Jad el KHANNOUSSI

Abstract. Certain moments in human history mark significant global shifts, and the seventh of October last year was undoubtedly one of them. It will likely be remembered as one of the most crucial dates in recent history. The significant and widespread political event, as described by Israeli analysts, will lead to unprecedented changes, including reshaping diplomatic alliances and challenging established power structures. The ramifications of the events on that day will continue to shape the geopolitical landscape for years to come, with implications that are still unfolding. It serves as a stark reminder of how swiftly and profoundly history can be changed. This article aims to explore the aftermath of the Gaza conflict and its potential to shift the balance of power in the Middle East and beyond, with implications for global security and stability. The reassessment of positions and strategies by key players will lead to the emergence of new opportunities and challenges that could redefine the geopolitical landscape for generations to come.

Key words: The seventh of October, Gaza, Palestine, Multipolar world

INTRODUCTION

The events of 7 October, or the earthquake, as many Israeli analysts have called it, will undoubtedly be one of the most pivotal moments in recent history. It will be remembered as one of the most significant events to shape the course of humanity, similar to other major turning points such as the end of the caliphate, the fall of the Berlin Wall, or the recent pandemic. This event reignited the Palestinian cause in regional and international agendas, as demonstrated by the widespread demonstrations happening worldwide. It also broke the global stalemate on geostrategy, ethics and ideas that had persisted since the Soviet Union broke up. The Americans attempted to fill the significant political vacuum resulting from the dissolution of the Soviet Union, but their subsequent military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq underscored the constraints of their economic and military capabilities. The US government lacked a clear roadmap for the post-Cold War era, and subsequent events swiftly refuted the claims of the end of history.

Consequently, as time progressed, voices were raised in numerous countries, and even peoples, demanding an end to the Anglo-Saxon system of domination with increasing force. This status quo disregards fundamental human rights and exacerbates significant disparities among nations, while also failing to effectively address the numerous conflicts and challenges endangering global stability.

When observing the world map, three significant crises confront society today. Three dimensions reveal the global uncertainty we currently face. The primary and most perilous of these crises is the ongoing power struggle among the United States, Russia, and China, as these countries seek to establish a new global order or uphold the existing status quo. The second dimension is characterized by the ongoing war in Ukraine, a conflict with no foreseeable resolution until the framework of a new multipolar system is defined. Lastly, the Palestinian question is marked by significant developments that are escalating into a highly concerning state of affairs. Addressing the Palestinian dilemma does not confine us to a specific time or place; we are looking at a conflict whose roots go back decades, encompassing religious, political, geo-strategic, cultural and nationalist links.

The present discussion pertains to a single people, the Palestinian people, geographically speaking, yet linked to more than two billion Muslims (as well as numerous other human beings who aspire to a better world) in many parts of the world, who follow, react, and are moved by every event of this bloody conflict and who participate, at least for now, in the measures that their respective regimes allow them to do. The future involvement of the Palestinian people in the defense of Palestine remains uncertain, and the outcomes are as yet unclear. While the scenario remains uncharted, its inevitability is indisputable. The failure to resolve urgent conflicts in accordance with international law is likely to result in the protracted continuation of the present chaotic global situation. The contemporary world has already endured two major world wars and numerous other conflicts, resulting in millions of casualties, missing persons, illnesses, and disabilities. In the present day and in the foreseeable future, the world appears to be on the brink of witnessing the repetition of these devastating events, which could potentially lead to the disintegration of numerous nations and even the extinction of humanity as we currently understand it.

The present article will approach the subject in question with a view to highlighting the possible global and regional changes and transformations following the events of 7 October, when the Palestinians surprised Israel with a pre-emptive strike, and whose announcement led not only to a state of emergency, but also to the decal-ration of total genocide, in a situation of unprecedented blindness and weakness at all levels. The most compelling evidence for this assertion is the deployment of US aircraft carriers in Palestinian waters, a first since 1948, and the formation of a coalition in a mere twelve hours, an occurrence that has no precedent in human history. This occurrence stands in stark contrast to the historical record, as such a rapid formation of a coalition has never been observed in any previous military conflicts. It is also noteworthy to mention the numerous visits by European leaders to Tel Aviv. However, before a comprehensive analysis can be conducted, it is imperative to address several salient questions. What changes are taking place at the regional and global levels? Furthermore, it is imperative to delve into the historical role of the Holy Land in the broader context of global transformation. A further question to be addressed is whether the contemporary geopolitical situation in the Middle East represents the demise of the region as we have known it since the Sykes-Picot agreements.

