Georgiana Constantin-Parke, Phd

Author’s short biography:

Georgiana is an Assistant Professor of Political Science for Liberty University Helms School of Government’s Online Programs in the US. She is a Law School graduate and has a Master’s degree in International and European Law and a Ph.D. in Political Science.

Georgiana has been a speaker for, among others, the Austrian Economics Center’s Free Market Road Show on several occasions. Her work has appeared in various academic as well as journalistic publications. Georgiana’s research interests range from culture, religion, language, and Austrian Economics to bioethics and the future of AI.

Abstract

There can be no talk of Romania’s status among the states of the world or its future investment in security until its own reality has a better forecast for the next century. With one of the fastest shrinking populations in the EU, Romania has a choice to make. It can either start working on family friendly public policies or count down the days to its own inevitable deterioration. The biggest threat to the state right now is not any war abroad or great power trying to take advantage of its strategic position, but its own government’s inability to grasp the reality of its diminishing population and failure to retain even the immigrant workforce.¹

This article investigates the crucial issue of Romania’s declining population, which, until it is redressed, turns any debates about the state’s place in the global strategic architecture into secondary concerns.

Keywords: demographic decline, Romania, family, future, global strategic architecture

Romania: Between Great Powers and Great Problems

Romania’s leanings and actions can influence East-West relations as much as its own destiny. It is an important part of the global strategic architecture, even though it has not always been in charge of its own fate.

In terms of the state’s security, several matters are of immediate priority.

Firstly, the war on Romania’s border between Russia and Ukraine is a grave issue, especially since the Black Sea region has shifted, with the annexation of Crimea, to a space mostly dominated by Russia’s looming interests. Recent advances in peace talks are encouraging, but not enough to discount the risk.²

Secondly, energy security and transition to electrification is another concern, as well as infrastructure weakness and defense modernization challenges amid budget limitations. As well, cybersecurity threats are ever present.

On the economics side, Romania needs to continue to be competitive, but it requires a serious boost in innovation in order to keep its EU market relevance.

Other key concerns have to do with strategically balancing EU, NATO and regional interest and demands.

However, the central point that we will focus on here is likely the most imminent threat of all, demographic decline and workforce migration amid government attempts to tax and burden its citizenry virtually out of existence. Given the overall situation of the country as well as global population trends, these actions of the state are menacingly oblivious at best and malicious at worst.

The key issue: Romania’s shrinking population

Romania has one of the EU’s fastest shrinking populations³. This is a risk to the country’s future.

As Całus notes:

“Between the beginning of its political and economic transition and 2021, the country lost as much as 17% of its population. During this period, Romania’s population decreased by an average of 130,000 people per year – the equivalent of a medium-sized Romanian city. This trend has been driven primarily by mass emigration, mainly for economic reasons, as well as a negative natural population growth rate, with deaths now outnumbering births by approximately two-thirds. Although immigration from outside Europe has been increasing, it remains marginal, temporary, and insufficient to reverse the country’s negative demographic trajectory. Despite a brief halt in population decline during 2022–2023, due to a positive balance of return migration, the downward trend is expected to continue. Over the next 25 years, Romania’s population could decline from 19 million to approximately 16 million.”⁴

Unfortunately, the lack of vision or basic foresight shown in the Romanian state’s actions begs serious questions with regard to its awareness of or interest in the situation.

Instead of flooding the country with family friendly policies, or at least common-sense tax relief such as the one Poland recently brought forth⁵, Romania is decreasing the amount of maternal leave women get and paying them less⁶ during that time as well.

Certainly, parental leave costs money. And it is true that some might be out of work for a long time while dealing with the raising of children, while companies and the state are mandated to pay them during this period. And yet, given the current de-population crisis, is it not worth looking into alternatives such as, perhaps, a transition after the first year or six months of paid leave to part time or remote work for those jobs that can allow for that? Or perhaps looking into pregnancy insurance or savings accounts for that vulnerable period? There are solutions out there for those ready to embrace them, ones that cost both the state and the employer less money. However, as it is not the objective of the present article to delve into such analyses, we will only briefly touch on their potential, and, hopefully, write another, solution-based examination soon.

In short, answers to these problems always start with pro-family policies that give the primary caretakers leave to be there for their children in the first years of their lives⁷. The need⁸ for this is multifaceted, from biology⁹ (the mother and child’s need to be close to one another in order to form a solid attachment that instills emotional stability¹⁰ in the child and mother), to economic and social (as emotionally stable adults help a country prosper).

Komisar, for instance, notes:

“Age 0-3 is a critical period of brain development where children need attachment security as a foundation for future mental health. Mothers serve a unique biological function in this period. Through their physical and emotional presence, they regulate children’s emotions from moment to moment by soothing them when they are in distress, buffering them from stress that is toxic to a young child’s brain, and providing them with a sense of safety and security in the world. Only after three years of age can a child internalize a feeling of security that helps them cope with stress in the future.”¹¹

The emotional stability of the family unit needs to be supported, as well as its financial wellbeing. This is why alleviating the tax burdens on families with two or more children, as Poland¹² recently chose to do, will no doubt be a concrete incentive for people to have more children.

Only, with Romania’s population emigrating, aging, shrinking, while its government acts against the domestic unit, what future can the state possibly have? With fertility rates still dropping¹³, how can the country be expected to be stable into the next century?

If the current downward trend keeps, from a global strategic architecture perspective, military capacity will suffer and the risk of over reliance on foreign military alliances will increase. Evidently, any country with limited power to protect itself is at imminent risk. And the tensions among alliance partners because of the lack of balance in responsibilities increases instability in the nation and the international community as a whole.

