Nataliia NECHAIEVA-YURIICHUK^

INTRODUCTION

From February 24, 2022 the world is living in a completely new and unpre-dictable situation. The International order was undermined with the open military aggression of Russian Federation against the sovereign European state – Ukraine. The war between these two states has begun since 2014. The Revolution of Dignity proved the European integration course of Ukraine as the clear and determined choice of Ukrainian people. The reaction of Moscow was predictable in the content while unpredictable in the shape. Russian political elite, first of all Russian president V. Putin, couldn’t accept the independence of Ukraine and its’ choice in favour of the EU. The experience of the Orange Revolution of 2004 allowed to think about “gas wars” against Ukraine and similar steps for further economic and political pressure on it. But it was: 1) really difficult for one to accept the very idea of military invasion by Russia into Ukraine; and 2) to prepare to it in the circumstances of pro-Russian governance of V. Yanukovych, president of Ukraine in 2010-2014.

The sudden appearance of so-called “green humans” in Crimea and its further annexation that came together with the occupation of the part of Ukrainian lands on the eastern border was the open demonstration of Russian aggression toward Ukraine. It aims at blocking the European integration course also, which was chosen by Ukrainian people. To define it more clear, those events that were the start of the new World war. It evolves in new circumstances but looks like vicious repetition of the previous ones: with the new “Strange war” but in the East, annexation (or Anschluss) of the neighbouring territory and further full-scaled military invasion. Of course, there are many peculiarities to be observed, but Russia as the aggressor didn’t create any acceptable / justified basis for pardoning or accepting those ugly actions. The time frames of new clashes are wider than during the First and the Second world wars, but the main motive of the aggressor looks quite similar: to spread over and settle up its dominance in the world. It’s worth to note, while during the previous wars there were different alliances created before, now citizens of different states are not only witnessing the process of creation of such alliances, but also influence the decision-making process of their authorities. This statement is true for democratic states only. Those authoritarian states likewise Belarus, China etc.: the political decisions are totally under the authorities’ control.

Also, it is necessary to add, that the process of involving peoples and states into the war has much in common with the previous experience. Aggressive and all-comprehensive propaganda plays an immensive role in the process of public opinion formation. Nowadays the world community has to deal with the avalanche of fake news and disinformation which are the part of Russian propaganda narratives. They are directed toward different target audience (from domestic audience of the Russian population to foreign peoples in different regions and states), and comprise different forms, methods and instruments. All of that is supposed to make an influence on the democratic world first of all in order to prevent them supporting Ukraine. Under those circumstances Ukraine has been pushed to start its war toward independence.

In this article we’ll try to overview the new geopolitical initiatives in Black Sea region of last years and to analyse the influence of Russian military open-scaled invasion of Ukraine in February, 24, 2022 to interstate relations in their frames.

NEW GEOPOLITICAL INITIATIVES IN BLACK SEA REGION:
UKRAINIAN FACTOR

From the early beginning of its independence till now Ukraine became the member and active participant of a number of international organizations, initiatives and so on. After the beginning of the Russian intervention into Ukraine in 2014 the question about the future of the regional security got a momentum. The problem was sharpened by the activation of Russian international policy aimed on intervention into the internal affairs of European states like supporting the radical left and rights (in Germany and France, for example), instigating regional separatism (Scottish, Catalonian referendums), wide practices of intervention into the electoral processes etc. The analysis of the main Russian propaganda narratives is allowing to state permanent attempts of ruining of the positive image of Ukrainian independence and Ukrainian state as the main aim of it. Discrimination of Ukraine as the potential member of the EU with the further idea of leaving it in the sphere of Russian influence is, on author’s point of view, the part of Kremlin’s actual strategy as the world’s geopolitical player. The launch of the wild-scaled military aggression of it on February 24, 2022 proves this statement.

Facing with those new realities Ukraine starts transforming its foreign policy to more proactive stance. New geopolitical initiatives regarding the Black Sea region became to the part of it. In October, 2020 presidents of Ukraine and Turkey agreed on the new, closer format of interaction via bilateral dialogue¹. In December, 2020 the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dm. Kuleba and the Minister of Defence of Ukraine A. Taran met with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Republic of Turkey Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and the Minister of National Defence of Republic of Turkey Hulusi Akar and held the first meeting of “Quadriga” as the new format of bilateral dialogue between Ukraine and Turkey². During the meeting the questions about the security situation in the Black Sea region has been discussed as well as some possible directions and spheres of further cooperation between two states outlined³.

