A new RAND report tackles this question, exploring eight scenarios that illustrate the potentially world-changing impacts of AGI. For example, a scenario called “Cold War 2” considers how decentralized AGI development could empower U.S. rivals, especially China. Another scenario, “The New ‘90s,” discusses how centralized AGI development might empower the United States, with other actors trailing behind. And in “The Corked Bottle,” the world halts AGI development by multiple actors in response to a large-scale AI malfunction.