The future of the world will be fine, but without a common West and East leveraged concept change is highly extensive and unfortunate.
Dr. Sorin Dobircianu, Ph.D. Sr. Excellence Lead Expert NATO Director THE EUROPEAN CENTER FOR MULTIDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH | THE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND LOBBY
Abstract:
I am honored and thrilled to share that I have been acknowledged in the specific international education and mutual Overseas ongoing projects and multidisciplinary strong partnerships as a result of my research focused on continuous studying and advanced research cognitive impact of Defence, Security [ Cyber, Maritime, Aviation ], Military, Oil-Gas-Energy, Environment and Political & Economic Diplomacy and International Relations.
I am privileged to represent my international community in the above-mentioned strategic sectors as a researcher and a dedicated Life Long Learner.
I want to personally thank my mentors, leaders, and friends for constantly being examples, pushing me to the potential, and believing in me, as a direct impact of both passion and dedication of these fields, which is truly inspiring, and holding immense potential to improving the sectors flourishing with the support of prestigious international organizations.
Now my chair continuously reminds me ”Now puts words on paper.” Highly recommend my students, colleagues and experts to pursuit their work further, because we should touch base, this is settled, and will assist in many ways.
On the existing international front, where the two great expansionist world systems are competing in the spectrum of struggles to redefine supremacy and the new world order, respectively, between the concepts of globalism and sovereignism, the digital age is successfully shaping reference scenarios, in which the players in lines 2 and 3 are placed in the horizons and within the limits of formulas “not to know, by impediment – not to access the environment – to know, with conditions imposed by the emerging international macrosystem – to be part of the organisation – to contribute to the vote – to participate in the decision – to (not) participate and influence, or not, with or without veto – etc. ”
Thus, in the digital age, corporate sustainability is defined as a complex, multi-faceted concept, in which corporations, organizations and agencies need to adopt holistic approach strategies, along the axes of sustainability and within the boundaries of building trust and loyalty scenarios towards customers and partners ( end-users ). Sustainability has direct and indirect correspondents in macro-economic, social and environmental sectoral formulas, and the role of this new concept is taking on new values, boosted by the new international dynamics, towards the horizons of the new global economy, related to the digital era. The immediate effects of the new laboratory policies established by the major world players, in formulas that include new types of corporate alliance systems, have their correspondents in measures such as the reduction of energy consumption in the branches and economies of relevant spaces and, implicitly, in the sectors that ensure the functioning and maintenance of governmental processes involving digitisation, with a focus on data centres, ensuring and securing the phenomenon of sustainable supply of energy raw materials, primarily the primary strategic objective of governments involved in global policies, which exercise special control levers across the spectrum of activities and actions subsequent to these government and corporate policies, such as the superior, scalable, continuous, systematic, resilient and cohesive exercise of advanced technology use, with direct correspondence in the processes by which new ‘products’ & ‘services’ launch-development measures, identified in advance, are implemented and carried out, are designed, with dedication, to address new markets ‘in need’, which are initially tested and whose representatives have restricted access to certain technologies, or who are prevented from accessing certain development programmes or major objectives, aiming or targeting access to technologies and implementation of new, modern technology, etc. ( hi tech, Know-How, Royalty, Trade Mark, Made in… Patent… etc )
The process is macro and global and refers, implicitly, to the models of new global theory, modelled according to macro scenarios, on geo-political doctrinaire and ideological non-suveranist axes and whereby the standard solution is delivered to the laboratory by the support that represents the LACK OF TRUST in the market and in the institutions, beyond any deontological, ethical, educational, or organizational culture, civic, social, political etc. formula.
The present complex international case history involves new strategic forms and scenarios, whose new principles, revised norms, conditions of association, participation, exclusion, arrangements, exceed the standard, conventional values and principles, depending on the established axes and formulas, of international relations, political relations, economic relations, diplomacy, economic diplomacy, etc.
In the context of the new global dynamics that the world is currently going through, the following asymmetrical scenarios are evident, marked, quite strongly, by the major global interests of some world political-economic conglomerates, whose targets are, mainly, access to resources, the prevention of some spaces/organisations to natural, mineral, banking, financial, investment, technological resources, etc., the denial or limitation of access to selected groups of interests or elite transnational and multinational organisations, etc.
In the context of current, accurate, precise, and, above all, timely projections of the world map of latent and unfolding military conflicts, the background analysis highlights a conclusion of the new role system belonging to the complex laboratory, as a remarkable joint intel superstructure represented by the 5 members: the U.S., the European Union, the European Union and the European Union. Cyber Security and Infrastructure Security ( CISA ), the Australian Cyber Security Centre ( ACSC ), New Zealand’s National Cyber Security Centre ( NCSC NZ) and Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT NZ), Canada’s Communications Security Establishment, the United Kingdom’s National Cyber Security Centre ( NCSC UK) – JOINT CYBERSECURITY ADVISORY, joined by FIVE EYES in Asia.
