James Jay Carafano
China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang has been removed from office after disappearing from the public view for a month. He was replaced by his predecessor and the CCP’s chief diplomat Wang Yi.
What’s the bottom line? Qin was likely ousted for a violation of party discipline. A power struggle within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs could also be involved.
What happened? Qin’s dismissal was expected. While the ministry initially said his disappearance was due to a health problem, the secrecy surrounding his status and whereabouts fueled rumors that Qin is under investigation for serious misdeeds. Currently, no official explanation has been given for his removal.
Further information will likely be released in the coming days and months. The next development to watch for will be an announcement that Qin is under investigation for party discipline infractions or illegal activity. While it is possible that the government will simply ascribe his removal to “health problems,” recent precedent would indicate that, if serious party discipline or criminal activity is involved, we will hear about the investigation. It will likely take months, if not longer, for the complete picture to emerge.
So far, the most convincing rumors relate to an affair Qin allegedly had with Chinese new anchor Fu Xiaotian, who also hasn’t reappeared in public or posted on social media since Qin’s disappearance. It is not out of the ordinary for a senior Chinese official to have extra-marital affairs, but this situation is more complicated, because many believe the baby was born in the US, which if true, would disqualify Qin from serving as a senior CCP or PRC official. Beijing has been trying to crack down on CCP officials sending their family members abroad, and for the foreign minister to have a baby in the U.S. (making the child a U.S. citizen) would embarrass the government and be interpreted as an indication that Qin lacks confidence in China’s future. This alone would be grounds for his sacking, even if there aren’t other violations at play.