In March, 2021 Ukraine and Turkey hold security consultations, where “the ways to deepen security and defence cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey to restore stability and security in the Black Sea region and further develop interaction in the field of defence industry” were also touched upon⁴. Turkey confirms its support to the national sovereignty of Ukraine, non-recognition of Crimea’s annexation by Russia and its participation in Crimean platform, which was created by Ukraine in December, 2020 (the same year as Quadriga)⁵. Next official meetings of two parties were aimed at promoting the open dialogue between Ukraine and Turkey and to establish mutually beneficial cooperation between them. In light of current Russian war against Ukraine the development of cooperation in defence industry in Quadriga format deserves some more attention. As open data demonstrates in 2021 there were launched around 30 different common projects in aviation, space and defence industries in the frames of Quadriga. Between them worthy of mentioning the corvette being built at a shipyard in Istanbul for the needs of the Ukrainian Navy, and the Turkish Bayraktar TV2 UAVs transferred to Ukraine, are Ukrainian engines for Turkish T929 ATAK-II attack helicopters⁶. At the beginning of February, 2022, just before the open-scaled Russian military aggression, Turkey delegation arrived into Ukraine. And again Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stressed that Turkey is ready to become the mediator in Russian-Ukrainian conflict. As far as we can see right now, this point of mediation looks like one of the funda-mental concern of the Turkish foreign policy. This position is shaky and uncertain in lights of absolutely unpredictability of the key violator of not regional security but the future existence of the world. Nuclear blackmail from Russia, the failure of the grain agreement, not to mention the systematic and total violations of signed international agreements, along with double or even triple standards of playing the political game, is a powerful challenge to the system of international security. Turkey is trying to keep the possibility for further negotiation process. It looks positive from the perspectives of keeping the previous system of international security. But on our personal position, it collapsed. Right now we are constructing the new one. And the role of a mediator, in our opinion, in it does not correspond to the interests of Turkey above all.

Another geopolitical initiative launched in 2020 was Lublin Triangle. This triple regional configuration is created for political, socio-economic, cultural cooperation between Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine. The idea of such alliance has a long history and flavoured with distinct symbolism. The first Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth Rzecz Pospolita was founded in Lublin at 1569. And Ukrainian lands which were the part of the Great Duchy of Lithuania were also included there. For next 200 years this new born state played a dominant role in European politics and history.

Recent changes in geopolitical situation provoked by Russian aggression into Ukraine demanded from the Baltic region states to look for the new forms of with-standing those challenges. On July, 28, 2020 the Lublin Triangle became the new political reality⁷. The main aims of the alliance are defined as follow: 1) strengthening the dialogue between the three states; 2) support Ukraine in its integration into the EU and NATO; 3) common opposition to Russian aggression in Ukraine. All members of the Lublin Triangle have declared that “they do not recognize Russia’s illegal occupation of Crimea and under no circumstances recognize it in the future”; and called Russia to withdraw troops from temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories⁸.

The first summit of Lublin Triangle heads of states was held in December, 2021; and the main topic of it was the situation on Russian-Ukrainian border and the risk of escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Andrzej Duda, the President of Poland, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, the President of Ukraine and Gitanas Nausėda, the President of Lithuania elaborated and signed up the Joint Declaration, were they assured the unconditional support to Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

In the context of the regional security initiatives it makes sense to remind that after P. Poroshenko was elected the President of Ukraine, the state officially proclaimed and fixed the Euro-Atlantic integration course in its Constitution. The Association agreement of Ukraine and the EU has been signed in 2014, firstly the economic part of them and a bit later the political one. Ukraine became the association member of the EU as Georgia and Republic of Moldova. All of these states have to move from the authoritarian and corrupted past towards democratic states with the rule of law. All of them have to start and implement reforms in all spheres, like juridical, economic, social etc. They have to deal with the huge opposition towards their Europeanization and related reforms. Common Soviet past together with Russia’s tough grasp make a thundering mixture in the form of political instability and the unpredictability of the development of all three states.