This article will attempt to shed light on the possible geopolitical changes that may occur in the post-Gaza era, both in Palestine itself and in the regional and international environment. Before delving into the conflict, however, it is useful to highlight the roots of the Palestinian massacre, a very complex dilemma that has a number of factors and components. Since its first episode, it has not been the exclusive affair of one people, one state or one region, but has become an international affair. Not surprisingly, the Palestinian problem is born out of a global geopolitical struggle. This is a standard rule, because the so-called Holy Land has been and will always be the axis of the great transformations taking place on a global scale. A kind of black hinge, if we go back to Nassim Talib’s theory in his famous work The Black Swan that what happens there always has repercussions. It is therefore not surprising that, throughout history and since the first human settlement (the Canaanite Arabs of Yemen), the region has been coveted by all the empires of the past. So much so that it became a kind of decisive battleground where the parameters of the ancient global system were mapped out.

PALESTINE – THE CENTREPIECE OF THE GREAT TRANSFORMATIONS?

Palestine, the centre of the earth. This geographical location was not only intentional by geography but also confirmed by history. Located in the southwest of the Asian continent, between 32.15 and 35.40 N and 32.15 and 29.30 E, with a territory of 240 km in length, to the north, Palestine shares a 76 km border with Syria, and to the east, it borders Jordan with approximately 360 km, Lebanon, and part of Asia; to the south, it is bordered by the Arabian Peninsula and Egypt¹. This privileged geographical location has made it not only the hub of the Arab world, but also a land bridge connecting trade routes from Asia, the Red Sea and the Arabian Peninsula. These routes stopped in Palestine before heading to Europe, not forgetting that the so-called Holy Land was the end of the road from China and the Indian Peninsula to the Mediterranean. It is therefore a corridor (as the ancient pharaohs called it) linking three continents. In military terms, it can be likened to an aircraft carrier stationed in the Levant, strategically positioned with its sights on three continents, as noted by John Foster Dallas in reference to Syria – both countries being part of what was historically known as Chem’s Land.

Its privileged strategic value, as we have highlighted, as well as its long history, have led Palestine, since the dawn of time, not only to become a meeting point for the cultural elements of the various peoples that have shaped the historical panorama of this world, but also to become a place for the “settling of scores” between the various empires in their attempts to establish their control over the region. The history of this area goes back to the first Arab tribes (Canaanites) who migrated from the south of the Arabian Peninsula – specifically from Yemen – and settled in the mythical city of Ariha around 6000 BC². Among these peoples were the Jebusite Arabs who were the founders of the mythical city of Jerusalem four thousand years before Christ³. The Palestinian territory was therefore not simply an estuary or a port of entry for migrants or invaders, but was always at the forefront, creating its own history and participating decisively in the history not only of the region but of the world.

It is a mistake or an ignorance of history to assume that the question or dilemma of this territory, sacred to the three religions, began after the establishment of the State of Israel. On the contrary, Palestine has always been the scene – or rather, the epicenter – of clashes between the empires of the Old World in their constant struggle to increase their power over the Old World. Proof of this can be found in the decisive battles fought on its sands, which marked crucial moments in subsequent political transformations, including the ongoing Genocide situation in Gaza.

The historic Battle of Gades between the Egyptians and the Hittites (1269 BC)⁴ marked the end of a military confrontation similar to a Cold War, between the two empires vying for control over the Shem region. They even formed an alliance to halt the advance of the Assyrians, whose dominance over Palestine would later become prominent around 1200 BC. The Philistines, a Mediterranean group, invaded the land of Canaan, as it was known then, and established settlements in what is now Gaza. These people were known as the Philistines, from whom the name Palestine originates⁵. Similar to other groups originating from present-day Cyprus, they successfully established control over the region and eventually integrated with the indigenous population. According to Fayez al-Maqdisi, these peoples may have arrived with fierce Syrian warriors, including the Hittites, the Mittani, and the Hurrites, known as the Hyksos to the Egyptians. The Hyksos were pioneers in introducing horses to the Fertile Crescent and Mesopotamia, some of whom eventually ruled Pharaonic Egypt for an extended period⁶.

In approximately 1020 BC, the Israelite tribes came together under Saul’s leadership to protect themselves from neighboring attacks. Following Saul’s death during an expedition to Jebel Gilbaz, David, his successor, took control of the lands east of the Jordan Valley where the Jebusites resided, establishing the kingdom based on Egyptian principles. Solomon, who followed David, advanced the state during a period of economic prosperity. He benefited from political stability and cooperation with neighbors, including a notable agreement with the Phoenician governor Biraun. Solomon also forged relationships with advanced kingdoms in southern Arabia, particularly Yemen.

After his death, the state was weakened by a series of internal conflicts that led to the division of the state into the kingdoms of Judah and Israel. In a similar historical context, the Assyrian invasion in 722 BC, led by King Sargon II, paved the way as he conquered everything in his path until reaching the borders of Egypt. Much of the population of the region was taken to Babylon, and those who remained in the region of Palestine, including the Jews, pledged allegiance to Ninwa, the capital of the Assyrian Empire. Around 586 BC, a new rebellion was attempted in response to an attack by the Chaldeans a decade earlier. The Chaldeans not only took Jerusalem, destroyed the Temple⁷, but also held the city’s king, his family, and some of his people hostage. This led King Nebuchadnezzar II, one of the key kings of the Chaldean dynasty of Babylon, to return and re-conquer the city of Jerusalem.

