James Jay Crafano
Pakistan is being rocked by popular and increasingly violent protests after the Army arrested former Prime Minister Imran Khan. So we asked one of the world’s leading South Asia experts, Jeff Smith, what gives?
What’s the bottom line? Political turmoil and protests are quite common in Pakistan but what makes the protests of the last year, and the current riots, unique is that they have directly targeted the Army and ISI, the real power brokers in Pakistan. Who knows where this goes? But, US should prepare for major political instability and all the predictable and unpredictable consequences.
Why Now? Why is this different? Tensions with the Army and ISI have been brewing since Khan was ousted as PM unceremoniously in April 2022. He is popular and his PTI party has been rallying and protesting for months. The Pakistani Army and ISI apparently decided the risk of short term violence from arresting Khan was preferable to allowing him to continue rallying popular support. Until now they had largely been untouchable, pulling the strings behind the scenes and forcing comparatively powerless politicians to fight among themselves and take the brunt of the public’s ire for Pakistan’s ongoing governance failures.
This time it’s different. Rioters have broken into the homes of Pakistani military commanders. They have reportedly attacked the ISI headquarters. They set the Radio Pakistan building on fire. It appears police have fired on protesters in select cases but the military hasn’t intervened with a heavy hand—yet.
What’s Next? With the Army in the public’s crosshairs, the results of this bout of protests is more unpredictable. What is certain is the country is likely to become more unstable. Which is remarkable because Pakistan is already in dire straits, confronting political paralysis, complete economic mismanagement and debt default, and surging terrorist violence.