China’s use of rare earths as a geopolitical instrument did not emerge overnight. The most frequently cited precedent dates back to 2010, when Beijing suspended rare earth exports to Japan following a dispute over Japan’s detention of a Chinese fishing trawler captain. Although short-lived and informal, the episode revealed the coercive potential inherent in China’s dominance of global rare earth supply chains.
In the past decade, both the Biden and Trump administrations imposed tariffs and export restrictions on critical technologies, targeting China. From Beijing’s perspective, these measures were not temporary trade or technology disputes but rather manifestations of deep-seated structural tensions between a rising power and a dominant one. Rare earths – widely perceived as a trump card – were therefore increasingly incorporated into China’s policy menu of counteraction.