This stage of history would be the most important, since the entire Talmudic vision of Palestine as the promised land for the Jews is centred on this period, and from there, supposedly, all the historical right they claim to possess over it. It is a vision that nineteenth-century Western Orientalism has promoted throughout the last century, even though history and geography, as we have pointed out, contradict it. Roger Garaudy points this out in a polemical work on the founding myths:

“The biblical narrators present the story of Israel’s origins to us as a continuation of well-defined epochs. All the memories, stories, legends, tales or poems that came to them, transmitted by oral tradition, are inserted into a precise genealogical and chronological table. As suits almost all modern exegetes, this historical scheme is largely fictitious. And he adds that the works of Albrecht Alt and Martin North have demonstrated in previous times, specifically, that the division in successive eras (Patriarchs-slavery in Egypt – Canaan) is artificial”⁸.

The rise of the Persian Empire on the regional stage changed the entire landscape. Once it had established its control over Babylon, it found fertile ground to expand into the eastern region and take over all its territories, including Palestine, which fell in 539 BC. The occupation by the Persians lasted for about two centuries until the Macedonian or Hellenistic Empire, after defeating the Persians in 332 BC, conquered the region of Shem. This conquest led to Palestine coming under the rule of Alexander the Great. After Alexander the Great’s death, the region plunged into chaos, which continued until the Battle of Ipsus in 301 BC. Following this battle, the Hellenistic Empire split into two states, the Ptolemies and the Seleucids, engaging in five consecutive wars to gain control over Palestinian territory⁹.

This period of instability in the Arab region of Chem lasted for a long time, despite the passing of various dynasties such as the Maccabees or the Arab Nabataeans, until a new rising empire, the Roman Empire, took over Palestine. After a period of domination by the Ptolemaic Empire, despite its constant clashes with the Seleucid Empire, the five Syrian wars took place. The fifth and decisive battle of Panion around 198 BC, led by King Antiochus III the Great, resulted in the victory of the Seleucids over the Ptolemies led by Scopas of Aetolia. As a result of this defeat, the Seleucids established their control over Palestine and Syria, paving the way for the expansion of Roman rule in the eastern Mediterranean. In particular, after the Ptolemies sought assistance from the emerging Roman Empire, the Romans achieved victory over the Seleucids in the renowned Battle of Magnesia in 190 BC. This victory marked the effective end of the Seleucid Empire, which then grappled with severe internal challenges to ensure its survival. This acute internal crisis, marked by constant revolts and, above all, by the confrontation between the Seleucid leaders, paved the way for the Romans to establish their control over the region, which would become effective a century later, in the year 63 BC. The ruler Pompey the Great took control of Palestine and initially annexed it to the Roman Empire, governed by Jewish leaders. A few years later, Rome appointed senator Gabinius (55-57 BC), who divided the region into five provinces to maintain stability, facilitate control and, above all, stop any new advance by the Persians. However, instability took over the region, especially between 40 and 37 BC, when it was responded harshly by the Romans, especially after the Jewish revolts, which the emperor Titus brutally repressed, and even destroyed the temple of Jerusalem. Precisely, the last Jewish attempt to rebel again, which occurred between 132 and 135 AD had the same outcome as the previous one. From here, Palestine became governed directly from Rome.

In 395 AD, the Roman Empire was divided into Eastern and Western. The former, with its capital in Constantinople, following the final fall of Rome, left Palestine under its control. The fall of Rome in 476 AD generated a new confrontation between the Persians and the Byzantines. Both wanted to establish their control and hegemony over the ancient world, especially the Eastern Mediterranean, whose apex is in Palestine, which became a space of ‘settling accounts’ between them. After dozens of clashes, the Persians managed to defeat the Byzantines in 614, but seven years later, the Byzantines managed to defeat them. However, the two powers of the moment did not count on a new element, which was already showing its light in the Arabian Peninsula: Islam. Within a short span of time, a group of resourceful Bedouins emerged from the Arabian sands and successfully defeated both the Persians and the Byzantines, overcoming the alliance formed against them. The Muslim forces decisively ended the Persian Empire by defeating the Persian-Byzantine alliance, led by Yazdegerd III and Heraclius, in the renowned battle of al-Qadisiyya in 636. Their victory over the Byzantines at the significant battle of al-Yarmuk in 636 enabled the emerging Muslim Empire to consolidate its dominance over the entire region of Shem, including Palestine. This triumph paved the way for further expansion eastward, reaching as far as China, and westward, spanning across the Mediterranean to the southern regions of France.