The response of the East does not hesitate to highlight, constantly, adapted to the developing strategies and, at least declaratively, the strategic objective of the Kremlin in Ukraine is the creation of a new world order, a point clearly supported and assumed, from the highest level of diplomacy of the Russian Federation, through the voice of the Foreign Minister, S. Lavrov, with the clear and explicit emphasis that the “unipolar world order led by a single hegemon” is rejected by Russia and any negotiation process must be based on taking into account Russian interests, Russian concerns and, at the same time, should refer to the principles on which the new world order will be based.”
A primary direction in the transnational expansionist-energy policies of the Russian Federation and also combined as a multinational strategy and alliance systems on the axes of international economic diplomacy is represented by the GEOPOLITICS OF OIL, in the context in which the strategic formula in question can influence and, considerably, change the map of the World, based on the world history related to the two great spheres:
- Global economic growth and prosperity over the last two centuries has been fuelled intensively by natural & mineral sources oil, coal, natural gas, with coal becoming the fuel needed to defend national security, promote the spectrum of economic activity and sustain world trade;The “Peak Oil” and “Energy Security” strategic models launched in the international-emerging markets took into account, in the laboratory design phase and also today, that a major source of national insecurity and main economic risk has a direct and immediate counterpart in the case: the disruption of oil supply.
The project in question has generated and led to surplus revenues for oil exporting countries and, in particular, for those in the Persian Gulf, and the surpluses in question have been “outsourced”, by industrialized nations and, respectively, by prestigious international organizations, which secure and secure world energy policies, through “oil recycling” operations and the recalibration of Saudi Arabia’s foreign policies into new systems of alliances with historical rivals.
Recession Fears Loom Over Oil Markets Once Again
- Petrodollar recycling
Increased demand for oil implies economic growth, and high prices create advantages and benefits not only for areas whose economies depend and are dependent on the income from oil exports from the Gulf area, but also for the group of rich, industrialized countries, which secure “oil rents” by various means; in conclusion, the petrodollar is the result of the efforts undertaken by the country issuing the currency, through which access to oil from the Middle East is ensured.
The international dynamics are taking on new dimensions, after the visits, meetings and high-level official agendas of the two sides, American and Chinese, in the overlapping context of the US – CHINA agenda, on the Taiwan axis, the military conflict in Ukraine, India, Southeast Asia, etc.
The matrix in which the parties have agreed implies new changes of global scale and scope: the redistribution and revision of the Asia-Africa markets, the repositioning of the US for Central and Central-West Africa and the allocation of the Asian market, in large part, to China, changes the context and perspective of the new macro segments in the areas of India, Indonesia (ASEAN), Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, etc;
One issue on which the parties have been and still remain at odds, in addition to the disputes over Taiwan’s international status, is Beijing’s consistent refusal to accept the US House of Representatives’ vote to raise the current standard and position China as a “developed/rich country”.
As a firm retort to US strategies, China and the Russian Federation are drawing the sword in the war against the US dollar with the new joint strategy adopted by Beijing and Moscow in the mutual governmental program undertaken by the ASIAN MONETARY FUND, whereby the two laboratories and governments respectively aim to challenge the hegemonic roles of Wall Street on a global scale.
Subsequently, one of Europe’s political and economic engines – France – has agreed to Paris buying gas from China and paying in “yuan”, following the visit, the state political agenda, the discussions, negotiations and firm agreements made by Presidents Emmanuel Macron and Xi Jinping. This is a purchase contract, sized at the volume of 65,000 tons of liquefied natural gas [ lpg ], signed, through the Shanghai Oil and Natural Gas Exchange, by the managements of CHINA NATIONAL OFFSHORE OIL CORPORATION (CNOOC) and Total Energies France, being the first energy transaction in this currency. “The yuan-settled transaction promotes multi-currency pricing, settlement and cross-border payment,” said exchange president Guo Xu. In line, President E. Macron said France would not lift a finger to ‘protect’ the island, assuming however that in the context of the Taiwan talks, “the big risk for Europe is to get caught up in crises that are not ours. ”
China’s strategies in relation to the island involve the international scenario whereby France signals the positioning of allied EU and NATO states on the one hand, but also the World scenario whereby, similar to Hong Kong, annexing Taiwan would have profound global consequences, and the economic and diplomatic calculations of any attack would be felt, quickly, everywhere, not just in the Chinese-speaking world, as the island produces over 60% of the world’s semiconductors and about 90% of the most advanced and sophisticated, on the other.
In such a situation, Chinese dominance in the Indo-Pacific will imply a global dynamic, as the region accounts for about two-thirds of the world’s population and also of the world’s gross domestic product, and the umbrella of pressure, monitoring and supreme control exercised continuously and systematically by China will instantly take over and, at the same time, replace the similar American one, which will permanently lose its reputation, significance and attribute as the most important nation in the world, and the effects of affecting Europe will be immediate, as the asymmetries and multiple disruptions in the triangular systems of international relations formulas began in February 2022 with a Russia-Ukraine military conflict that many (did not) expect. In the global dynamics in particular, sane analysts are trying to project the resorts of a US – China economic conflict and outline the essential types and varieties of scenarios to be avoided by both laboratories and governments that would annihilate a military conflict between the parties.
