The forthcoming fall and winter will be critical for Ukraine and, therefore, Europe. If Russia can destroy Ukraine’s air defense, the West will need to reconsider its stand on military intervention.
While Ukraine is fighting for its right to exist and paying the price in blood, Europe has long realized that Ukraine is protecting European values and principles. There can be no security without an independent and sovereign Ukraine.
As previously argued, the consequences of a potential Russian victory in Ukraine are devastating for the continent.
Russian forces are presently unable to achieve a decisive breakthrough along the frontline. Despite the lack of military success on land, Russia is, unfortunately, making progress elsewhere. It is, after all, involved in a Hybrid War using both military and non-military means.
The military situation, however, is fluid and might be about to change. The next 6-8 months might prove to be critical.
The impact of the slow and incremental Western defense support has been thoroughly described by many experts during the last 17 months. Four factors, however, will have an increasing impact on the further development of the war.