Delfina ERTANOWSKA^

“Political sabotage is most effective when to real problems and emotions – especially where real extremist groups are involved – are accompanied by logistical support from Russia”

Donald Tusk¹

Abstract. The article discusses geopolitical strategies and risks for the near future chosen by the US, the EU and Russia. The topics covered in this issue include the unpredictability of American foreign policy, Russia’s hybrid warfare which is overshadowed by Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine, and the EU’s need to change course and adapt to changing geopolitical conditions.

Key words: hybrid warfare, political strategy, foreign policy, leadership

The world is constantly changing, and this is nothing new, technologies, lifestyle, access to knowledge, but from the mindset point of view it is no longer so obvious. It is similar with politics and international relations which has influence to geopolitical and strategic importance. The tools used to conduct political, diplomatic and hybrid activities are changing, but their essence does not change.

Recent years have been quite a challenge for politics, diplomacy and international relations between the USA, EU and Russia. The Covid-19 pandemic, the economic crisis caused by the global lockdown, and Russia’s full-scale attack on Ukraine are somewhat reminiscent of the years 1914-1920.

The changing conditions require building new strategies that must be flexible in dynamically changing times. Strategies must take into account risk factors such as the economy and the economic crisis. S&P Global define it: Geopolitical risks have the potential to impact the global economic outlook, influencing growth, inflation, financial markets, and supply chains². Military conflicts fuel instability, undermining energy and food security. Wars and the Covid-19 pandemic have exposed weaknesses in global supply chains, which have translated into the growth of regionalism and regional and national nationalisms. AI, green energy, cryptos brings new conflicts and settle for all democratic hegemony of U.S. These factors bring new technology, new solutions; however, they will disrupt the traditional world order, introduce uncertainty about power, the use of these technologies and the intentions of those managing them, especially when it comes to AI and Cryptos. Not only classical politicians, monarchs and clergy will have a real influence on the creation of politics, international and corporate relations, but also technology creators and their owners. However, several elements well known from history are returning, such as great-power diplomacy – conducting foreign policy and international relations from a position of strength. In particular, the US, China, India and Russia, as well as Germany, France, Turkey, Brazil, Iran and, in some cases, Israel.

U.S. – UNPREDICTABILITY

The recent elections in the USA are turning international relations and treaties upside down, or if not, at least introducing uncontrolled chaos into them. The unpredictability of the Trump cabinet is one of the key strategies based on chaos and lack of a clear strategy. It poses both a challenge and a risk to the geopolitical puzzle in Europe, especially in the face of the war in Ukraine, and to the transatlantic alliance itself, which is facing the specter of a conflict on NATO’s eastern flank. Donald Trump’s final words on the possible US exit from the alliance³, made a huge impact on the international stage. On the one hand, the blackmail of less wealthy members about their possible expulsion from the alliance or lack of reaction and assistance in the event of a conflict because they spend less than 2% of GDP on defense, on the other hand, the blackmail that it is possible for America to leave NATO is an example of pursuing an immature policy, but it also puts the United States in the light of an immature, irresponsible strategic partner. Europe must become immune to these blackmails, not react rashly and give in to every statement by representatives of the Trump cabinet. Because the threats are real, most of these actions do not result in real action, but are just a political marketing ploy. However, Europe needs to build its strength and resilience because many negotiations, conversations and situations in the near future will be of a “take it or leave it” nature.

RUSSIA – HYBRID WARFARE IN THE SHADOW OF CONVENTIONAL WAR

Russia’s strategy for the coming years is to conduct military conflicts, which has not changed significantly since the fall of the USSR, because Russia has been militarily destabilizing Chechnya, Moldova, Transnistria, Karabakh, the Caucasus, and Ukraine for over 30 years. However, in the shadow of military aggression, Russia is waging hybrid warfare. These actions have been ongoing for over last 15 years.

Hybrid warfare includes economic warfare not only in its traditional sense but also in the context of disinformation, intimidation, inciting protests and internal conflicts, and building a fifth column in selected social groups in Europe through sowing economic fear. Often using non-violent resistance tools and strategy. Troll farms, fake news, deep-fakes, falsified history, hate speech – cyber, media and visual narrative of Russian propaganda.

