Stephen BLANK
The recent crisis generated by Russia around Ukraine has focused attention on those two states. But we should rather rethink security issues in the larger Black Sea basin. For example, the concurrent exposure of GRU involvement in exploding ammunition dumps in the Czech Republic that are connected to an assassination attempt against Bulgarian arms dealer Emelian Gebrev to block Ukrainian acquisition of that ammunition indicates that Russia’s war with Ukraine is merely part of a larger and longer war against Europe.1 Ukraine is hardly the only front in this wider, unceasing, and multi-dimensional war.2 Indeed, Russia’s 2019 refusal to destroy the missiles built in violation of the INF treaty reaffirms the integration of nuclear weapons and threats into Russian instruments of strategy if not actual war fighting.3
Therefore, we need an equally multi-domain-military, political, and economic strategy to deter Russian threats and restore security around the Black Sea. Regional tensions have only partly dissipated. By May 2021 Russia had distributed over 500,000 passports to residents in the Donbas.4 Meanwhile its forces are leaving their heavy equipment in place while naval and amphibious forces remain to exert continuing pressure and establish a future baseline.5 Moscow has also violated international law and agreements by unilaterally seizing the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait and closing much of the Black Sea for six months to conduct exercises.6
Senior Fellow. Foreign Policy Research Institute
1 “Boryana Dzhembazova and Michael Schwirtz, “Russian Spy Unit Investigated For Links To Bulgarian Explosions,” www.nytimes.com/2021/04/28, April 28, 2021; “Bulgaria To Expel Russian Diplomat Over Arms Depot Blasts,” Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, April 29, 2021, www.rferl.org
2 Dmitri Trenin quoted in Ivo H. Daalder, “Responding to Russia’s Resurgence
Not Quiet on the Eastern Front,” https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2017-10-16/ responding-russias-resurgence; Dmitry (Dima) Adamsky, Cross-Domain Strategy: The Current Russian Art of Strategy, Institut Francais Des Relations Internationales (IFRI), Proliferation Papers, No. 54, 2015
3 “Russia Says it Won’t Destroy Missiles U.S. Claims Break INF Treaty,” https://www.themoscowtimes. com/2019/03/19/russia-says-it-wont-destroy-missiles-us-claims-break-inf-treaty-a64864, March 19, 2019
4 “What Is Behind Russia’s Passportization of Donbas,?” https://warsawinstitute.org/behind-russias-passportization-donbas/, May 7, 2021
5 Nolan Peterson, “Russia Blinks First, Announces Troop Drawdown Near Ukraine Border,” https:// coffeeordie.com/russia-drawdown-ukraine/, April 22, 2021
6 Yuri Zoria, “Putin May Have Pulled Back From Ukraine’s Broder But He did Not Back Down Experts Warn,” Euromaidan Press,?April 26, 2021; Chris Brown, “Vladimir Putin Calls Off His Army But It May Not Be Going Far,” https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-troop-withdrawal-1.5999367?ref=mobilerss &cmp=newsletter_CBC%20News%20Top%20Headlines%20%20%E2%80%93%20Morning_1613_261015, April 24, 2021; “Russia Restricts Movement Of ‘Foreign Warships’ in Black Sea,” https://world. einnews.com/article/539364204?lcf=Up_U2EZMuBW3HFW3enqhYg%3D%3D&pg=2, April 24, 2021