This matters because the first ten days of 2026 did not merely add “more disorder” to the Barometer’s story. They compressed three governance shocks into a single repair interval: a coercive sovereignty rupture in the Western Hemisphere (Venezuela), a deliberate institutional de‑scaffolding move by the United States (withdrawal from a large portfolio of international bodies), and an alliance‑credibility stress test at the core of the transatlantic system (Greenland). Together, these events do not contradict the Barometer. They reveal what its trendline cannot yet register: a transition from institution‑centred multilateralism toward conditional, leverage‑based cooperation executed through narrower, faster, and more controllable rails.

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