In 2026, US–PRC rivalry drives the political and strategic dynamics of the Asia-Pacific and determines regional security priorities and economic governance. Geography remains central: countries that control major SLOCs and maritime choke points (Malacca, Luzon, and Taiwan) supervise trade flows connecting OPEC countries to East Asia economies. China, Japan, and the United States compete in the South China Sea for oil and natural gas fields, and this competition fuels territorial disputes and militarisation in the region.
Southeast Asia, rich in rare earths such as nickel, attracts Chinese and Western foreign direct investment aimed at controlling the full extraction and refining chain. The Thailand-Cambodia conflict threatens China’s regional interests and strengthens US influence. Meanwhile, Taiwan maintains its role as a critical industrial hub, and North Korea remains a potential hotspot because of Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programme.