This report assesses the recent escalation of hostilities between Afghanistan and Pakistan, marked by deadly border clashes and alleged Pakistani air strikes near Kabul. It examines the causes, implications, and regional consequences of these confrontations.
This analysis highlights three major observations: Islamabad-Kabul’s rapid deteriorating of their relations, the increasing possibility of terrorist groups, including ISKP and TTP, to take advantage of the instability, and the growing danger to regional infrastructure and foreign strategic interests, specifically China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
These events, viewed together, determine a trend toward greater instability across the region and a resurgence of great-power rivalry in South and Central Asia.