Areturn of Donald Trump to the White House would likely have profound and far-reaching implications for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Guided by his close relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump is likely to adopt an assertive strategy to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which he views as a non-negotiable red line, framing it as a shared commitment to Israel’s security and a determined effort to restore deterrence and pull the region back from the brink of escalating conflict while reviving and expanding the Abraham Accords. However, achieving this vision would require Saudi Arabia’s inclusion as a pivotal partner and the establishment of a Palestinian state as a prerequisite. At first glance, an alliance of Trump, Netanyahu, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) might seem paradoxical as a catalyst for regional stability and meaningful change—given that none are known for championing democratic ideals. Yet, if carefully aligned with the region’s priorities, such a coalition could inadvertently pave the way for transformative progress by addressing entrenched conflicts and power imbalances.
While reluctant to involve the U.S. in another conflict, Trump’s steadfast commitment to Israel’s security could compel significant American military support, given Israel’s limited capability to independently neutralize Iran’s nuclear facilities. This dilemma would require Trump to strike a delicate balance between his aversion to war—pursuing alternatives such as “maximum pressure 2.0” and a “flashy grand bargain”—and the imperative to back a critical ally with a “blank check“, potentially leading to a full-scale war with Iran. Nevertheless, given Iran’s unwavering determination to advance its nuclear program, diplomatic and economic pressures alone are unlikely to succeed, making an eventual military response against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure increasingly inevitable. Yet, such an approach could also serve to contain a regional arms race, forestall the emergence of another rogue nuclear state akin to North Korea, and avoid Obama’s biggest mistake—his unenforced red line in Syria, which was to blame for America’s lost credibility.