Patty-Jane Geller Policy Analyst, Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense, Center for National Defense
Source: https://www.heritage.org/defense/report/the-nuclear-posture-review-must-account-growing-chinese-nuclear-threat?mkt_tok=ODI0LU1IVC0zMDQAAAGCWe5rK9yEtJPxPyZyIIQ1kHBsvtFs5dq6ADuI17Zw_gzRNdnv1g2fiEFHbBbLM0UVll7pw-G5CPx-gBkokELhpgaTt_jDZ7AlNUjuv-WVZBEuDw
Summary
Officials state the Biden Administration’s Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) will be ready for release soon. Since Biden took office, the threat environment has markedly deteriorated, with the revelations of China’s strategic nuclear breakout—a change not accounted for in the Trump Administration’s 2018 NPR—and Russia’s continued nuclear expansion. A strong NPR will be one that focuses on aligning nuclear policy, posture, and capabilities with the current and future threats facing the United States, not on meeting any political promises. To prepare the United States for a future in which it must deter two nuclear peer competitors, the NPR should, at minimum, continue ongoing modernization efforts and maintain current declaratory policy, while considering any needed changes to U.S. force posture.
Key Takeaways
The Nuclear Posture Review is a vital tool that provides the administration the opportunity to align U.S. policy, capabilities, and posture with current threats.
Since the 2018 NPR, the threat environment has deteriorated substantially, primarily due to China’s and Russia’s expansion of advanced nuclear weapons systems.
The new NPR should focus on modernization efforts and properly aligning nuclear policy and capabilities with current threats, not meeting political promises.