European shipping has operated under a convenient illusion for the last few decades. They have gotten used to an environment in which geopolitics mattered, but rarely enough to affect or redraw trade routes. Geopolitics was also not seen as a factor in rewriting balance sheets overnight. At the same time, shipping came to accept that war was something navies handled, lawyers managed sanctions, and insurers priced in security risks at the margins. Developments last week, however, should not only have woken shipowners up but also made clear that this easy or stable era is over. The warning is now on the table, supported by headlines.

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