conf. univ. dr. Silviu NATE*
Abstract. In the case of Russia’s illegitimate war in Ukraine, the security dilemma is translated into the impossibility of genuine cooperation, a situation in which neither side is willing to accept a significant compromise. From here, we are currently witnessing a lose-lose scenario in which neither Ukraine nor Russia gains anything important soon, putting us on the austere ground of the worst-case scenario. This state undoubtedly leads to an increase in the spiral of armaments and the prolongation of the war. Russia is pushing relations with other states to zero-sum games because the soft-power tools at hand are insufficient. The only way to gain a strategic ascendancy is only possible by generating crises and increasing instability on the opposing side. Neither Russia nor China has yet reached the profile needed to balance the United States in the system of international relations, and the cumulative power of democratic actors exceeds the hegemonic capabilities that Russia or China could aspire to. Moreover, Putin’s fear that Russia will fall into geopolitical isolation is demonstrated by his obsessive references to multipolarity and direct calculations of international relations theory.
Keywords: Ukraine, security dilemma, geopolitics, China, Russia
DILEMA SECURITĂŢII ŞI PROIECŢIA RĂZBOIULUI PRELUNGIT
După aproximativ patru luni de război, Rusia a schimbat tactica de la acţiuni ofensive pe zone extinse la lupte concentrate pe zone mici, care au generat pierderi semnificative şi în tabăra ucraineană.
La o primă vedere, nevoia lui Putin pentru un succes de etapă poate conduce la puncte de inflexiune, aruncând pe hartă contraste strategice cu Rusia, care doreşte să marcheze cu orice preţ un rezultat militar, şi o Ucraina hotărâtă să se apere şi să contra-atace în forţă.