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Russia’s nightmare comes true. HIMARS altering the course of the war in Ukraine, but for how long?

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Article by: Anatolii Shara, Anastasia Koberska
Edited by: Morgan Foster, Matthew Wickham
While experts debate whether the Russo-Ukrainian war is hybrid, conventional, fourth generation, or fifth generation based on the weapons used, one thing is certain: artillery directly impacts the war’s outcome. It is a critical factor regardless of classification, and the introduction of HIMARS has changed the decisive role of artillery. Ukraine’s use of HIMARS has stalled Russia from its scorching of Ukrainian land. But what’s next? Is this the beginning of a turning point, or will Russia adapt?

It was Russia’s war to win. All odds pointed in their favour…

Both the Ukrainian and Russian armies apply artillery on the battlefield according to completely different strategies. Both Ukrainian and Russian artillery systems were similar at the start of the war, though Russia had far more weapons and ammunition than Ukraine.

Volodymyr Datsenko, an analyst and member of the Ukroboronprom procurement system reform team, indicates that Russia had five times more ammunition than Ukraine did at that time. Moreover, Ukrainian artillery has suffered from routine wear and lack of ammunition as it has been used continuously since 2014.

Each side used artillery based on their available resources. In the first month of the war, the Armed Forces of Ukraine used drones and Special Operation Forces to identify Russian supply convoys and eliminate them with targeted artillery, causing significant losses to the Russians, who were unprepared for such attacks.

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