It is important to note that prior to the Muslim expansion in the region of Shem, a significant coexistence existed between the local populace and the Christian communities, many of whom were predominantly Arabs. The arrival of Islam not only encouraged the existing coexistence between the people and Christians but also fostered a sense of unity and cooperation among diverse communities in the region¹⁰. A compelling illustration of this unity is exemplified in the pact established by Caliph Omar with the Christian community, where he pledged to safeguard their interests and notably facilitated the return of the Jewish population to the region. Of course, the pact is still valid today. In this regard, Sir William Weinz Gerarld, who maintains the following:

“Nothing like this had ever happened before in the unfortunate history of conquests until the conquest of Jerusalem. And rarely did anything like those generous feelings of Omar towards Jerusalem occur afterwards¹¹”.

Since then, Palestine remained under Muslim rule, first with the Umayyads, who moved the capital to Damascus. Palestine, which was part of the Shem region, acquired a first-rate importance. Once weakness began to take hold of the Umayyad empire, due among many things to political instability, armed revolts, etc., the Abbasids managed to put an end to their mandate, defeating them in the famous battle of Zab in the year 750 and the birth of a new empire: The Abbasid. In this way, Palestine came to be integrated under their flag. During their rule, the Abbasids granted various privileges to European Christian travelers, notably to the caliph Harun al-Rachid, who authorized the entry of Emperor Charlemagne. He also allowed him to restore the churches and facilitate and protect the entry of any pilgrim. And as they say, everything has its end, because the weakness and political instability caused Baghdad to lose its control over a large part of the empire’s territories, especially the eastern region. And in this way, a series of revolts arose, first by the Tulunids and then by the Qarmatians, Fatimids, etc., who managed to impose their control over the region. This led to the creation of utter chaos.

During this period of vulnerability, the region was colonized by Europeans in a series of events known as the Crusades, lasting approximately two centuries. As is known, Europe was going through very difficult times, misery and poverty were sweeping the streets of the old continent and methods were beginning to be sought to transfer all this abroad. In this way, and after covering it with a religious veil, the speech of Pope Urban II in San Clement, a usual rule in most of the conflicts, they launched the attacks to the East, destroying and looting everything they found along the way. All this was possible, due to the enormous weakness and fragmentation that the Muslim world was going through. The crusaders managed to appropriate Palestine among other places. Similarly, the region finds itself in a comparable situation today.

Nevertheless, it is quite common in this Muslim nation that every hundred years a person appears who leads a process of reform aimed at solving all the misfortunes that this nation has suffered. We will mention here the figure of Abu Hamid al-Ghazali, known in the West under the name of Algazel, who led a renewal movement in which, together with his disciples, they tried to spread new ideas, attack negligent scholars, and reawaken the spirit of Jihad among the people. All these actions were successful and led to the emergence of figures such as Imad al-Din Zengi, Nur al-Din Zengi, and Salah Eddine al-Ayoubi, figures who were decisive in expelling the invaders from the Muslim lands.

The Ottoman Empire solidified its rule over the Levant region through strategic alliances and military prowess, shaping the area’s political landscape for approximately five centuries. The defeat of the Ottomans by the Russians in the Battle of Crimea (1768-1774) marked the end of Ottoman dominance in the global system of that era, paving the way for the initial foreign interventions in Muslim territories and reshaping power dynamics in the region. It was at that time that the idea of ​​taking over Palestine, with the aim of controlling the route leading to India, began to take hold in the Old Continent.

This idea, however, was not new but can be traced back to the victory of the Muslims in the Battle of Akka (1291), a decisive battle, since this city was the last bastion of the Crusaders. It was then that the Catholic Church commissioned the historian and Father Marino Sanudo Torsello, a witness to the defeat of the Crusader army against the Mamelukes, to carry out a study aimed at analyzing the possibilities of weakening Palestine. Father Marino Sanudo Torsello’s study proposed a dual strategy for conquering Palestine: weakening and controlling Egypt as a precursor and displacing its inhabitants to introduce a ‘foreign’ population that would serve as a buffer between Syria and Egipto¹².

Napoleon was the first to attempt to settle in the Levant region through his invasion of Egypt. Subsequently, the English, who later aligned with the Americans under the approval of the extinct Soviet Union, played a significant role in the creation of the state of Israel. The English capitalized on the plight of the Jews in Europe to pursue the vision of a Jewish state. This initiative gained momentum, particularly after the reforms of Mohammed Ali, the ruler of Egypt at that time, who extended his influence across the Mediterranean, reaching as far as the coasts of Greece. This event reignited in Europe the fear of a Muslim invasion, drawing parallels to historical events like the year 711 or the Ottoman siege of Vienna. Without the intervention of the Persian Safavid Empire, it is likely that the Ottomans would have extended their influence to the extent of building mosques in London. Considering this and various other historical and strategic factors, it becomes apparent why a robust alliance is in place among Iran, the United States, and Israel. In any event, the first Basel summit signified a significant shift in strategy. Initially scheduled for Munich, this summit was relocated to Basel due to the objections raised by the German Jews. The strategic shift was intended to introduce a more religious dimension, aiming to strengthen the legitimacy of the Jewish State project.

