthetic greenhouse gas emissions. Renew Sustain Energy Rev Nr. 141.

44. Tuovinen, J.P., Punkka, A.J., Rauhala, J., Hohti, H., and Schultz, D.M. (2009) – Climatology of severe hail in Finland: 1930-2006. Mon. Wea. Rev., Nr. 137, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2707.1.

45. UNDP China National Human Development Report 2009/10 (2010) – China and a sustainable future: towards a low carbon economy and society. United Nations Development Programme, China Translating and Publishing Corporation, Beijing, 2010. Newsroom 15 April 2010.

46. Usman, M., Balsalobre-Lorente, D. (2022) – Environmental concern in the era of industrialization: Can financial development, renewable energy and natural resources alleviate some load? Ene Policy Nr. 162.

47. UWRL (Utah Water Research Laboratory), (1971) – Development of cold cloud seeding technology for use in precipitation management. Logon: Utah State University.

48. van Staden, A. (2011) – De verzamelnaam BRICs: meer dan modieuzeetikettering? Internationale Spectator 65.

49. World Bank (2010) – World Development Report 2010. The World Bank, Washington, DC.

50. Yeo, S., Leigh, R., and Kuhne, I. (1999) – The April 1999 Sydney Hailstorm. Aust. J. Emergency Manage., Nr. 14, Vol. 4.

51. https://www.fao.org/3/i5188e/I5188E.pdf

52. https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/speech/52nd-session-intergovernmental-panel-climate-change

53. https://www.undp.org/china/press-releases/chinas-low-carbon-future-critical-crossroads-says-new-report

54. https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/weather-climate

55. https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/download-data

56. https://selerys.fr/cloud-seeding-tools-oem/