Common challenges and strategic goal of Georgia, Republic of Moldova and Ukraine in European integration became the basis for the establishment of Association Trio of those states in May, 2021⁹. This format allows to Georgia, Republic of Moldova and Ukraine to coordinate their concerted efforts with regard to their European integration process. The first summit of Association Trio was held in Batumi (Georgia) on July, 19, 2021. Declaration signed up with leaders of all three states made the main emphasis on the importance of the “tripartite cooperation between our countries regarding European integration”, namely Georgia, Republic of Moldova and Ukraine¹⁰. Special attention has been paid to the security issues and the assessment of the Russia’s role in destabilization the situation in all three states and Europe in a whole. The Declaration stressed: “Russia’s annexation attempts and illegal occupation of Georgian territories, its aggression in eastern Ukraine and temporary occupation of Crimea, as well as the unresolved conflict in the Transnistria region of the Republic of Moldova pose a serious threat to the region and Europe as a whole. We are ready to work together with the EU on ways to peacefully resolve conflicts and ensure long-term peace, stability and security in the region, including by strengthening the role and involvement of the EU”¹¹.

In October, 2021 Dm. Kuleba, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, proclaimed that “in the circumstances of political turbulence and vacuum of security in the region Associated Trio is the island of democracy”¹². In his speech on the Association Exchange Forum he declares that the alliance of Ukraine, Georgia and Republic of Moldova is the vital part of the general strategy of the proactive foreign policy of Ukraine, complementary to European integration of these states and is aiming at the region security betterment by and large.

The EU supports the Associated Trio formation. In its Common Statement based on the results of the 23^rd Ukraine-European Union Summit the last underlined the necessity of strengthening up the effort for countering the hybrid threats and struggle with disinformation spread by Kremlin. Russia as the aggressor was condemned several times and the EU’s officials underline the importance of enhancing cooperation in the sphere of Common Security and Defence Policy¹³.

Further activity of all three states proved their willingness to cooperate closely on their way to the future membership in the EU. Every state has its peculiar domestic political situation. Still they all are united by their common tragic experience of their sovereignty violation by Russia. Thus the cooperation with the EU in different spheres was and still remains the important part of the national strategies of development of Ukraine, Republic of Moldova and Georgia. All of that has been underlined in the Common Declaration of the leaders of the cooperating states / governments as result of the 6^th Summit of Eastern Partnership¹⁴.

For several years Ukraine initiated a number of new geopolitical initiatives with the powerful potential as the key regional player under circumstances of political turbulence and instability. However the new phase of Russian military aggression revealed the strengths and weaknesses of the newly created alliances.

FEBRUARY 24, 2022: A LITMUS TEST FOR THE PARTNERSHIP

From February, 2022 the threat of Russian aggression was felt by all states of Black Sea Region. Despite the fact that before it was wars in Georgia and Syria, the open invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine looked incredibly probable; in some sense it might be considered as the ‘black swan’ of the contemporary geopolitics. Ukraine is no way the first and only victim of Russian aggression. Still it is the first state in the XXI^st century which was intervened by another state, which earlier declared and assured the security guarantees for Ukraine before.

More than 10 months of Russian aggression demonstrates unpreparedness of not only Ukraine but also the whole world to those truly tragic events. Conventional military warfare has been rapidly transformed into the open terrorism of Russia against Ukraine and Ukrainians. The massacre of the civilians, raping of women and girls, killing of children is added with the purposeful destruction of civilian infra-structure in order to disable energy supply. All of those testifies the absolute disregard of Russia to the norms of not only of the Law, but also basic morality, not to mention the principles of international order. The heroic struggle of Ukraine is not only about its sovereignty and independence. It’s about the democracy as the basic principle of national self-determination and state organization, and the true commitment to the principles of the international law.

Participants of the mentioned above regional geopolitical initiatives were deeply concerned with the open Kremlin military aggression and declared their consolidated position in it. All of them condemned Russia and its aggression against Ukraine. For instance, from the first days of Russian full-scaled military invasion on Turkey condemns Russia’s aggression and expressed strong support to Ukrainian territorial integrity¹⁵. The progression of the war into a protracted phase influenced Turkish positions, which could be verified by its actions. As far as one can see Turkey tries keeping its position as a mediator in the open war between Russia and Ukraine. However it did not joint to some sanctions against Russia and tries to use the situation to “further increase its regional and global influence by assuming the role of mediator” not only between Russia and Ukraine but also between Russia and the West¹⁶. The grain deal signed in Istanbul demonstrates the strong willingness of Ankara to keep special relations with both confronting sides. Under contemporary conditions, from author’s point of view, it’s a possible position but making the strategic image of those state on the international scene compromised. Despite the great admiration of the Ukrainian society for Byraktars, relations between the two states acquire a more pragmatic character, which in turn make the important impact on the security architecture of the Black Sea region in the nearest future.