During the colonial imperialist peak, the Campbell-Liberman Congress took place in the United Kingdom between 1905 and 1907. It concluded with the establishment of a ‘foreign body’ in the Arab world to ensure regional stability and to serve as the frontline against any Arab-Islamic revival. At the previously mentioned congress, they were particularly conclusive:

“The Mediterranean is the lung of colonialism, because it is the bridge that unites the West and the East; It is the natural space of the African and Asian continents and the source of civilizations and religions. In this space lives a single people that shares the same language, culture and, above all, religion. Therefore, it is obligatory to always keep them weak, divided, in addition to prohibiting any scientific progress or a union project (…); we must build a Jewish State¹³”

Since then, many events have taken place. The most painful of these was the overthrow of the caliphate in the Arab Muslim region, thanks to the work undertaken by the servants of London (most of the Arab leaders, Ataturk, etc.). We must not forget that, before the creation of Israel, which took effect in 1948, a series of regimes were created for its protection¹⁴, which did nothing but trade in the issue in order to gain legitimacy and, above all, silence the many voices demanding a political opening in the Arab region. Israel pursued similar strategies, making promises and engaging in lengthy negotiations with the Palestinians. Its primary goal was to delay while advancing its state project. Israel understood that the Palestinians were unlikely to support its cause or surrender. In fact, just when it seemed that Israel was almost achieving its goal, the Palestinians struck a new strategic blow: the attack on October 7, 2023. This date may have signaled the beginning of significant changes that are expected to influence not only the Arab world but also the global stage in the next five years or even the next decade. In fact, we are already witnessing its first explosions, and its consequences are being felt at all levels.

THE SEVENTH OF OCTOBER: HEADING TOWARDS A NEW ERA?

Before we address what will happen after the Gaza conflict and determine the scale of the changes that will occur both in the Arab region and in the global system, we would like to highlight four points.

First, throughout recent history, there has been a common belief that major historical turning points are marked by significant events, while minor ones are often disregarded. However, the events of October 7 changed this assumption, since, despite being a small event in terms of space and time, its dimensions will affect global power. Second, despite the presence of numerous strategic research institutes, espionage agencies, and surveillance centers worldwide, not a single entity predicted the events in Gaza. Third, although Ukraine was initially the focal point for great power relations and Europe’s destiny, it has now been overshadowed. Finally, at the regional level, the Palestinian question appeared to be fading away with initiatives like ‘the deal of the century’ and the ‘Arab-Israeli NATO.’ However, the emergence of a new Middle East, led by Israel, and the rapid normalization of relations with Arab countries shattered all economic plans and strategies, including proposals to relocate Palestinians to the Sinai, on October 7^th.

We have now passed the first year of war, and the Palestinian resistance continues to reap strategic victories, both on the ground and at the ethical level, with its treatment of Israeli prisoners and in the media, by managing to put an end to the historical narrative of Zionism, which is probably the greatest success of this operation (they also seized the cyber base 8200, which is the center of highly effective espionage in Africa, Europe, Asia, and the Arab world). In simpler terms, the falsehood they concealed through their extensive control of the media on a global scale has now been revealed. The people of Gaza are subjected to unprecedented barbarity, making it a historically significant and dire situation. Indeed, it is the strategy of any resistance movement to strike at various levels until the enemy feels unable to continue, as demonstrated in historical cases like Vietnam, Iraq, and others. The best proof of what we are saying would be that, throughout the time we have been at war, we have gone through two stages. The first, which can be described as psychological warfare, in which the attempt to demonize the Palestinians during the first days quickly collapsed in the face of Israeli bombings and the falsehood of some narratives, so we should not be surprised that some media recognized their error, at least to maintain a credibility that seems to be practically doomed. In the second stage, faced with the blows in Gaza, a more tactical approach was adopted – the falsification of reality through the media, including discussions of a post-Hamas era. This aimed to create instability among the Palestinians and boost Israeli morale, knowing that Netanyahu’s departure is their only victory. And, of course, both Israel and the United States are negotiating a ceasefire. Along the same lines, we can also mention the issue of the two states and the peace process, which are really nothing more than messages for daily consumption, especially for Washington, where Joe Biden lost all credibility on the eve of the decisive elections last November. If anything will prevail in the future, it will be a multifunctional state where everyone can live together in peace and harmony, and, surely, it will be the most developed country in the region.

We will now address the possible changes, starting with the place where the events take place: Palestine. In this sense, there are three components: Israel, the Palestinian Authority (PLO) that governs the West Bank, and the Palestinian resistance movements led by Hamas and Jihad, among others. Regarding Israel, it is important to highlight that the Israeli government and people faced a significant challenge, akin to a seismic event, disrupting various aspects and leading to notable repercussions.

