In his Twitter thread, Mykola Bielieskov, Research Fellow at National Institute for Strategic Studies under the Ukrainian President, argues that the Ukrainian troops are not necessarily going to continue conducting large-scale counteroffensives during the winter time.
I am going to voice an uncommon idea as to these days’ expectations out of UA forces, but… So, let’s slow down a little bit narrative “Where the Ukrainian forces are going to advance next soon?” The reason is not to create a trap of high expectations. Now let’s explain my perspective.
But also 2022 campaign was very challenging, demanding, and in the end exhausting for Ukrainian forces. Nine months of high-intensity interstate war is really a taxing thing. People need rest and equipment – proper maintenance.
In warfare (especially land warfare), not only the enemy is causing a major strain but the very task of projecting power is very demanding. And there can’t be a continuous sequence of actions, it’s activities and then some regrouping.
Second. Yes, Ukraine is pushing Russians at Luhansk Oblast but at the same time has to repel constant Russia’s assaults at Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar directions. There are dozens of daily Russian attacks in these three directions with an unprecedented level of ferocity.
For Ukraine, it’s better to exploit this Russian stubbornness and inflict major damage on Russians through active defense.
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