The Malaysian archipelago, which has opened up a series of agendas with China aimed at reducing dependence on the US dollar, is also in the game;
The main conclusion drawn by the great analysts of the world, assumed by the great intelligence laboratories is precisely outlined: “Dedollarization has entered the straight line, the Asian plan in particular is exactly the plan presented, supported and promoted by President V. Putin in previous BRICS meetings, whereby the Russian leader insisted on the removal of the American currency from financial transactions within the group, the Kremlin’s plans being carried out only with economic weapons and ammunition, in the context that “dedollarization” has begun, for now, only in the “globalist south”.
China will also support the establishment of the Asian Monetary Fund, as the Chinese Presidential Chancellery has officially indicated that it “is open and interested”, a statement made by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim after his last meeting with President Xi Jinping, China has already obtained the support of its Asian allies for the creation of such a regional monetary fund and the Chinese leader is choosing Kuala Lumpur, in contrast to Jakarta, the hub that owns, besides the Indonesian archipelago, the entire ASEAN market, valued at around 600 million consumers.
The strategic concept in question was also supported by China and the Russian Federation at the Boao Forum in April 2023, held in Hainan, the only chancellors reluctant to the position juxtaposed by Beijing and Moscow and to which all the Asian players had previously agreed were South Korea and Japan, who would oppose the tactics, measures and plans to prepare the establishment of this fund for Asia, whose guidelines and policies would “considerably reduce dependence on the IMF, which must be driven out of the market, along with the big finance dealers. “, a model adopted even by Singapore, whose officials, in early 2023, spoke clearly and publicly about the measures to be undertaken and carried out, in order to mitigate the dependence of the Asian market on the dollar, a currency that would have weakened local currencies and which, rather, has become an instrument of the state.
In Europe, the asymmetries of the German government’s general economic policies, with their focus on energy security formulas, have generated new problems, by creating, on sight, the image of a weak link in the EU’s energy security, as Berlin says NO to the nuclear sector, throwing itself into the “green transition” void, despite the fact that many countries in the EU bloc depend on efficient and clean nuclear energy, while our continent is assiduously searching for it, an alternative to Russian gas, and in the rush to achieve the ‘climate targets’, pending changes in precipitation (un)stabilisation, melting ice caps, the greenhouse effect, pollution, environmental problems, and the considerable damage to the world’s terrestrial and marine-oceanic flora and fauna, the Berlin government plans to shut down all coal-fired power stations by 2038, many of them by 2030, and to install four to five wind farms every day.
All the more interesting will be the immediate and prospective effects of the implementation, not only in Europe, but even in the world, of the projects, in Premiere, of the Romanian-American strategic energy curriculum, in the nuclear field, whereby, in our country, through ‘diversification’, the NuScale systems [ NuScale Power & RoPower ] will operate and produce energy, a program operated in a dispersed system, on a national scale, in order to reduce dependence on mineral resources & Eastern energy, an example that the establishment in Washington D. C. wants to give to the region, and to Europe in general, in relation to the expansionist strategies of the Eastern macro-system, whereby the risks in question are greatly dissipated, in the context of homogenization, re-purposing, alternation, diversification and transition from classical sources and mineral-conventional resources to modern technologies, which use sustainable and sustainable green, inexhaustible renewable-energy & alternative resources.
The future will be interesting, and the role of the indigenous, auhtonian political-diplomatic and institutional factor will be overwhelming for Romania: senior or vassal, through performance, high performance or excellence in performance, decisions that can lead the country to take a hierarchically superior, dominant position, in relation to the subordination resorts of the EU-US-Asia triangular system, or a lower, dominated one, at the base of the described triangular system. This will depend on the place they will choose, in which they will place themselves, sit, if they are allowed, and present the two Romanian poles, the political-diplomatic and the institutional-military, through which, on the directions of force-power-authority expressed at the table of the club of world interests, according to the multidisciplinary roles that they will learn, assume and will learn, themselves and, respectively, interpret, on the integrated scene of the great junctions of interests circumscribed by the world programs and the new arrangements in progress, in the new multidisciplinary formulas of “Supplier – Consumer”.
Now Romania enters the scene, which has to perform, in the next year horizon, in the context of the assumption of a major and exclusive European role, by Poland, in advanced European military and security projects, of the extended derivation of the successful Warsaw economic model, strongly supported by the United States, in competition with the roles circumscribed to the Franco-German European operating model, whose strategy includes, among other things, the old considerations and pending historical theories of international agreements and conventions between states and also those of the existing borders in Europe before the Second World War, including those of the Oder – Neisse and Galicia (Halicia) concepts, and which must know how to “claim and receive” its historical territories in addition to Moldova.
In this new world club of interests, in which you have to introduce yourself, to declare yourself, clearly, and to assume your own roles and resources, together with your capacities and capabilities, you cannot say: I don’t know… I can’t… or I’m wrong.
We will see if the Romanian laboratory will perform, as it is the historical chance of the Romanian People to succeed.
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