James Jay Carafano
We have been reporting on Russia’s war against Ukraine from the get go. Months ago we concluded this is a war Putin cannot win. That assessment is probably correct. When the fighting stops there will still be a free and independent Ukraine.
Currently, the consensus seems to be that, regardless, Putin is preparing another major offensive to consolidate control over the territories Russia currently occupies. Then perhaps he will allow the war to devolve into a frozen conflict and go back and rearm and rebuild for another day.
That said, projections on the course of the war have been wrong in the past. So we turned to a distinguished military expert, Tom Spoehr, and asked—what should we be asking? Here are his thoughts.
How do we know what is really going on and what will happen next? I think it is useful to remind ourselves just how little we know about the war. We get these ISW [Institute for the Study of War] reports, which are nice. But these reports are based on internet spot reports, what the Ukrainian military releases, and Russian milbloggers.
But just like Sherlock Holmes and the dog that didn’t bark, there is a lot we don’t know.
What are some of the issues you are trying to track? Does Ukraine have formations, i.e. battalions and brigades, that are uncommitted? That could either be used to mount an offense or to counter a Russian attack. Have seen nothing on that.
Similarly, does Russia have uncommitted formations that are massing for an offensive in the Donbas? Ukraine says yes. How many? U.S. intelligence certainly knows this, but we do not.
How are both sides stocks of both precision and dumb munitions? You see lots of speculation based on pre-war stocks and consumption rates. But no one knows for sure.