Military history offers a clear warning about the logistical challenges of conducting large-scale offensive operations in Eastern Europe during the winter, a lesson learned repeatedly at great cost. Today, Russia appears poised to repeat this mistake, having ordered a troop surge in Ukraine as part of a major winter offensive. Meanwhile, Ukraine has deliberately targeted Russian logistics and supply lines, further complicating Moscow’s ability to sustain its large offensive operation. While this Russian troop surge may yield some short-term gains, without adequate resupply those gains will be costly and unlikely to be held over time.

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