*Author: AL-NASSERY Mohammed
*M.A. (Crisis Management), FSA–UNAP

Keywords: Middle East, Geopolitical Transformations, New Regional Order, Regional Power Dynamics, State Restructuring

Abstract

This article investigates the major geopolitical transformations that have reshaped the Middle East throughout the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, emphasizing the structural shifts that reconfigured borders, power centers, and regional dynamics. The study traces the region’s trajectory from the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire and the rise of Arab nationalism to the formation of nationalist republics and the enduring stability of Arab monarchies. It further examines the Cold War era and the post-1991 structural crises that afflicted several Arab states, exposing deep institutional vulnerabilities. The article analyzes the significant changes triggered by the U.S.-led wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the collapse of state institutions across multiple countries, and the subsequent emergence of Iranian, Turkish, and Israeli regional influence projects. Particular attention is given to the rising roles of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, whose developmental models have reshaped regional pathways. The article argues that the Middle East is transitioning toward a new regional order driven by economic integration, shifting balances of power, and the decline of unsustainable expansionist projects. It concludes that the region’s long-term trajectory will depend on the ability of states to construct modern developmental models and manage their regional and international interactions effectively, positioning the present moment as a decisive historical juncture for the future of the Middle East.

Introduction

Over the past two centuries, the Middle East has experienced profound geopolitical transformations that redefined political borders, power structures, and social identities, and established new patterns of regional and international interaction. These transformations were not solely political in origin but emerged from a complex interplay of imperial collapse, the rise of nationalism, shifting global power dynamics, and modern military interventions, alongside various expanding regional influence projects. These developments can be understood through two major phases.

Phase One | Geopolitical Transformations in the Twentieth Century

The twentieth century constituted the foundational period of the modern Middle Eastern regional order. It witnessed the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire, the rise of nationalist ideologies, and the crystallization of modern governance structures. Prior to World War I, the Arab provinces were part of the Ottoman system; however, the weakening of state capacity and intensifying tensions between the central authority and Arab populations spurred local uprisings supported by Britain. Following the Ottoman defeat in 1916, a vast geopolitical vacuum emerged in a resource-rich yet institutionally fragile region, enabling Britain and France to redraw the regional map according to the Sykes–Picot Agreement. This transition—from an Ottoman authority grounded in Islamic legitimacy to Western dominance—opened the way for a sweeping cultural shift in which Western models gradually replaced Ottoman legacies. European nationalist ideas, particularly French and Turkish, played a critical role in shaping a new Arab national consciousness that expanded from intellectual elites to the wider public through journalism and liberation movements. Armed resistance against foreign rule soon intensified, driven by nationalist and religious motivations, culminating in demands for independence and the establishment of Arab monarchies in Jordan and Iraq with British backing. The declaration of the State of Israel in 1948 marked a defining turning point that generated new political and social dynamics. It heightened nationalist mobilization and contributed to a wave of military coups in Egypt, Iraq, Syria, and Libya, led by young officers inspired by nationalist discourse and committed to dismantling Israel and establishing a Palestinian state. This period saw the emergence of nationalist republics inspired partly by nineteenth-century European experiences. Yet these republics soon struggled due to internal conflicts and persistent regional tensions. In contrast, Arab monarchies—including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Morocco, and the Gulf states—evolved within governance systems that aligned more closely with the social and cultural fabric of their societies. These monarchies maintained political stability while many republics experienced repeated political and economic crises. During the Cold War, the Middle East became a strategic battleground between the United States and the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union supported nationalist and leftist movements, while the United States supported Arab monarchies and the Afghan Mujahideen against the Soviet invasion in 1979. This fragile balance collapsed rapidly after the Soviet Union’s dissolution in 1991, leaving Arab republics without their primary international ally and exposing deep structural crises, particularly in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Yemen. Economic collapse, deteriorating social services, and mounting insecurity paved the way for Gulf monarchies to emerge as stable hubs for development and skilled migration.

