As the strategic environment of both the Indo-Pacific and Eurasia gets unstable, the logic of defense cooperation among allies is changing. The probability of a major crisis in the Taiwan Strait, North Korea’s growing nuclear-tipped missile capabilities, and Russia’s possible invasion of another European country by 2029—as pointed out by the German foreign minister—are all pointing to the same conclusion: the US and its allies are entering into an era of simultaneous, multi-theater risk. Under such circumstances, alliance credibility not only depends on political coordination, but on whether partners can jointly create actual defense capabilities.

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