West urgently needs to step up its game: time is working to Russia’s advantage

Article by: Hans Petter Midttun

Russia could never defeat Ukraine militarily, but that is not the plan. The longer the war drags on, the more likely Russia is to achieve victory because of the mounting economic damage to Ukraine. If the West wants Russia to lose and Ukraine to win, it needs a new strategy, now.

When assessing the support needed to counter the Russian war in Ukraine, a proper understanding of the Russian strategy is crucial. If seen as a conventional war, the requirements are different than seen through the prism of hybrid war.

Why? The former focus on the destruction of military capabilities and the occupation of territory. Russian success or failure is measured in terms of the scale of its destruction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the territory it occupies. Occupying “only” parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblast (and all of Crimea), analysts and experts tend to conclude that Putin has failed to achieve any of his strategic objectives.

The assessment is correct in the sense that since the war continues, Russia has obviously not reached its desired end state.