Authors : NVARD CHALIKYAN | BENYAMIN POGHOSYAN | VEREJ ISANIANS
Introduction
The South Caucasus is an important Eurasian political and economic hub, as its transport networks have the potential to facilitate travel across the continent. Control over the South Caucasus grants access to the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea basin, serving as a gateway to Central Asia and the Greater Middle East. Given its strategic importance, regional powers such as Russia, Türkiye, and Iran have vied for influence in the South Caucasus for centuries.
In recent years, the demand for alternative transport corridors has surged amid the ongoing Ukraine war, sanctions on Russia, conflicts in the West Asia (Middle East) region, and the resulting difficulties with traditional supply routes such as the Suez Canal. Consequently, the South Caucasus has become increasingly important as a link between Asia, Europe, and Russia.
At the same time, the region has experienced volatility from ethnic conflicts and wars. Russia has historically had the greatest influence among the three regional players. However, after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war—which in 2023 resulted in total Azerbaijani control over the region, forced displacement of the Armenian population,[1] and the subsequent withdrawal of the Russian peacekeepers in the spring-summer of 2024[2]—Russia’s influence and its role as a security provider has declined.[3] This has resulted in a power vacuum, which several regional powers, primarily Türkiye, are striving to fill. The situation has also created favourable conditions for new players outside the region.
For India, there is a unique opportunity to contribute to stability in its extended neighbourhood and to ensure its presence in the strategic communication routes that could be a game-changer in the future. Based on geopolitical considerations, India has prioritised its relations with Armenia, with which it shares interests such as connectivity projects, and common security challenges emanating from the Türkiye-Azerbaijan-Pakistan alliance. It is thus important to analyse the geopolitical rationale behind the emerging India-Armenia relationship.