The propaganda of Soviet (communist) re-sentiment is now carried out differently than in the past; in fact, the classic style of narration that in the Soviet Union / the Eastern Bloc that “it was better, there was work, etc.” is still used today, but only in relation to a small group that still lives with this re-sentiment. Radosław Sikorski states that currently scientists, intellectuals, researchers are making a mistake by believing in an outdated type of narrative that everyone has to love the Soviet Union and communism, today’s propaganda activities do not focus on encouraging people to love Russia, but on destabilizing the West. The goal is to show the chaos that reigns in Western countries, not to gain sympathy for Russia, where much more bad things happen⁴. Following the words of Donald Tusk mentioned at the beginning, Russia provides logistical support for sabotage and diversionary actions. It should be noted that it also very willingly finances all anti-European, anti-freedom events and groups, spends billions on promoting “traditional values”, Russian culture, etc. It finances extreme political groups, “useful idiots”. It is active in social media, and conducts cyberattacks. Quote S&P Global: “Cyberattacks are becoming more frequent and severe, and the human and financial impact of attacks continues to rise in line with the increasing digitization of critical infrastructure. Cyber warfare represents a new frontier in global conflict, involving digital attacks by aimed at disrupting, damaging, or infiltrating another’s critical infrastructure”⁵.

EUROPE – THE HETEROGENEITY OF EUROPEAN THOUGHT

The time has come for the European Union, a time when the EU must show strength, determination and cohesion. Russia’s current hybrid warfare, Russian aggression against Ukraine and the unpredictability of US moves impose new obligations on the EU. If Europe wants to survive in its current dimension, economic, community and administrative borders, it must adopt a much tougher and more decisive position; the time of bland, eternally indecisive politicians, afraid to offend anyone, is over. This is shown by the results of parliamentary and presidential elections in the EU and around the world. Extreme, radical groups, sometimes fascist, are gaining an increasingly strong voice and power. The pandemic, the economic crisis, the war in Ukraine, and the conflicts in the Middle East have caused uncertainty and sown fear in European societies, the population is becoming more and more susceptible to all manipulations, disinformation, the hybrid warfare created by Russia, they expect from the politicians to have strong governments that will provide them with a sense of security, as the election results show. Nationalism, already unhealthy at this stage, is growing stronger, fueled and financed with rubles. And they find this false sense of security in slogans promoted by extreme, fundamentalist nationalist and religious groups. Radosław Sikorski (Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs) states that for authoritarian states – the EU is a threat, because the stability and prosperity it gives to its citizens are something charming and worth imitating all over the world, which is the object of envy and the target of both left-wing and right-wing extremists, he also states that the prosperity of the EU is in the crosshairs of the actions of the Russian authorities. Radicalization and division is the strategy that Russia has chosen for Europe, a strategy that has been implemented for over 15 years, and which will spread with the silence approval of the United States, because they no longer pay attention to Europe, and it is absorbed only in its own interests. Europe must oppose this, otherwise decades of peace, international cooperation and unity will be lost. However, there are Trojan horses inside the EU, such as Hungarian politicians led by Victor Orban, who uses methods taken from Soviet Russia, lies that distract attention from his actions, and contempt for freedom of speech and work taken straight from Lenin’s ideology. According to Anne Applebaum, one of the leading proponents of the “true national narrative” is the erstwhile liberal Maria Schmidt, who was radicalized by the fear of the years⁶. These people spread disinformation, block and persecute in various ways (fire from work, ban from practicing their profession, etc.) all people who disagree with them. Orwellian thought-crime is contemporary grist to the mill of Russian propaganda in the EU.

References

1. Applebaum, A. (2024). Zmierzch Demokracji. Zwodniczy Powab Autorytaryzmu. Agora Wydawnictwo. Warszawa.

2. Geopolitical Risks of 2024. (2024). S&P Global.
   URL: https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/market-insights/geopolitical-risk

3. PAP. (2024). NATO bez USA? Radosław Sikorski apeluje do prezydenta Andrzeja Dudy. onet.pl.
   URL: https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/nato-bez-usa-radoslaw-sikorski-apeluje-do-prezydenta-andrzeja-dudy/3nffcsn

4. Sikorski, R. (2023). Polska może być lepsza. Znak Horyzont. Kraków.