Update 2/15/2023
We like to update our stories for folks.
From Foreign Policy’s Morning Dispatch by Emily Tamkin
“Russia Denies Moldovan Coup Claims”
Russia has denied the Moldovan leadership’s allegations that the Kremlin sought to overthrow the country’s government.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu said that Russia was planning to attack government buildings, take hostages, and put the nation “at the disposal of Russia” to keep it from joining the European Union. Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that it had intercepted Russian plans on the destruction of Moldova. Moldova has said that it confirmed the allegations. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova said Sandu’s claims were “absolutely unfounded and unsubstantiated.”
Original Post
This week extensive missile strikes hit across Ukraine in what many believe to be a precursor to a major Russian offensive to consolidate control over Eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Moldovan government, next to Ukraine and also partially occupied by Russia, resigned and is reforming a with a new “security” government.
Here is our assessment of where things are.
What’s the bottom line? Military operations on the ground not transatlantic politics and posturing are going to determine what happens. It is going to be bumpy tense couple of weeks. Anyone who tells you exactly how this is going to play out is either a fortune teller or just got back from a trip with their time machine. As we have written before, there are too many unknowns that limit our ability to really know what is happening on the ground.
What’s the deal in Moldova? What likely triggered the response in Moldova was Vladimir Zelenskyy yesterday, in his speech at the European Council, said that Ukrainian intelligence had intercepted Russia’s plan to establish control over Moldova and warned the Moldovan side about this. Recently, Russian missiles fired at Ukraine overflew Moldova and Romania. U.S. military spokespersons have said they see no imminent Russian military threat to Moldova or Romania. But, you can understand that folks are pretty nervous.
How is this affecting Europe? No question, Europe is weathering the winter better than expected and governments are proving remarkably stable and resilient despite inflation, higher energy prices, and concerns about the conflict. There are many reports of Europeans willingness to provide more aid to Ukraine. Most of that won’t get there in time to affect the outcome of this offensive.
It is notable how European solidarity on Ukraine has held-particularly with conservative center-right governments (Orban yesterday warmly shook Zelenskyy’s hand). All the conservative center right governments are solid on Ukraine, increasing defense spending, pushing for more burden sharing with the US, and increasingly more pro-US. They are turning to be the strongest U.S. partners in Europe who share many of our same priorities on a range of issues from dealing with China to energy.
What’s Next? One scenario is Putin is successful in consolidating control, but then he will have expended a lot, and would likely let Ukraine devolve into a frozen conflict-rearm and refit and continue to try destabilize the West.
Another scenario is the offensive fails and Ukraine can counterattack and gain even more territory and inflict a humiliating defeat.
Or we might see something ambivalent in between.
What is least likely is negotiations until after this round of fighting.
For all the reporting on the war we actually in the public space have very little hard intel on a number of very significant questions about the state of the two militaries so long-term predictions are just guessing.
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