Economically, risks emerge, such as slower GDP growth, lack of entrepreneurship and innovation, and higher risk of public debt.

Socially, generational divides, healthcare system burdens, shifting of societal priorities, along with a shirking workforce and tax base add to the perils. And a risk of a cultural crisis spurred on by the lack of people who can keep alive valuable cultural realities is nothing short of tragic.

Policies that support the family are vital. There is a comparative advantage that nations with strong pro-family policies, such as those of Scandinavia, have. There is also innovation potential provided by sustained parental leave thanks to adequate early child development. Moreover, economic competitiveness thrives with a strong workforce and proper access to the market. Even soft power appears to be an advantage that nations with solid pro family policies gain on an international level.

As such, Romania’s backslide on maternal leave and its detachment from the reality of its shrinking population problem is concerning. Research shows, as Komisar observes, that it is vital for parents to be there for their children, especially in the early years: “The least healthy option for children is an institutional day care, which, according to research¹⁴, elevates stress hormone levels, and leads to aggression, behavioral problems, and anxiety in children when they get to school age.”¹⁵

Still, it does not seem to be an easy fix for post-communist Romania, as some generational sufferings linger still. Całus makes an interesting observation in this regard:

“One key factor limiting public and political engagement with policies relating to fertility is the enduring societal trauma associated with the so-called Decree 770. Issued in 1966 at the behest of Nicolae Ceaușescu, the decree was intended to trigger a sharp increase in the country’s population. It severely restricted access to contraception and almost entirely prohibited abortion. It also introduced mandatory, routine checks in workplaces to monitor whether female employees were pregnant. The legacy of this policy – including abandoned children and the widespread deaths of women who underwent illegal abortions – has left a profound imprint on the Romanian collective memory. As a result, there is considerable societal resistance to any perceived state interference in reproductive matters.”¹⁶

This makes sense from a communal memory perspective. However, one would assume that if free will is preserved, the government kept out of individual choice, and incentives and support simply put into place, there is a good chance of success without hitting on the lingering collective trauma.

Some talk of population replacement through immigration as a solution, which, with proper integration, might lead to perpetuation of the culture.

Unfortunately, this cannot cure the underlying issues, but only alleviate some of the symptoms, given the right circumstances.

Why Immigration Is Not A Panacea

Population replacement from immigration can certainly help the workforce, certain industries, or some immediate economic needs.

However, it cannot offset the effects of mass immigration or solve problems such as fertility rate decline and aging population.

How many immigrants will settle in Romania permanently, especially when there are better horizons ahead in Western Europe? How likely is it that immigrants will bring their families over in such a lackluster environment? How many of them will be having children at high rates in Romania, when the state does so little to support domestic matters? Why would they do any of these things, when the Western countries are better equipped to take care of families?

In other words, one can only observe that the same reasons driving native Romanians out of their country will also drive immigrants out at a certain point. So, until the system is fixed, nothing is fixed.

Another matter is that emigration is still, at this moment, outpacing immigration.¹⁷ If young people do not return to the country, the workforce and fertility will continue to suffer.

So, without permanent integration, workforce immigration won’t even solve immediate problems because of the constant turnover, social instability and discouraging of policies to train the domestic workforce.

Without healthy policies in place for long term immigrant integration, attracting emigrants back to the country and/or (at least) keeping the native Romanians home, the stability of the state into the next century is not guaranteed, let alone its strong status in the global community of states.

The Current Situation: Is There Hope?

In a world of power, survival and anarchy at the international level, it is important for states to be strong. But, with rising life expectancy, declining global fertility rates (which often go hand in hand with rising standards of living and education levels), and in some places, lack of family support structures, unique issues arise, especially given that the new population replacement rate has gone from 2.1 children per woman to 2.7¹⁸ worldwide.

Looking at history we can see there have always been key factors that have made states not only strong among their peers, but also good environments for a prospering citizenry. Among those factors have been economic and individual freedom, strong militaries, good diplomacy, a tradition of debate and representation at a state level, and a well-educated populace. All this is true to this day.

However, among rising living standards and comfort, we are confronted with increasing levels of mental illness ¹⁹ and a desperate search for meaning²⁰ in our global young populace. Despite increasing standards of living, something seems off. And it might come as no surprise to many that most issues start at the smallest social unit.

Therefore, a key piece in our current global strategic architecture puzzle must be the one at the very cellular level of the state, the family. This is the environment from which all social interaction²¹ and overall individual (and therefore state) health stems. Consequently, it is the source from which international relations spring. No doubt a mentally healthy populace is a good indication of survivability for the people of that state, for prosperity, for international impact.

Even so, given its present actions, and despite its political parties’ constant talk²² of fixing the demographic decline issue, the Romanian state seems blind to this and is moving in policy directions which will further harm its people.

Yet, hope lingers still. As long as these issues are faced soon, even the slightest increase in fertility rates and/or immigration retention or bringing home native Romanians, the unstable future of the country can be reversed. Just as a minute correction to the trajectory of an object in space can produce profound changes over time, even a small positive inflection in Romania’s demographic trend could redirect the country toward a more secure future.

In order for this to happen, however, Romania’s governing powers need to open their eyes to the surrounding reality and politicians need to stop acting like immortal kings, unless they want to leave their descendants a legacy of ashes where there once stood a state.

Conclusion

Ultimately, there can be no talk of a state’s international security or power without hope for its stability throughout the next century. Otherwise, what is even being discussed? The future status of a state that is heading for a population catastrophe is evident, internal chaos, extreme vulnerability to great powers’ interests, failure.

So, unless the Romanian political environment acts against the dangers it is currently aggravating, any discussion about the future of Romania needs to start with a brainstorming session to solve its population crisis and the lack of support for young families.

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