Internet speeds over a hundred times faster than today’s. Appliances, buildings and vehicles all communicating with each other seamlessly. A world transformed by mobile digital integration.

This is the world that 5G – the fifth generation of mobile wireless technology – promises. The innovation it brings about could revolutionize entire economies. But as with any breakthrough, the opportunities come along with a host of dangers. Security breaches could sabotage states and businesses, and lead to new, deeper invasions of privacy. Whoever has the upper hand in influencing and controlling 5G will have tremendous geopolitical sway.

5G and cyber insecurity

Greater reliance on 5G networks will equate to greater cyber insecurity, warned GIS expert Diane Katz in a May 2019 report. The U.S. and its allies are deeply concerned that this heightened vulnerability is coinciding with the peaking of China’s command of wireless technology, both as a manufacturer of electronics and as an aggressive (and subsidized) financier of 5G deployment across Eurasia, she wrote.

The prominence of China’s technology, through companies like Huawei, which makes both telephones and much of the 5G infrastructure, poses a dilemma for countries as they roll out their networks. Chinese firms are legally compelled to work with the country’s intelligence services. In fact, Huawei was founded by Ren Zhengfei, a former officer of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. According to NATO, “the fear remains that adopting 5G technology from Huawei would introduce a reliance on equipment which can be controlled by the Chinese intelligence services and the military.”

Under President Donald Trump, the U.S. tried to discourage allies from using Huawei equipment. “If a country adopts [Chinese technology] and puts it in some of their critical information systems, we won’t be able to share information with them, we won’t be able to work alongside them,” said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at the time.

Nevertheless, warned Ms. Katz, the EU was still wavering in its decision on whether to allow Chinese 5G technology. “The lure of lower-cost deployment and other investment appears to be trumping security,” she wrote. Since then, however, several EU nations, including Germany recently, have enacted laws barring the use of technology from “untrustworthy” suppliers.

Some have argued that the U.S. and other Western governments should subsidize their own 5G technology providers to compete. But, Ms. Katz wrote, “there is no way for the U.S. to out-China China.”

Who’s winning the race?

In an update six months later, Ms. Katz pointed out that the U.S. was ahead of China in 5G commercialization and applications. She said that characterizations in the media that the U.S. is lagging behind in the technology rollout were “erroneous.”

“The installation of cells, antennas and optical fiber that will constitute the 5G network is a mammoth task that will take a decade or more in developed countries and trillions of dollars to complete. It is more of a slog than a race,” she wrote.

Once the final rollout is achieved, however, the benefits will be enormous – and the advantages do not necessarily come with who launches the services first, but from the technological leaps that spring from “the ‘intelligent’ systems and immersive activities that will harness 5G’s blazing download and upload speeds, its unparalleled capacity, and ultra-low latency.”

Fudging the numbers

The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, recently released a report called “The Great 5G Race: Is China Really Beating the United States?” In it, the organization explains how China manipulates its 5G numbers to make it look like it is ahead, when in fact the race is very close. It makes several key points, among them:

• China’s reporting of 5G “package subscribers” should not be conflated to mean the number of 5G users. Not every 5G subscriber has a 5G-capable device, nor does every 5G subscriber actually have access to a 5G network
• China’s mobile operators tend to count base stations, whereas U.S. operators report physical sites. Usually, there are multiple base stations for each cell site or tower, so it’s important not to conflate these numbers
• A larger 5G network does not guarantee superior network performance. All else being equal, China will need roughly 4.5 times as many cell sites as the United States to support its substantially larger population
• Adjusted by the size of population served, the U.S. and China have a similar deployment pace. In 2019, the U.S. companies built 1 cell site for every 7,134 people; China was projected to build about 1 site for every 6,965 people by the end of 2020

But China outpaces the world in the regulatory realm, including spectrum allocation and infrastructure siting, by virtue of its centralized, authoritarian government. Those benefits, however, also undermine innovation.

“The ultimate winners,” she concluded, “will be nations that unleash innovation and investment from the government’s grip, and that trust free enterprise and individual liberty to create life-enhancing technologies.”

Microchip factor

Another factor putting the U.S. ahead in the development of 5G is its lead in semiconductor (microchip) manufacturing. In a March 2021 report, GIS expert Dr. Junhua Zhang explained that China is well behind in its semiconductor technology. “Local chip manufacturers in mainland China produced a total of only $8.3 billion worth of chips in 2020, accounting for only 5.9 percent of the Chinese market and only 2.1 percent of the global market share.” Taiwan is the global leader, but there are several leading U.S. firms that design and produce microchips as well.