Moscow regularly engages in nuclear saber rattling, and its battlefield problems in Ukraine have only increased the tempo and volume of Russian rhetorical reliance on nuclear weapons. Using nuclear weapons, even on a very limited, tactical level, is not cost-free, however. The global consequences in particular may be counterproductive for Russia.
Even though tactical nuclear weapons are meant to alter the dynamics on the battlefield—in this case, in Ukraine—their use by Russia targets the West as the primary audience. The tactical target is Ukraine and its forces, but the strategic audience is the West. Russia could launch a tactical nuclear weapon in order to block a Ukrainian offensive, to destroy an urban center, or even to simply signal the willingness of further escalation by exploding it over an uninhabited area far from the frontline. Regardless of the immediate target, the principal effect sought would be to demonstrate to the Western alliance that Russia was willing to use the “absolute weapon,” breaking an alleged international taboo, and above all threatening to escalate a local war on the eastern steppes of Europe into a wider conflagration with devastating consequences for the whole continent, if not more. The purpose of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine would be to terrorize the West, compelling it through the fear of further nuclear escalation to stop its military backing of Kyiv. Putin may be calculating that because of this fear, the West would cease the cautious but so far consistent and very effective logistical support of Ukrainian forces, letting Russian manpower and artillery achieve battlefield dominance.
Russia could be partially correct in such an assessment because the immediate benefit would likely be a disintegration of the superficial Western unity in support of Kyiv. In some European capitals (Berlin, Paris, Rome), while criticizing Putin for the use of nuclear weapons, a lot of voices on every side of the political spectrum will call for the end of hostilities, putting enormous pressure on Ukraine to end its military operations and to acquiesce to a diplomatic deal favorable to Moscow.
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