dr. Silviu NATE
Abstract. Tensions around Libya have increased due to different approaches of coastal states, some of them adopting unilateral attitudes. Turkey’s turmoil has increased amid the agreement signed by Greece, Israel and Cyprus for the EastMed pipeline, with the aim of supplying Europe with resources from the Levant Basin. The Berlin conference on Libya (January 19, 2020) seems to be making progress only on paper and reiterating the measures already envisaged by the UN. The conflicts in Syria and Libya highlight the importance of strengthening NATO’s southern and eastern flanks. The US has always considered that NATO’s southern flank developments are critical to its security. This was the case during the Cold War, but there is no reason to believe that Washington’s position has changed fundamentally. The dynamics of the proxy groups condition the chances of predictability for the future of Libya, and the positioning of non-state actors in the region determines the polarized support for the two Libyan power fronts. While Sarraj and Erdoğan are suspected of having established relations with the Muslim Brotherhood, an organization accused of supporting terrorist groups, Arab states (Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates) are supporting General Haftar to remove extremist groups from Libyan deserts.
Keywords: Libya, energy, geoeconomics, Levant Basin, EastMed, proxies
Director, Centrul de Studii Globale, Universitatea „Lucian Blaga” din Sibiu