The European Union has just given itself a new waypoint on the road to climate neutrality: a 90 percent net reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, to be written into the European Climate Law. On paper, it looks like a triumph of continuity. Despite wars, trade conflicts and political fatigue, Europe claims it will stay the course.
But numbers alone do not make strategy. The 2040 framework has been designed largely as if two things were still true: that the world is broadly on track for 1.5°C, and that globalisation provides a favourable backdrop for European law-making. Neither of these assumptions stands up to reality.