dr. Vasile SIMILEANU

Abstract. The geopolitics of the Middle East is a difficult one to approach – even if we have a global Islamic space with a central Arab core – because the connections and laws of composition are totally different from the Western way of thinking. However, I have tried in the following lines to find those chains so necessary for a relevant scientific analysis. We have chosen several states with specific manifestations, on which the security and geopolitics of the Middle East depend. In my paper Geopolitics of the Islamic Space (2008-2009), I approached several aspects, some of them being summarized in this study.

If we analyze the states of the Middle East, we will find that we have a complex network of strategic, economic, cultural-linguistic, ethno-confessional, political, military, social systems intertwined in complex geopolitical systems, which give strength and importance to this unique space.

In this context, the scenarios constructed in the form of geopolitical systems specific to the Islamic world – which we have promoted in this book – are based on truths generated by geographical space, cultural, religious and ethnic-linguistic resources (although, for the most part or for Africa – which has its specificities and niches – these are a mix of realities) as well as the identification of “driving forces” that lead to major changes in socio-political realities or significant change in the influence of state actors.

By deepening and developing the research of these geopolitical systems, which we have proposed as a theoretical model, we can identify threats of any kind in the geopolitical field that could endanger the interests of the actor in that space. The evaluation of the ratio between the chance to succeed in the materialization of the interest and the failure also gives us the degree of risk that the actor must take into account when making the decision to be or not to be present in the respective geopolitical field. Multivectoral analysis of predictable and uncertain “driving forces” leads to the ranking of factors that can significantly change the physiognomy of geopolitical rivalries. The construction of these scenarios was based on the prediction of possible trends of geopolitical evolutions in a space, which may result in materialization in “multiple” futures. These predictions give the number of scenarios that can be constructed to “draw” the closest to the variant reality and, at the same time, the removal of the variants generating risk and conflict.

Keywords: Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Jordan, geopolitics, strategy, geopolitical system