As far as Georgia is concerned, the open war of Russia against Ukraine is a painful reminder of 2008 August war for the nation. Georgian authorities condemned RF and expressed solidarity with Ukraine¹⁷. But the situation with the further interaction between Georgian and Ukraine officials are not so good and simple. From one side, Georgia continues its’ interaction in frames of common European integration efforts as it was agreed up to the Association Trio agreements. It also assists Ukraine and Ukrainians with the humanitarian aid. From the other side, it didn’t introduce bilateral sanctions against Russia and Belarus. It obstructs the volunteer fighters who want to protect Ukraine by arms. All that led to the distinct split in the Georgian society with the demonstrations of people opposing the official governmental policy. In reward for such a stance, Russia partly cancelled its’ trade sanctions against Georgian. Surely it welcomed the Georgian authorities’ decision not to introduce sanctions against Russia.

Republic of Moldova is even in the more complicated situation in comparison with Georgia. President Maia Sandu condemns Russia’s invasion into Ukraine openly. Moldova accepts thousands of Ukrainian refuges and assists Ukrainians with the humanitarian aid. Still it does not introduce sanctions neither against Russia not Belarus. The absence of sanctions can be explained by the total gas dependence of the Republic of Moldova from Russia and the frozen Transnistrian conflict on its’ territory. Putin uses energy shortages as a weapon against Moldova to force it for at least neutrality in the war. As lawmaker Dumitru Alaiba states, “We have to survive the winter and the Russians know it very well, but I’m sure those in Transnistria also feel very unsafe and unhappy now, even if they will do what they’re told by Moscow”¹⁸.

The strongest support during the new stage of the Russian-Ukraine war Kyiv and Ukrainians got from Poland and Lithuania, which are the members of Lublin Triangle. From the first day of the invasion till now they provide powerful political, military, and humanitarian support to Ukraine. The Prime Ministers of the Lublin Triangle declared that they “consider this premeditated attack against a sovereign, peaceful and democratic state as a blatant violation of fundamental principles of international law”¹⁹. Due to the open data the Lithuanian assistance to Ukraine in absolute number can reach about 600-700 million euro. And one third of it is the military assistance²⁰. Poland is the second after the USA state by the level of support in time of Russian aggression. Warsaw assists Kyiv more than for 3 billion dollars²¹. Both states are supporting the European integration course of Ukraine and its’ struggle against Russian Federation aggression. Moreover, from the first day of the war in 2014 till today these states were always on the Ukrainian side supporting its’ sovereignty and territorial integrity.

CONCLUSIONS

Brief overview of the situation with the positions and actions of states – members of new geopolitical initiatives with the Ukraine as the participant allows to make some assumptions. First of all, the idea of making different new alliances in Black Sea region was and still is valuable and perspective. The regional security depends on a number of factors but the aggressive policy of Russia is the key one of them.

Secondly, the security issue should be the priority for all of the region’s states. The world came to the understanding of necessity of development of new algorithms for states’ conduct in critical situation. And on authors point of view the mutual res-ponsibility of every state under changing circumstances should be clear determined. Right now main threats and challenges to the international and regional security can be clarified. And the algorithms of political behaviour should be not only suggested but agreed by all states. Of course that is the idealistic approach, but in our opinion it’s the only way for keeping our world secure.

The reaction of states, which take part in those new initiative like Quadriga, Associated Trio and Lublin Triangle to the Russian war makes them fully aware of the fact, that energy dependence is the powerful weapon which RF widely exploit in its war against Ukraine and the whole democratic world.

And last but not the least, despite all political challenges and dependences the countries of the Black Sea region and the EU are on their common way in building up a new international security system without the dominant influence of Russia. Regional political actors are gradually getting the role of the main protectors of regional stability and security.