By: Aymenn al-Tamimi
Nearly a decade ago, as the Islamic State (IS) gained territorial ground in Iraq and Syria and declared a caliphate whose territory spanned the borders of both countries, the group’s propaganda pushed the now familiar slogan of “remaining and expanding.” There was the stated belief that the group’s caliphate would not only endure as a territorial entity but would also gain ground in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere. This vision was reinforced by the group’s declarations of wilayas (“provinces”) elsewhere in Africa and Asia during late 2014 and early 2015: Libya, Algeria, Sinai, Khorasan (Afghanistan), Yemen, Saudi Arabia, the Caucasus and West Africa.
Today, “IS central” in Iraq and Syria has little to show for any concept of territorial control, having lost its last strip of territory in Baghuz in March 2019. As an insurgency, the group is generally holding out but at a low intensity level, and it is frequently losing leading figures in operations conducted by the U.S-led coalition and other actors. Indeed, the group already went through two “caliphs” in 2022 alone.
Insofar as the slogan of “remaining and expanding” has any propaganda value for IS now, it mainly lies in the group’s “expansion” into sub-Saharan Africa in recent years with formal affiliates for the group now operating not only in Nigeria and the surrounding Lake Chad region as the “West Africa province,” but also in the wider Sahel (“Sahel province,” which was previously attached to the West Africa province), Somalia (“Somalia province”), the Democratic Republic of Congo (“Central Africa province”) and Mozambique (“Mozambique province,” which was previously attached to the Central Africa province).