Joseph E. FALLON
Geopolitics has been defined as “The struggle over the control of geographical entities with an international and global dimension, and the use of such geographical entities for political advantage.”1
But Geopolitics can best be understood as the application of Sir Isaac Newton’s Laws of Motion to international relations. These laws “explain the relationship between a physical object [a state] and the forces acting upon it [other states].”2
NATO’s enlargement and Moscow’s response to that enlargement in the Black Sea region is a case in point.
“The perception that Russia’s decline was so deep and irreversible that it would no longer be able to resist Western initiatives made it difficult to accept Moscow’s pushback against Western policies. This was a particular problem when the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) pursued several rounds of enlargement in the 1990s and early 2000s under U.S. leadership. U.S. leaders ignored Russia’s objections and underestimated the lengths to which Russian counterparts were prepared to go to secure the homeland against perceived threats.”3
Russia claims the West promised Soviet President Gorbachev in 1990 in the “Two-Plus-Four” Agreement4 that in exchange for German reunification and continued membership in NATO of a reunified Germany, NATO would not be enlarged beyond the borders of the reunited Germany. “Russia has diplomatically contested the en-largement of NATO since discussions concerning the issue began in 1992.”5
Nearly twenty years later, an investigation conducted by the German news magazine, Spiegel, confirmed Russia’s allegation. “After speaking with many of those involved and examining previously classified British and German documents in detail, SPIEGEL has concluded that there was no doubt that the West did everything it could to give the Soviets the impression that NATO membership was out of the question for countries like Poland, Hungary or Czechoslovakia.”6
1 Colin Flint, Introduction to Geopolitics, 3rd edition. p. 16; 36-39 https://chass.usu.edu/aggiesgo/ geopolitics-defined
2 “Newton’s Laws of Motion”, NASA Glenn Research Center, last updated May 25, 2021, https://www1. grc.nasa.gov/beginners-guide-to-aeronautics/newtons-laws-of-motion/
3 Eugene Rumer, Richard Sokolsky, “Grand Illusions: The Impact of Misperceptions About Russia on U.S. Policy”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 30, 2021, https://carnegieendowment.org/ 2021/06/30/grand-illusions-impact-of-misperceptions-about-russia-on-u.s.-policy-pub-84845
4 “’2+4’ Talks and the Reunification of Germany, 1990”, U.S. Department of State Archive, January 20, 2001-January 20, 2009, https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/pcw/108224.htm
5 LTC James M. Milano, “NATO Enlargement from the Russian Perspective”, Strategy Research Project, U.S. Army War College, 1998, file:///C:/Users/Joseph/Downloads/453037%20(1).pdf
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