Initially, the security and intelligence services experienced a significant setback that they may not be able to recover from, as the infiltration had been planned years in advance. Serious gaps have emerged in the Israeli army, despite their advanced equipment, technology, and vast potential. In reality, Israeli soldiers showed weakness by committing acts of looting and sexual assault against defenseless civilians, demonstrating incompetence and moral failings. The myth of the invincible army quickly crumbled because many are aware of how the Israeli army defeated the Arab forces during wartime.

On a moral level, it has suffered a serious defeat, worse than its military defeat, since its image on a global level is that of a genocidal state that massacres children, women, etc.

On a political level, Israeli democracy, which they boast so much about, collapsed in a matter of seconds and was transformed into an authoritarian regime similar to that of its Arab colleagues. Even before the war, Israel was facing a serious internal political crisis. Israeli citizens are now more aware that fanatics are in control of their political destiny, leading the country into chaos.

At the doctrinal level, most citizens of the world did not know much about Zionism. However, after the events of October 7, a new side of Israeli politicians has been revealed. This side has shocked the entire planet with its racism, violence, and belief in being the chosen people with the exclusive right to appropriate everything. Zionism derives its legitimacy from a doctrine with teachings that threaten global peace.

At the popular level, a great rift has opened in the Israeli social fabric, which has increased internal differences to an unprecedented degree. For the first time, there is no unitary vision, except for Netanyahu’s departure, which begins to presage the imminent general disintegration. And finally, politically, the Israeli politician has completely lost his credibility, being accused of all kinds of cruelty. There is no doubt that the government is faced with two questions: voluntary collapse from within or a social revolution to impose other political alternatives. Without forgetting, of course, the serious economic question, despite American and Western aid (even from Arab countries), high military spending, compensation for the dead and wounded, the flight of large companies, agriculture, industrial fabric, tourism, etc. All this means that the question that is gaining ground in the country is: Will Israel survive the eighth decade? What was once a literary topic (“the generation of the end”) now seems to be a national debate, knowing that neither history (the five previous states did not last more than 80 years) nor geography plays in its favor. At the moment, the three components on which Israel was based since its creation are practically crumbling. The first is emigration, since there has been a negative migration balance since 2007. In other words, there are more people leaving the country than entering: before October 7, around twenty thousand people left each year, never to return, and since October 7, around half a million people have left the country. And everyone knows the demographic drain that the country is experiencing. The second is the end of the myth of expansion, or the slogan that they always brandished from the Nile to the Euphrates. And the third and last, the normalization of relations with the Arab countries is going to be very difficult, since any regime, at least in the medium term, will be incapable of attempting a process of this magnitude, knowing the wave of revolts that will shake the region.

The Palestinian Authority faces significant losses in this heated battle for Gaza, evident in various studies and field surveys. All the studies and field surveys confirm this. If it were not for the weapons at their disposal, we would probably be talking about a revolt in Diffa. There are many expectations that a large part of its members will leave the Authority, because – according to them – the only way to end Israeli selfishness is to fight for their rights. The PLO has transformed into the armed wing of Israel, serving as a tool for oppression and espionage under Tel Aviv’s control in exchange for benefits and financial support. Most of the Palestinian resistance fighters are held in Israeli prisons thanks to them.

Hamas and the Palestinian resistance groups emerge victorious in this conflict due to their growing support and recognition as the defenders of Palestinian rights. Today, any Palestinian, or even the majority of Arab citizens, see them as their representatives and defenders. In the event of the war ending abruptly, thousands would likely align with them, leading to a significant boost in their power, particularly after demonstrating autonomy from external influences, despite receiving aid from select countries like Iran and Qatar. In fact, and as much as they try to demonize Hamas as a creation of the State of Israel – as we have heard Borrell say – these words no longer have any echo, at least in the Arab world.

The same can be said of the other Islamic movements. If previously, and especially after the military coup in Egypt, the death of these parties rang out loud, because they were simple proposals led by Arab leaders, without historical foundations or in-depth analysis, the same can be said of Western analyses, mostly influenced by preconceptions rooted in Orientalism. It is true that at the time they did not have the political experience or a roadmap for the serious problems of the region, partly due to the absence of political parties in the region and the crisis that the Arab political landscape is going through will open a new opportunity. And this will be possible if a series of issues are addressed: to form a new generation that is aware of the situation and is capable of undertaking the necessary changes; to create a new message and a more precise slogan to face the challenges and to stop waving the flag of victimhood; to analyze the political chessboard both externally and internally in order to understand in depth the current geopolitical environment. Let us not forget that there is a situation of struggle in the Arab world, similar to other regions, and each of the parties involved has its cards in the deck and will never give up the victories obtained in previous conflicts. It should also not be forgotten that they are the only ones who propose the establishment of a cross-border state, known as the Banna state¹⁵, as Kissinger points out. This proposal represents a significant challenge to the nation-state concept, which has allowed the Anglo-Saxons to maintain their dominance in the Arab region.