Phase Two | Geopolitical Transformations in the Twenty-First Century

With the close of the twentieth century and the onset of the twenty-first, the Middle East entered a new geopolitical phase characterized by an international power vacuum and the rise of regional projects competing for influence amid the structural deterioration of several Arab republics. This phase began with the U.S.-led war on terrorism in Afghanistan in 2001 and the Iraq War in 2003. The collapse of the Iraqi regime produced deep, far-reaching transformations extending to Syria, Yemen, and Libya, where state institutions disintegrated and various local and regional actors moved to fill the resulting vacuum. After 2003, Iraq became a central arena for competing influence projects. Iran leveraged the collapse of the Iraqi state to build an extensive network of local proxies, establishing armed groups and political entities aligned with its regional agenda. Although Tehran achieved short-term expansion, this trajectory proved unsustainable. Iran’s reliance on militarized proxies generated localized resistance, heightened regional apprehension, and imposed growing financial and security burdens consistent with the structural exhaustion typical of geopolitical overextension. Over time, Iran’s ability to manage its proxies became strained, and clear signs of strategic contraction emerged. These pressures intensified following the October 7, 2023 attacks, which exposed systemic vulnerabilities in Iran’s internal structure and may amplify secessionist demands by marginalized minorities, including Arabs and Kurds. Turkey, meanwhile, recalibrated its foreign policy after recognizing that its bid for EU membership had stalled indefinitely. As Iranian influence expanded and several Arab states faced instability, Ankara embraced a “Neo-Ottoman” vision grounded in the historical strategic depth of the Ottoman Empire. Turkey deployed a wide range of tools—from supporting the Muslim Brotherhood to strengthening political and economic influence across the Arab world. Despite the retreat of political Islam, Turkey remains capable of cultivating significant partnerships with Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco. Israel has pursued a strategy aimed at securing its strategic environment and expanding its geopolitical reach through the Abraham Accords—a political-security framework that integrates deterrence with regional alliances. This approach aims to ensure long-term Israeli security while broadening the country’s regional space through direct ties with stable actors. The United States, historically the most influential global power in the Middle East, redefined its role following costly military engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan. Washington is less inclined to deploy large-scale ground forces and instead relies on regional partnerships, soft power, and reallocating strategic resources toward other global priorities. This shift aligns with realist theoretical perspectives emphasizing balance-of-power dynamics, especially as modern warfare increasingly relies on advanced technologies. Within this evolving geopolitical landscape, the traditional Arab republics have declined to their lowest levels of regional influence—Egypt being the notable exception, undergoing state reconstruction under the “New Republic” framework. In contrast, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and the broader Gulf Cooperation Council have emerged as influential rising powers with expanding regional and international roles. Over the last decade, Saudi Arabia has undergone substantial transformation through Vision 2030, transitioning from a rent-based economy to a diversified developmental model driven by innovation, technology, and human capital. This transformation enabled Riyadh to more effectively leverage its strategic assets—including geographic position, religious status, internal stability, and economic capacity—positioning the Kingdom as a pivotal actor in regional and international affairs. (Read the following article : Mohammed AL-NASSERY, Rolul Regatului Arabiei Saudite în stabilizarea Orientului Mijlociu, GeoPlotica magazine, Edition 102, 2024/1, Page 244). Similarly, the United Arab Emirates has developed into a modern, globally integrated state and a major hub for finance, business, technology, and media. Qatar, leveraging its natural gas wealth, has enhanced its political, economic, and media influence, securing a significant regional and international presence. Collectively, these emerging experiences signal the foundations of a new regional order built on shared economic interests, regional integration, and an overarching drive toward stability. This trajectory may facilitate a potential Saudi–Israeli peace agreement—conditional on recognizing Palestinian political and human rights—a development that could usher in a new historical chapter for the region.

Conclusion

The Middle East has experienced a series of transformative geopolitical milestones that reshaped its territorial configurations and centers of power—from the collapse of empires and the ascent of the nation-state, to regional conflicts and the structural crises that afflicted several Arab republics, and finally to the rise of modern Arab models that succeeded in insulating their societies from the upheavals affecting traditional nationalist states. With the ascent of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar as advanced Arab power centers, the contraction of the Iranian project, and the evolving nature of American, Israeli, and Turkish influence, the region is moving toward a new order grounded in shifting balances and shared strategic interests. In the coming years, the Middle East may undergo significant transformations in its geopolitical architecture. A potential reconfiguration of Iran’s internal geopolitical landscape—particularly if autonomy demands among Arabs and Kurds intensify—could reshape regional power dynamics. Likewise, the success of emerging Arab developmental models may catalyze the formation of a broader regional project centered on partnership, development, and stability. Saudi Arabia is expected to play a central role in this trajectory, given its economic, religious, and strategic weight, combined with the profound internal reforms underway under Vision 2030. Ultimately, the future of the Middle East—with all its contradictions, conflicts, and opportunities—will be shaped by the ability of states to construct modern developmental models and effectively manage their regional and international interactions. This positions the present moment as a decisive historical juncture that will influence the region’s trajectory for decades to come.