Berlin’s new National Security Strategy provides “guidance in the face of current and foreseeable security challenges.” Should we care? We asked a real expert, Dan Kochis. Here is his assessment.
What’s the bottom line? Some good. Some bad. No surprises. Reflects both the changing realities of European security made real by the war against Ukraine and stubborn adherence to outdated orthodoxies on China, energy, and EU. What friends and allies will be waiting to see is if plans and resourcing (or not resourcing) that lead to real change.
What about NATO? NATO is central to the strategy. Germany pledges “allocate two percent of our GDP, as an average over a multi-year period, to reaching NATO capability goals, initially in part via the newly created special fund for the Bundeswehr.” Including the pledge is very good (but some wiggle room for budget consultations which will take place moving forward. Still a positive development). Helpful and important inclusion of a discussion on “focusing in particular on NATO’s capability targets and on bridging capability gaps quickly.” The strategy also notes “Russia is for now the most significant threat to peace and security in the Euro-Atlantic area.”
What’s not to like? Climate is a dominant theme. Not surprising with the foreign office led by the Greens. But no path for resolving challenge of delivering reliable, abundant, affordable energy in the long term.