We will now turn to the underlying variables of the conflict, which many do not pay attention to because most analyses focus on economic and political aspects, considered to be the great pillars of the contemporary State. The first variable would be the new linguistic discourse that has spread throughout the world. The majority of the population today speaks of justice as an important educational virtue. The war in Gaza has brought morality to the forefront, stirring emotions, awakening hearts, and fostering unprecedented sympathies. For instance, there have been heartbreaking scenes in countries worldwide of women and girls shedding tears for the children who lost their lives¹⁶. The most significant criticisms aimed at Western civilization revolve around issues of double morality, justice, and the treatment of other peoples. For example, criticisms often point to instances of unequal treatment and ethical inconsistencies. This resurgence has reignited debates on the brutalities of colonialism, its wars, and the genocides it perpetuated, bringing these historical injustices back to the forefront of the political arena. Without going too far, let us cite the case of Namibia against Germany. The Gaza war has completely changed the situation and awakened humanity. After a span of two centuries, the South is presenting a profound moral and ethical quandary to the global community for the first time. For instance, the lawsuit filed by South Africa against Israel at the international court of justice serves as a pivotal moment, symbolizing a trial of Anglo-Saxon influence rather than a direct challenge to Tel Aviv, which is perceived as a strategic military outpost in the Arab region.

Today, a large part of civil society and intellectuals in many Western countries, who are growing in numbers, are asking where we are going, fearing that their democracies are increasingly imprisoned. The reality of Gaza has touched the roots of its values, which have governed the world in the last two centuries. Before, while its armies were imposing themselves in other parts of the world, its politicians and a large part of its intellectuals spoke of the Western task of bringing modernity to these peoples, although it is true that then, there were no alternative means of communication as there are today. Therefore, this double language is no longer credible; it has collapsed in just a few hours in Gaza. Who knows if we are even facing the final collapse of invincible neoliberalism, or if other motives against this system are hidden behind the demonstrations in favour of Gaza. The collapse of an empire or a civilization always anticipates a decline in values ​​and an internal destabilization, even if there was enormous scientific and military development. A good example would be the USSR, which seemed destined to populate the world map for centuries.

On a global level, we are likely to witness a new international scenario (multipolar), with the struggle between the great powers intensifying, and with the increasing presence of new actors such as Turkey, India, etc. In addition, it will be difficult for the USA, which has lost much credibility on a global level, to mediate again in international affairs. The concerning aspect is that all the projects planned in the Middle East, including the incense route, the Ben Gurion canal, the gas issue in the eastern Mediterranean, and Gaza with its waters hosting five trillion cubic foot gas wells, appear to be regressing to their initial stages.

In point of fact, the United States has become a strange country, despite being the greatest power that history has ever known. With Trump as its representative, it is the announcement of its end, contrary to its promises regarding the greatness of America. With a merchant mentality that applies the logic of trade, profits and above all the philosophy of utility to achieve its objectives, it is evident that, instead of the peace that it preaches, “earthquakes or, at least, tremors” are expected at a global level and even within the North American country itself. We must not forget that the country is going through a kind of cultural and ethnic civil war that can lead to a serious social confrontation, to violence and confrontation between the different parts of society, to disagreements between Trump and the deep state, etc., which, really, are advances that do not guarantee the social coherence that characterized the North American country in its recent history. Who knows, if these generations are witnessing the final decline of the empire. What is certain for the moment is that Washington will once again position itself in the region, looking for other alternative actors there. Who knows if that country will be Iran, revealing what was previously concealed behind false rallies. Despite numerous differences between the two, their mutual interests have consistently delayed any potential military conflicts. Gaza discovered this Iranian-American interaction that destroyed more than one Arab country (Iraq, Syria, Yemen, etc.)¹⁷. Indeed, the Persian country, a key player in the region, would never have been able to assert control over these countries. It is important to remember that Tehran is utilized as a tool to instill fear in the Gulf countries, ensuring their perpetual reliance on the United States through extensive annual arms sales and the sustainability of the petrodollar system. While many believe it is assisting the Palestinians, the reality is that behind this minimal aid lies a hegemonic project aimed at dominating the region. This project is executed with significant doses of pragmatism and political efficiency, in an attempt to regain legitimacy among Muslim populations following its intervention in Syria. Hence, the escalation of conflict in Syria is probable, notably in the northern regions, as it serves as a focal point where nearly all conflicting projects across the Arab region intersect¹⁸.

Iran will need to confront a new reality, particularly in the region of Shem, Syria, and Lebanon. These two countries have been crucial for Iran in the Arab world and have served as its gateway to an Arab world familiar with Iranian pragmatism. It is true that Tehran has significantly changed the region due to demographic shifts in the past decade, similar to post-2003 Iraq. However, Iran must now reduce its destabilizing activities in the Gulf countries. It is highly likely that Turkey will reassert its role, particularly by bolstering its presence in Syria through agreements with Russia or other parties. This is evident as even the Assad regime has lost credibility, including among its allies.

