Like most Arab countries, Egypt was stunned by the conflagration ignited by last October’s Hamas attack inside southern Israel and subsequent Israeli onslaught against Gaza. To Cairo, the war has delivered not just a vast humanitarian crisis, but the potential destruction of the regional order from which Egypt has benefited politically and economically since the signing of the Camp David Accords with Israel in 1978. In particular, the growing possibility of a potential major refugee outflow from Gaza into Egypt, one forced upon the Palestinians by Israel, presents Egypt with an existential threat. With a final settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict now farther away than ever, and prospects for a broader Middle East war growing greater by the day, Cairo has been forced to play a much more prominent diplomatic role, with significantly higher stakes, than it has in many years.
It was not always this hard. For decades Egypt has positioned itself as a diplomatic heavyweight within the Arab world, in large part because of its leadership role in Arab-Israeli peacemaking. It curried favor with the United States by repeatedly using its good offices to effect truces after periodic blowups between Hamas and Israel. Egypt also has maintained an official belief in the logic of a final political settlement between Palestinians and Israelis based on a two-state solution, a hallmark of US Middle East policy since the Bill Clinton presidency. For a long time, this elder statesman role was the political sweet spot for Cairo, winning its government respect and rewards without the heavy lifting and political risks required to actually bring about a final Palestine-Israel settlement. The October 7 attack, and the devastating Israeli response, have changed everything for Cairo.