Dr. Benyamin Poghosyan
As the US presidential elections approached, pundits and politicians worldwide sought to predict the outcome and explore scenarios for US foreign policy under Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. This was unsurprising: Despite the end of the unipolar world order and significant shifts in the global balance of power, the United States remains the superpower capable of global influence. The South Caucasus was no exception, as pundits debated the potential implications of the election results for the region. The uncertainty ended on November 5, as Donald Trump secured his return to the White House in January 2025.
What might the South Caucasus expect from Trump’s second presidency? To address this, it is crucial to examine the region’s potential role in US foreign policy under his administration. The South Caucasus was notably absent from Trump’s pre-election foreign policy agenda, aside from Trump’s statement on X, where he condemned Harris for doing “nothing as 120,000 Armenian Christians were horrifically persecuted and forcibly displaced in Artsakh” and promised to restore peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Two issues were central to his last campaign — the Russia–Ukraine War and escalating tensions between Iran and Israel — and they could significantly shape future geopolitical dynamics.