All this happens while the great absentee is the Arab system, dead for centuries. After the war ends, the region is likely to undergo profound transformations due to escalating social pressures, akin to a volcano on the brink of eruption. As time passes, social pressures will mount, leading to not just one but multiple revolutions. The intricate and deep-rooted problems in the region indicate a bleak outlook, necessitating significant changes. Numerous factors, exacerbated by the aftermath of the Arab Spring, are prominently at play in the region, intensifying the situation further. The region awaits the triggering event, likened to a fuse igniting a fire, that will precipitate the collapse of the majority of existing regimes. Therefore, we must pay attention to what is happening there, especially in countries such as Egypt or Jordan. Now more than ever, the Arab people must seize the moment; failure to do so risks prolonging the region’s detachment from global affairs for yet another century, as witnessed in the past two.

Likewise, the European Union, representing the old continent, faces immersion in an economic crisis. The truth is that the economic collapse affects several countries, including Germany, Italy or France. Some of these countries are even experiencing political tensions that are unusual in recent European history. All of this will call into question the survival of one of the most ambitious projects that humanity has experienced in its modern age, knowing that Trump intends to raise tariffs on American products from 3.5% to 20%. And that will put Europe in a very complex situation.

The course of events, for the moment, benefits Russia and China, probably the two great winners of this American debacle in Gaza. Let us not forget that the greatest strategic victory achieved by these two countries occurred when the Americans were stuck in Iraq and Afghanistan. On the one hand, it meant that Washington moved away from its borders and, on the other, it allowed them to rebuild again and gain time, especially Moscow, which seemed destined for balkanization for a time. However, if, as many analysts and scholars on the subject maintain, both countries are capable – now more than ever – of offering a legitimate option or, better said, a new pole, they will succeed in consolidating an important and alternative role on a global scale, especially after the more than expected victory in Ukraine.

But, to do so, they will have to face several challenges, especially the contradictions that exist between them in the organization of the BRICS, aware that the only agreement that unites them is their rejection of American leadership. What has apparently been created to be an economic alternative to American dominance and which seems to be gaining ground, is not free from disagreements, such as, for example, the question of the expansion of its members and above all, the differences that exist between Russia and China and, China and India, the question of territorial disputes, to which is added the more than certain race between both to reap the greatest advantage in the Arabian peninsula. The growing interest of both countries in the region’s natural resources calls all that into question. We will surely see clashes between the two countries in the future. India is a very pragmatic country, with a clear orientation towards the British Commonwealth and, who knows, perhaps tomorrow New Delhi will play the same role that England played within the European Union, a dagger in the back of the region to keep it under American control.

CONCLUSIONS

In short, we can say that we are at a turning point and at very profound changes that will shape our future. After the events of October 7, nothing will ever be the same again, neither in the Arab region nor in the rest of the world. We are facing enormous challenges: the confrontation between Russia and NATO in Ukraine, China on the verge of a clash with Washington, Africa experiencing very difficult events, and even the West itself seems to be threatened with fragmentation, and of course the Arab world, which seems doomed to further division, but everything will depend on the events that will take place in Syria, a key country on the world and regional map. And above it all is Donald Trump, a businessman who applies his mercantile logic, i.e. he is only interested in profits and the philosophy of utilitarianism. His actions have further undermined the stability of the world and are at odds with the peace he promises.

The big question would be: What factors have led to Gaza being recognized as the architect of all these changes? The answer lies in the legitimacy of their struggle, the struggle of a people from whom everything has been taken, the rivers that flow with the blood of their children, their women and their elderly. This is not a privilege granted to anyone. And it is not unusual for the so-called Holy Land, for it has always been and will continue to be an epicenter of great change on a global scale. Proof of this are the millions of people who take to the streets to demonstrate for a cause which everyone identifies with. In recent weeks, the joy of change has been clearly evident in the international panorama. Africans view this change as a mirror that can reflect their dream of altering their harsh reality and ending economic inequality – a system that pits a rich minority against a poor majority. Additionally, these events pave the way for other movements and ideologies that could offer an alternative to capitalism.

The Palestinian dilemma involves multiple factors: discrimination (they are subjected to dehumanization), racism, contempt. We would even say that it clearly shows the clash between the two visions that aspire to reign in the world: the Darwinist vision, which tries to maintain its control by force and violent means, and the other, more humane vision, which represents the majority of peoples who aspire to a better world. Therefore, we are not dealing with the issues of a specific group or region, but rather with a question that many describe as moral, philosophical, or metaphysical. This raises inquiries about humaneness and the values of the modern world. In conclusion, let us hope that from the tragedies witnessed in Gaza and other parts of the world, the seeds of a society built on compassion and equality will sprout. By fostering a commitment to self-improvement, environmental stewardship, equality, and diversity, we can work towards establishing the peace that has been longed for by generations, uniting traditional beliefs with contemporary challenges.

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