The Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 remains the most dangerous moment of the Cold War period. It is not because war was inevitable, but because armed conflict was avoided thanks to extraordinary restraint, improvisation, and political courage. For thirteen days, both the United States and the Soviet Union were faced with the reality that an unintended nuclear conflagration would occur once strategic rivalry was coupled with compressed decision-making timetables and forward-deployed military forces. After more than sixty years, the Taiwan Strait increasingly reflects a similar structured risk. Although the historical, ideological, and regional context is different, the logic of escalation that regulated the Cuban Missile Crisis offers invaluable lessons in managing a potential US–China military collision over Taiwan.

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